MVN Mock Draft: Rex ‘n effect
Posted on May 26th, 2009 by erik in 2009 MLB Draft, tags: chad jenkins, rex brothersEvan Brunell of MVN asked me to participate in an all-blogger mock draft, to which I said “yes!” I took Rex Brothers, a left-handed pitcher out of Lipscomb. I drafted who I think the Cardinals would pick, not necessarily who I would’ve picked, although I do like Brothers. Other possible option that are plausible are: Sacramento State OF Tim Wheeler, Kentucky LHP James Paxton, Indiana RHP Eric Arnett, Kennesaw State RHP Chad Jenkins or HS outfielders Mike Trout and Everett Williams.
It’s very possible the Cardinals could take any of the outfielders and I think that might be my preferred scenario. I probably would have taken Paxton if not for a report about his velocity being down 2-4 MPH in his last start. Jenkins seems to be the Cardinals cup o’tea and I wouldn’t be surprised to see the Cardinals pop him. College? Check. Sinker? Yep. A little unorthodox? You bet. Results? Try a 5:1 K/BB ratio and a 2.11 FIP on for size. Will he sell jeans? You tell me.
Big upside? Well, he is big. And he has big league upside. Is he the #1-2 starter upside that we’re all hoping for? No, but I’m not sure anyone will fit that bill at #19, unless it’s for signability reasons.
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brothers is a solid pick. his control worries me a little, but there will be questions with anyone at this spot. he fits a very big need in this organization, and even if he doesn’t wind up a starter he would be one heck of a complement to motte and perez in the future pen.
you said in the text that brothers was a lefty…yet the picture is of a righty…what gives?
it is jenkins.
VolsnCards5, I believe that is a picture of Chad Jenkins, the RHP from Kennessaw State.
The pic is of Jenkins, the other pitcher Erik was discussing at the bottom.
And for the record, I’m not a fan of Jenkins. Brothers isn’t too bad, though I like a couple of the other college lefties better. (Oliver in particular.)
i used to be a big fan of oliver, but i heard he has completely lost his curveball this year and now doesn’t even throw it anymore. that used to be his best pitch, so if he is now just fastball/change with a slider he just started throwing, i don’t think i would be jumping on him at 19. i think brothers and paxton both have better stuff now as both have plus fastballs and breaking balls.
yep just figured it you…may help if i read things more than once
it out…not it you
after watching that video on brothers the stuff does look good, but i don’t think he is going to be high on the mechanics guru’s lists.
FGC (and Erik), if Brothers’ mechanics are that suspect, why should this system want any part of him? Haven’t we had enough breakdown-prone pitchers drafted in the last decade to last us for the rest of the century? And how can you possibly justify spending a first-round choice on someone who’ll be “one heck of a complement … in the future pen”? I don’t mean to pick on Erik here — after all, he’s trying to think like Mo and the scouting staff — but this choice gives me cold chills, out of the possibility that he may be right.
we aren’t the only ones that think highly of him. if you look around the internet he is universally considered a first round pick, and many believe he is the best college lefthander in the draft. the guy has 2 plus pitches and struck out 120 in 84.2 innings this year. he has talent.
as for the bullpen comment, i’m saying that is probably the worst case scenario b/c of the 2 plus pitches from the left side. also, you have to realize that this draft isn’t very strong, and if you can get a dominating set-up man with the 19th pick that is probably a lot better than what most teams are going to get. in a draft like last year or 2005, yeah that would be a disappointment, but you have to consider what is actually available.
you also need to realize that every year there’s a draft, 60% or more of the first rounders aren’t even going to make the big leagues. I like Rex because while his ceiling isn’t sky-high, he is universally accepted as very good and barring him injuring himself he’s a relatively safe bet to be at least a very good reliever. I’m not talking loogy, I’m talking 8th or maybe even 9th inning.
but like fgc said, there’s no reason to believe he can’t start right now.
where’s the video on Brothers? few, you mentioned it. Thanks.
just click on the link to my write up on the mock.
Does anyone have any info on Mark Serrano, SP from Oral Roberts? I was looking at NCAA pitching stats, and this guy is near the top in a lot of categories (K, K/9, ERA). He’s 2nd in K/9, behind only Strasburg.
Statistically, he’s probably the top Senior SP, but I’ve never heard of the guy before. He wasn’t drafted last year as a Junior. Does anyone know anything about him? He might be an intriguing guy in this year’s draft.
