The draft is now only 2 weeks from tomorrow, and you will soon be getting a chance to see a lot more potential picks on tv as the NCAA regionals and super regionals get underway the next 2 weekends. This draft is still very fluid, even more so than recent years, but I thought it would still be fun to get some kind of mock down to just get an idea of how the board might shake out. Of course anything this early is likely to be way off, but I think there is some concensus starting to form of who the top 10 players or so are in this draft. However, after you get through those players, teams could start pulling some real stunners. With this mock I just went down to the Cardinals’ pick, check out my best guess on who we will take after the jump.
1. Nationals-Stephen Strasburg, RHP, San Diego St.
It will cost a fortune, but even the Nationals can’t screw this one up.
2. Mariners-Dustin Ackley, 1B/OF, North Carolina
The Mariners have loaded up on pitching in recent drafts, but this year they will go with the best available bat.
3. Padres-Kyle Gibson, RHP, Missouri
The Padres are known for reaching to save money. Gibson is a good pitcher, but he isn’t the second best pitcher in the draft. However, he might be willing to take a little below slot.
4. Pirates-Alex White, RHP, North Carolina
The Pirates are in need of talent all over the field, and White may be the best prospect still on the board.
5. Orioles-Tanner Scheppers, RHP, St. Paul
High ceiling righty would add another great arm to the stable the O’s are putting together.
6. Giants-Tyler Matzek, LHP, California HS
The Giants had great success with a couple of high school hurlers in 2007 when they drafted Madison Bumgarner and Tim Alderson. They could look to go that way again if the top prep pitcher is still on the board.
7. Braves-Donovan Tate, CF, Georgia HS
Everyone knows the Braves love local talent, and Tate could be the best athlete in the draft.
8. Reds-Aaron Crow, RHP, Fort Worth
Supposedly the Reds were close to pulling the trigger on Crow last year. I doubt they would pass on him again.
9. Tigers-Jacob Turner, RHP, Missouri HS
The Tigers aren’t afraid to spend big money in the draft, so they likely won’t hesitate to meet the big demands of Turner.
10. Nationals-Mike Leake, RHP, Arizona St.
Leake has been arguably the 2nd best pitcher in college baseball this year. The Nationals would love to add another fast mover to go along with Strasburg.
11. Rockies-Zack Wheeler, RHP, Georgia HS
Wheeler is a big, projectable righty with 3 plus pitches and good control.
12. Royals-Matt Purke, LHP, Texas HS
The Royals are another team that has shown they will take the best available player. Purke might have the best stuff out of any high school pitcher.
13. Athletics-Rex Brothers, LHP, Lipscomb
Billy Beane likes college players, and has had good success with collegiate lefties. Brothers is probably the top college lefty in the draft.
14. Rangers-Shelby Miller, RHP, Texas HS
The Rangers would be thrilled if this Texas fireballer makes it to them.
15. Indians-Tim Wheeler, OF, Sacramento St.
Wheeler is one of the few collegiate position players that is a legit first round pick this year.
16. Diamondbacks-Andrew Oliver, LHP, Oklahoma St.
Oliver has had a down year, but he has a history of success and plus stuff from the left side.
17. Diamondbacks-Rich Poythress, 1B, Georgia
Poythress has a big time bat, but he is limited defensively. He is probably a little bit of a reach at this point, but the D-backs may be looking to save a little money.
18. Marlins-Chad James, LHP, Oklahoma HS
The Marlins love prep pitchers, especially ones who can throw 95 from the left side.
19. Cardinals-Eric Arnett, RHP, Indiana
Arnett is the kind of big college righthander with plus stuff that the Cardinals love. Luhnow has also shown that he will go off the board of what many people think will happen, and you could say that this would be a bit of a reach. They have also shown that they will pass on guys who fall because of some questions about signability, and that is the case in this mock as I have them passing on Grant Green who was once considered a top 5 pick.
Entries (RSS)
I love the draft, but if the Cards take Arnett in the 1st…I am done…I will take up basket weaving.
