This is not a ranking of my top draft prospects, but rather the order I would draft these players if I were in charge of the draft for the Cardinals. I only went down to #19 because at worst the Cardinals are going to have a chance to draft one of these guys. Of course I am probably being a little too optimistic putting guys like Matthew Purke and Donovan Tate on the list because even if they do fall (as some have recently projected they might) I doubt DeWitt will be willing to match their price tag. Of course we could always hope that he has been paying attention to Rick Porcello this season and has realized that elite talent is worth the elite price tag. Well, enough with the negative. Check out my list and rip it apart. This post is designed to generate draft discussion. Let me know your favorites.
1. Stephen Strasburg, RHP, San Diego St.
If any team had the first pick in this year’s draft and didn’t take Strasburg first overall, they should be immediately contracted.
2. Tanner Scheppers, RHP, St. Paul
He has the injury history, but his stuff is also a step above anyone else left on the board. Think Matt Garza.
3. Aaron Crow, RHP, Fort Worth
Crow also has great stuff, but its not quite on par with Scheppers. Still, he pounds the zone with a great sinker and a wipeout slider.
4. Tyler Matzek, LHP, California HS
Lefty with a nice frame, plus velocity, 4 usable pitches, and some polish. Can you really ask for more?
5. Kyle Gibson, RHP, Missouri
He doesn’t have the upside of Alex White, but I think he is a safer bet to be a solid #3 starter. He doesn’t have the elite fastball velocity you look for, but his slider is a devastating pitch and he has excellent command.
6. Jacob Turner, RHP, Missouri HS
Has established himself as the top high school righthander available. He has touched 97 mph and backs it up with a nice slider. Plus he is the local favorite.
7. Zack Wheeler, RHP, Georgia HS
A lot of people have Shelby Miller ranked ahead of Wheeler, but until I see more video on him I can’t jump him ahead of one of my favorite players in this draft. Wheeler still has a lot of projection left, but he already has 3 very good pitches including a fastball that reaches 95 mph. He also throws a lot of strikes.
8. Dustin Ackley, OF, North Carolina
He is a sure bet to hit, but no one has seen him play outfield and there are questions about his power with a wood bat. He would be a lot higher on the list if I was just straight ranking prospects, but the Cardinals have enough guys that profile to play a corner outfield spot and don’t really have the power to be an asset there.
9. Alex White, RHP, North Carolina
He has plus stuff from the right side, but he has never dominated like his stuff would indicate. Still, he is a safer bet than the high school arms still on the board, and his stuff is just as good.
10. Matt Purke, LHP, Texas HS
Purke has better velocity than Matzek, but he also has more effort in his delivery. He may have the best 1-2 punch of any lefty in the draft, but he needs to work on refining his delivery, command, and a third pitch.
11. Grant Green, SS, USC
Has been somewhat of a disappointment, but he has a track record of success in college and with wood on the cape. May not stick at short long term, but at worst he is a 15-20 homer bat at the 2nd base position.
12. Shelby Miller, RHP, Texas HS
The prototypical Texas fireballer, Miller can crank the heater up to 98 mph. He throws a plus curve every once in a while, but it needs work. Miller has as much arm strength as anyone in the draft, but he doesn’t have the polish of the guys already mentioned on this list.
13. Mike Leake, RHP, Arizona St.
He gets the knock of being a guy that pitches above his stuff, but people don’t realize that his stuff is actually pretty darn good as he pitches with a 90-94 mph sinker, a plus slider, an above average change, and also mixes in a curve. Add to that his athleticism, bulldog mentality, and very good control and you have quite a package.
14. Donovan Tate, OF, Georgia HS
The best overall athlete in the draft, Tate has the makings of a 5-tool stud in center in the mold of Adam Jones. There are some questions which include making some adjustments with the bat and his commitment to play football at North Carolina.