A couple items on the video of Brothers…
1. That has to be one of the shortest arm actions I have seen. It is a bit odd but not all bad. It appears that his elbow is pulling his hand the motion and that his elbow isn’t getting too elevated relieving stress on his shoulder from the back side. It seems to me that the would be extra stress on the front side of his shoulder as he pulls the arm through–scap loading issue maybe…
2. The arm motion hides the ball for a long time. He is probably getting away with a fair amount of deception just from that. This is something that holds up through the majors, but will become less of a benefit as he continues.
3. It looks like he has quite a bit of glove-side run on his fastball. His slider looks like it really fooled a few hitters. Both of these pitches though will run in to righthanders making the mistakes much easier to hit. He is going to have to develop some stuff that moves arm-side (cutters/change) for balance–if not, he definitely looks like a loogy.
i’m by no means a mechanics guru, but i just thought what you were describing where he keeps the hand down and the elbow up is the dreaded inverted L.
I’m not draft guru so i may be out of line here… but why waste another pick on a future middle to back of the rotation/bullpen arm? Don’t we have plenty of those already?
I say take the highest upside bat. I’d like to think that we’ll eventually have enough pieces in the farm system to put together a trade for a top of the rotation pitcher, once Carp *finally* breaks down.
Flame away….
here’s the deal. if there is a top arm available that falls b/c of signability, then Brothers makes sense. I’d rather them grab a bat too.
bottom line: Something like 65% of all 1st rounders fail. 20 become bench player caliber players. 7% become average regulars and 8% become stars. w/brothers you will probably get a safe return on your investment. he’s not going to light the world on fire necessarily, no. I’m not really stumping for him. i’m not sure who at this moment i could be stumping for, honestly.
i’ve heard interesting things about everett williams, and tim wheeler seems to be their type of guy. this draft is pretty weak in terms of hitting, particularly college hitting.
FGC says, “if you look around the internet (Brothers) is universally considered a first round pick, and many believe he is the best college lefthander in the draft.” “Universally”? Not so. Interestingly, Kevin Goldstein at BP, whose opinions I value on such things, mentions him as a possibility for Washington’s second pick (guess who is the first), but does NOT foresee him going in the first round. He sees the team picking Tim Wheeler, while confessing that he basically can’t predict the way St. Louis will go.
In any event, even if he’s considered a “first round pick,” power arms with mechanics red flags don’t strike me as the way to go; see McCormick, M., Hawksworth, B., and so on.
FGC-
Not necesarrily. The should lead the arm through the motion–you only arrive at the inverted L or W if the elbow is lifted above the plane formed by the shoulders. Try lifting your elbow above you shoulder and then rotate your hand from a low position to above the elbow–I personally feel little pulls in my shoulder. Then try the same thing with you elbow lower than the plane of you shoulders–it is just easier on the joint.
Brothers as he breaks his hand looks to keep his elbow and hand below the plane of his shoulders, in this sense he is pretty sound mechanically. I have a major issue with how he loads the scapula and stretches his chest–namely he doesn’t. I think this suggest that he might be at his peak velocity wise or that he loses considerable velocity as he works through a game. I am looking at his motion and it is screaming LOOGY to me.
that’s why i think james or minor would be better picks. james has more potential, and minor is a starter plain and simple.
count me in the camp that is starting to like james, but i reserve the right to change my position until june 3.
I saw Jenkins pitch this year and he has the stuff to become a successful big league pitcher. He needs a little work on his throwing motion as his arm angles are not what you would like to see from a starting pitcher, so i have heard.
none the less Jenkins was the Atlantic Sun Pitcher of the Year, at one point in the season had a scoreless streak of 41 innings, not a single run given up in the month of april, 24.2 innings with out a walk, and threw two complete game shut outs, five complete games all together. not to mention he was an ESPN magazine second team academic all-district.
I also saw the matchup between brothers of lipscomb and kennesaw state’s other mlb prospect kyle heckathorn. Heckathorn threw nearly a complete game going 8.2 innings and was throwing a 94-96 fast ball with a real good looking slider in the mid to low 80′s. Brothers went eight and threw a gem as well as KSU beat LU 2-1.
thanks for the report. the more i read and see on jenkins, i am starting to become a big fan. he has a nice strong build, he has good stuff, and he throws a ton of strikes. baseball america says both his sinker and slider are plus pitches, so he definitely seems to fit the mold of what dave duncan looks for in a pitcher.
i’ve heard some rumors that the cards have been in on heckathorn as well.
i said about a month ago that heckathorn was luhnow’s type of guy. he is a big projectable righty with huge arm strength, control problems, and is projected to be a reliever. i would rather have jenkins, but luhnow loves velocity and heckathorn has plenty.
Jenkins was also just named a third team all-american. heckathorn was named to the pre season thrid team all american.