Nice mock though Few, though I personally dont see a scenario in which Grant Green isnt a top 15 pick.
But stranger things have happened.
ive heard Alex White’s stock is dropping fast. i wouldnt be surprised if the pirates take sheppers or crow instead
It seems as if we should all be prepared to be underwhelmed.
I still hold hope they will surprise us and go high upside HS player in the 1st, they did list Aaron Hicks as their plan B if Wallace as gone last year. If that report is correct, that shows their willingness to take a risk/reward toolsy guy early.
We touched on Mychal Givens on Cardstalk a bit, but he is a the type of guy I think they might look at if they do follow the Hicks blueprint from 2008.
That being said, odds are pretty good that they end up with an Arnett, Jenkins, Heckathorn type at #19
Jenkins is their kind of guy. Unorthodox. Won’t sell jeans. Results. College. Sinker. Natch.
Ummm…If Grant Green is on the board and they don’t take him–I will probably go postal.
I’m not sure what to think about Green. Correct me if I’m wrong, but no one seems sure he’s really a SS, or think his power potential is anything above average.
that seems to be the thought. i have seen reports saying he doesn’t have the range for short or the power for third. the thing about him is that he is probably in the 10-15 range talent wise, but was seen as a top of the draft pick going into the year. that sets up the perfect scenario for plummeting when you have a guy that has good talent and would be an early pick if he would sign for slot, but will probably ask for a lot of money b/c people were saying he would get a lot of money earlier in the year.
love talking draft. we ought to have a chat before the draft. p’fork, fewgood, would you be up for that?
My understanding is Green will be an avg defensive SS, with 15 to 20 HR potential..ala JJ Hardy, I guess. If that is the case, which seemed to be before he had an average year at USC….then he is worthy of a top 5 to 10 pick…but if he falls to #19 its probably due to contract demands..so the Cards will likely pass on him for the very same reason.
He is still pretty lanky, not sure when he fills out if he can stick at SS…but it may increase his power.
In BA’s latest write up, they said he has good range, hands and arm…I tend to trust them sometimes, even over my own eyes.
Yep, I am up for anything draft related. I have been trying to catch as many games as possible to see these guys live, its tough..hopefully after the regional games this weekend, I can have a pretty good working knowledge.
So anytime is good for me, but I would probably have a bit more to offer after watching a full slate of college games this weekend.
I also have the Aflac game on DVR….I can pull that up and give some amateur scouting reports if needed.
Nice mock, fgc, though I think that if Mike Minor is still on the board at 19 (as you have here), the Cards would be more likely to take him, as an organisational weakness.
i’m not a real minor fan. someone who i know that has seen him a couple times said he was jeremy sowers 2, with a little better velo.
Anyone else think we draft a HS position player? That’s the way I see it shaping up, for some reason. I just don’t want to see the Cards draft a college pitcher just for the sake of drafting a college pitcher. I envision the Cards grabbing a toolsy HS player with their first pick.
weak year for position players in general, but especially for high school position players. luke bailey was probably the top guy, but he went down with tommy john surgery. the top guys now seem to be matt davidson, bobby borchering, and jiovanni mier, but they all have question marks. davidson has solid tools across the board and really good power, but he struggled his junior year and some wonder about his desire. borchering has a solid stroke from both sides, but will have to move to first and probably doesn’t have the power you would look for at that position. mier is a slick fielder, but he doesn’t offer a whole lot with the bat.
I don’t know what to think about Arnett. Everyone keeps saying he has a mid 90s fastball but I sat right behind the guns at one of his starts on a warm day and he was 89-92 and only went above that range once from what I remember.
I agree he seems like the Cardinals kinda guy but at the time I was thinking 2nd or 3rd round. Now I don’t know if they’ll reach that much to get him at 19. He won’t be there in the 2nd round. I love his size and mechanics but I don’t think he has the stuff to be anything more than what we hope Lance Lynn will be.
I don’t have a finger on the west coast guys like I do the SEC and Midwest players, but everything I have heard on Green suggest that at worst he will play 2nd in the majors and above average pop for that position. He feels like he fits the Cardinals draft philosophy for this kinda slot.