15. Chad James, LHP, Oklahoma HS
James is more in the mold of Shelby Miller as far as high school hurlers go. He has the arm strength which includes a 95 mph fastball and shows a nice breaker, but he needs to improve his polish. James is a good athlete, so he should be able to find a consistent delivery and repeat it.
16. Bobby Borchering, 3B, Florida HS
Borchering offers a quick bat and impressive power from both sides of the plate. At 6’4″ 200 pounds he has improved his defense at third, but some feel he will have to move across the diamond after he fills out. Still, he is probably the safest bet among the high school position players to hit.
17. Rex Brothers, LHP, Lipscomb
A collegiate lefty with a plus fastball/slider duo, Brothers can dial it up around 96 mph. He is short and stocky and doesn’t have great control, but he does maintain his velocity deep into starts. However many believe his control, delivery, and lack of a quality third pitch mean he is destined for a big league bullpen. Similar to Blue Jays rookie lefty Brett Cecil.
18. Chad Jenkins, RHP, Kennesaw St.
Jenkins is built like a horse at 6’4″ 225 pounds and matches that frame with good stuff. He pounds the strike zone with a sinker that he throws from 90-93 and a plus slider. He also throws a change and shows an advanced feel for pitching.
19. Tyler Skaggs, LHP, California HS
Skaggs just screams projection at 6’4″ 180 pounds, but he already shows good stuff. He runs his fastball up to 92, but usually works at 88-90 and adds in a plus curve. He is a good athlete and repeats his smooth delivery very well.
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i’d be ok with a high school lefty…but if turner or wheeler fall to us, i will be ecstatic(until we don’t take them that is)
wheeler is very good and signable, i don’t think there is any way he makes it to us. turner is also very good, but he is wanting a huge contract. i think there is a slim chance he could make it to us and hopefully being a local kid would put some heat on them to pull the trigger.
the only reason i think they would consider turner is his cardinal connections with worrell being his coach, matheny’s son being on the team, etc. even as i write this, my gut give me the “no” sensation. maybe that’s the tacos.
i like this list. skaggs is someone i know sickels said he has a good intuitive feeling about. i do feel that way as well.
i’m also glad to see i’m not the only chad jenkins fan. my wildest dream is that somehow mike leake falls to us.
FWIW I’m sure scouts have seen him play CF, there have been more than a handful of games where he’s played both 1B and CF in the same game and a couple where he’s even played the whole game in CF.
Also, for the second time this week now Grant Green has been predicted as the Cards pick, first over at Project Prospect by Lincoln Hamilton, now by Mayo at milb. Didn’t think much of it with Hamilton projected him to the Cards because I’m not sure of his contacts, but when Mayo does it, it’s a little more something to pay attention to.
I think you’re a little too low on Tate.
I like Purke more than most too, but according to you he doesn’t have a third pitch, which from both milb and PG he has a good feel for his changeup. I also think he has good control, as milb says and by his HS stats (yea I know doesn’t mean much, but is something) as he had the lowest BB/9 of the top pitchers according to BA. From PG “He has an easy threequarters release with minimal effort in his delivery.”
The last two paragraphs are moot though because both Tate and Purke will be asking for more than the Cards would give (not saying they are wrong either) like you say.
i’m a big purke fan, but there is more effort in his delivery than matzek. i didn’t say he doesn’t have a third pitch, but he needs to refine it more. i think his fastball and curve are both better than matzek’s, but matzek has a slider and a change that are both pretty good pitches too. trust me though, i would be thrilled to have matthew purke wearing a cardinals uniform in a couple months.
Ah, forgot to mention I was talking about Ackley in that first paragraph.
1. I like that you have Scheppers 2nd. I totally agree that he is second in line after seeing that his stuff is back after the shoulder injury.
2. I like Ackley much better than Gibson and the HS pitchers. There is MUCH less risk involved and I think you underestimate the games he did play in center this year. Many people have seen him out there, including me, and I definitely think that is where he will play. He is a very fluid athlete and is very quick. The guy has a bat just about as polished as Wallace’s was last year. The route running needs a little work because he hasn’t been out there a whole lot, but I think this kid is a similar player to someone like Steve Finley with a little less power but better OPS potential because of OBP skills. This kid is the real deal.
