Comments on: Drafting High School Pitching

By: Haudricourt: Explaining Milwaukee's Pitching Woes - Milwaukee Brewers Blog - Bernie's Crew

Fri, 27 Nov 2009 16:29:10 +0000

[...] While they have more upside, the chances of their making the big leagues is next to nothing. This article suggests a high school pitcher has a less than 3% chance at making a significant impact in the big [...]

By: Some Thoughts on the Giants’ Draft « Triples Alley

Some Thoughts on the Giants’ Draft « Triples Alley — Sun, 21 Jun 2009 01:53:33 +0000

[...] It should be noted, however, that high school pitchers drafted in the first round have a depressingly low success rate. In the ‘90’s, roughly eight percent of High School pitchers became regulars for their team (2 WAR per season) and three percent became stars while under their team’s control. 70% of high school pitchers become busts, and averaged .438 WAR a season. Hitters from either the collegiate or high school ranks had a rate almost double that. (Hat Tip: Future Redbirds) [...]

By: BG

BG — Mon, 25 May 2009 01:30:32 +0000

Erik, IMO you have a risk of upside vs the risk of a bust.

You also have a measured risk in drafting a guy like Kozma with such a low ceiling that if he doesn’t reach his 90th percentile+ is a bust as a first rounder anyway.

So why draft so conservatively that you almost ensure a bust when you combine low ceiling, draft position, and the numbers in general that work against all prospects?

In other words if you draft a low end guy who is statistically going to fail at a high rate … say 80-85% of the time vs a guy with a huge upside that may succeed 20% of the time.

By: erik

erik — Sun, 24 May 2009 00:02:11 +0000

I would not write off Kopp like that. He’s healthy, he’s striking out batters at a good clip and getting ground balls. I’ve been hearing he’s up to 96. He might have more upside than either Lynn or Mortensen.

It’s not college, and it’s not high school. it’s just that the pitchers they have in the system lack “upside”, or they have fizzled.

By: fpslackers

fpslackers — Sat, 23 May 2009 21:38:26 +0000

erik, you’re right about Garza who seems to be replicating his good season last year with another one this year. Maybe your strategy is the best. It seems fair more likely to draft a hitter in the first round that’s going to turn into a solid player than a pitcher. Load up on pitchers in the sandwich and second and third rounds and eventually you’ll land one who will turn into something good. My problem with this though is we have been doing this strategy to some extent and it hasn’t really worked.
Lynn, Gorgen, Mortensen, Todd, Kopp, Furnish, Daley, McCormick, Herron, Webber, Wilson are some examples of this in recent years.
Mort and Lynn seem to be the only ones with a good shot at seeing a major league rotation someday. Tough to say if either is really top of rotation material. I’d like to think they could be and both seem to be doing well this year but I doubt the general consensus among scouts would agree.
Hard to say what the best strategy is.

By: giveml

giveml — Fri, 22 May 2009 02:48:41 +0000

I can agree with you about hitters vs. pitchers, especially college hitters. But I think it is a bit flawed to consider only the years the pitcher will be under team control. I think it is pretty obvious that the only real chance the Cardinals have to sign a top free agent pitcher is if he is one they developed.

If you look at the best active starting pitchers with 1000+ innings you will find that HS pitchers outnumber college pitchers rougly 2-to-1. College guys are more likely to make it, but also more likely to be ordinary. The goal of drafting a pitcher in the first round, if you choose to do that, should be to end up with a top of the rotation starter, not a middle reliever.

By: erik

erik — Thu, 21 May 2009 20:00:36 +0000

Matt Garza is pretty top of the rotation.

07 you have Rick Porcello, 08 Casey Kelly is looking good. I catch your drift. Still too early to call.

I think I’m against drafting any pitcher early. Take a hitter in the first round, then load up on pitching with your sandwich-2nd-3rd round picks.

By: fpslackers

fpslackers — Thu, 21 May 2009 19:35:45 +0000

Let’s take a look at all of the pitchers selected from picks 15-30 (since that’s where the Cards are most likely to be picking) from 2002 onward….

2002:
HS: Scott Kazmir, Cole Hamels, Matt Cain
Col: Roger Ring, Bobby Brownlie, Jeremy Guthrie, Joe Blanton, Derick Grigsby, Ben Fritz

2003:
HS: Jeff Allison, Chad Billingsley
Col: Chad Cordero, David Aardsma, Bradley Sullivan

2004:
HS: Tim Elbert, Phil Hughes, Steven Waldrop, Eric Hurley
Col: David Purcey, Chris Lambert, Glen Perkins, Taylor Tankersley, Matthew Campbell

2005:
HS: Chris Volstad, Mark Pawelek, Aaron Thompson
Col: Lance Broadway, Cesar Carrillo, Brian Bogusevic, Matt Garza, Craig Hansen, Joey Devine, Jacob Marceaux

2006:
HS: Jeremy Jeffress, Kyle Drabeck, Colton Willems
Col: Brett Sinkbeil, Ian Kennedy, Bryan Morris, Daniel Bard, Kyle McCulloch, Adam Ottavino

I’ll stop there because we won’t be able to tell as much from 2007 and 2008 yet. But look at that list. I don’t think there’s a single top of the rotation starter from the college group. The high schoolers seem to be the better prospects and have a better chance of turning into better pitchers. This is why I’m pro-draft HS pitchers early. Actually I’m not as much pro-draft HS pitchers early as I am against drafting college pitchers early. The better college pitchers are drafted near the beginning of the first round.

By: Alex C

Alex C — Wed, 20 May 2009 18:14:36 +0000

Also, I don’t think avg WAR per season is a very good measure of “upside.” But that is a side issue.

By: Alex C

Alex C — Wed, 20 May 2009 18:10:27 +0000

Are you using just the first six years, or the actual six years of service time? If it is the former it is going to distort your data from what you are trying to measure.

Additionally, as you note above, HS pitchers have been much more successful in recent years (perhaps due to teams being more conscious of the risks shown in the 90s). Your endpoints end up grossly overstating the case. Look at the good first high schoolers already pitching in majors since the 2002 draft:

2002: Greinke, Kazmir, Hamels, Cain
2003: Danks, Billingsley
2004: (Homer Bailey, Phil Hughes – too soon to call)
2005: Chris Volstad
2006: Clayton Kershaw
2007: Rick Porcello
2008: obviously no one yet

And there are other who still have time to turn into something. If you ran your analysis over these years, I think you might actually find the high school pitchers outperforming the college ones.