Picking 19th-disappointment. This is why I was hoping the Cards would lose their last six games last year instead of winning them all. Not throw them, but if you lose, it’s a good thing.
Fewgoodcards – What are your thoughts on Mike Trout? After reading up on him a little, he seems like a guy they might be interested in.
he’s definitely the hot name right now. he has a lot of tools especially speed, but he is way too raw with the bat for me. he is a guy that is benefiting from the complete lack of quality position players in this draft and is moving up boards b/c he looks like he could be a player, but he has no history of success against quality competition. someone will jump on him, but he’s not a first round pick for me. i would much rather wait and try and get someone like trayce thompson in the 2nd round.
If the Cards have the option to take Grant Green and pass for any other reason than it will be impossible to sign him, I’m going to flip. The Cardinals lack a big-time SS prospect in the farm system and it is a position we haven’t filled with a player who is a legitimate threat in the field and at the plate since Renteria. We always sign a utility player or get a SS specifically for his glove and it seems we have no intentions of changing that practice with the Khalil Greene move that has worked out so well so far… NOT!
You could argue Niko is a legit prospect because he has a lot of tools and is still young, but he hasn’t managed to do much this year. I think Kozma is regressing tremendously and creeping very close to “bust” status with his bat AND glove this year. Tyler Green projects as an average SS with a solid glove who will maybe hit around .250 any given year. Brendan Ryan plays tremendous defense but also doesn’t project to hit much more than .250. I like him as a utility player for the Cards, but nothing more especially not an everyday starter at SS.
I realize our need for pitching prospects, but there is also a same need for a solid middle infielder. We filled a huge need at 3B with the Walrus last year when nobody expected him to be availible, hopefully the Cards will take Green the same way if he is availible. I also realize not many teams have SS who are legitimate threats in the field and at the plate, but if people are comparing a kid to JJ Hardy, I think we would be crazy to pass up. He’s not going to lose us any games with his glove and might win us several with his abilities at the plate, something that we haven’t been able to say about a Cardinals SS prospect in awhile.
All my opinions could change pending the Cards feelings of confidence regarding the possiblity of signing Miguel Angel Sano when the International signing period starts in July.
did you just “NOT?”.
I don’t study this as much as most, but I sat behind the plate at the Big 10 tourney in Columbus and watched Arnett hit 97 twice on the scouts guns…once in the 6th inning. His breaking stuff was nice too. I think his stock has shot up from the start of the season…there may be others on the board better at #19 but you could do worse…much worse.
Arnett is one of those pitchers who could be a future number 2 or 3 starter. He needs to develop a changeup and learn to throw the ball in to batters. i think he hit around 15 batters this year I think maybe more. I saw him pitch a game at IU and he was hittin 95 in the 6th inning and hes gone 10 innings this year and gone 9 innings maybe 5 times and has thrown 140 pitches one game and was still throwing in the mid-90s. He struggled against Louisville in the NCAA Regionals, which may hurt his stock. If IU’s number 2 pitcher had Arnett’s numbers he would be a guy the Cards would pick up because he is a lanky Left-hander who reminds me of Mark Mulder, but without a history of injuries. The Cards picking Arnett here would be a good decision in the long term.
arnett definitely has the tools. his fastball/slider combo is very tough. he also has a big, strong frame and holds his stuff deep into games. the only real questions with him have to do with his lack of a history of pitching well.
Here is KLaw’s take on Arnett (free content):
“Indiana right-hander Eric Arnett moves up from No. 48 to No. 32. He had been hitting 95-96 mph all season but sat in that range in his first outing in the Big Ten tournament, continuing to show a sharp slider and hold his velocity deep into games. Lack of track record and high workloads are still a concern, but he has No. 1 starter potential.”
He seems to be pretty high on him, especially when saying he has #1 starter potential. I tend to value Law’s opinions pretty highly, and he sees a lot of potential in Arnett. I’m gonna have to see some more on Arnett before deciding if I agree with KLaw on this one though.