3. Finally, if Skaggs falls to us, that would be awesome. Although I don’t think we would take him, I would love to have him. I have read reports describing him as “gangly” to a report yesterday that described him as “very athletic”. If he is in fact very athletic, I think he could represent very good value at that draft position.
I am very excited about this draft. Although I love the Cardinals, the more I pay attention to the whole organization the more I find myself immersed in the farm system and “prospecting”. Keep up the good work FR, you are all doing a great job.
i think its a pretty safe bet that skaggs will be there when we pick. he is behind matzek, turner, wheeler, purke, miller, and probably james among high school pitchers and i doubt 7 prep pitchers go in the first 18 picks. now its possible purke and turner could price themselves down the board, but i still think skaggs will be there. i like skaggs a lot, but there is more projecting to do with him than chad james. i wouldn’t be disappointed with him, but put me in the group that would rather have one of the first 6 guys i listed.
i know people have seen ackley in center, but what i meant is that people haven’t really seen what he can do b/c or the arm. from everything i have seen and heard he hasn’t cut a throw loose all year. sure he has the speed to be a decent center fielder, but if he isn’t able to throw you can’t play him there.
i like him as a player, and if this were just my talent rankings he would be #2 on the list, but for what the cardinals need i think you have to take the starting pitchers ahead of him. his bat is special and he will hit, but when you already have colby rasmus, daryl jones, and shane peterson in your system i would rather go for a guy that can be a top of the rotation starter. this is all a moot point though b/c he isn’t getting past pick #3.
I agree that the point isn’t important in regards to the Cardinals’ draft, but I was just pointing out that I feel Ackley is more valuable than some of the people you have ranked ahead of him.
I don’t necessarily agree with your last point though. If Ackley fell the to the Cards (impossible I know) then they should definitely draft him regardless of the fact that they have Jones, Rasmus, and Peterson (who is not a CF). The value added to the system would far outrank any position crunch IMO. This would make it easier to trade one of the afore mentioned prospects for a position of need on the major league club.
i wouldn’t hesitate to take ackley, but i wouldn’t take him ahead of guys like scheppers, crow, turner, and wheeler. i know there is a big risk passing on a pretty sure thing like ackley for a couple of high school pitchers, but i think turner and wheeler are top of the rotation starters.
just my opinion. like i said, i wanted to generate discussion, and it looks like i have done that.
Agree with Shhh on the Ackley OF info. Think UNC has just had a bigger need at 1B and he did have TJ surgery recently (can’t remember when exactly).
Agree with fgc on the Tate info. I think he will go before STLs pick, but there are big questions about his bat from what I’ve read.
I’m firmly in the James camp. The more I think about it, the more I dislike Brothers. I saw Minor twice last year (know he’s not on your board) and he did nothing special to impress me. No questions about Skaggs in KLaw’s chat today. I’d have to get an opinion from him and do some other research before I know if I’d like that pick.
Look forward to all the draft info from you fgc!
here’s my off the cuff big board, maybe i’ll post on this later and really think about it. i’m still nervous about HS p, so with a grimace:
1. Strasburg
2. Ackley
3. Matzek
4. Tate
5. Gibson
6. Turner
7. Mike Leake
8. Scheppers
9. Crow (worry about both indy leaguers lt health)
10. Purke
11. Z Wheeler
12. T Wheeler
13. Alex White
14. Grant Green (enigma.)
15. Poythress (i’m higher than most, he’s Walrus-lite)
16. Borchering
17. Brothers
18. Jenkins
19. Chad James
20. Skaggs
21. Pollock
22. Garrett Gould (have a good feeling about him)
i’ll stop there.
not a shelby miller fan?
oversight. i’d put him right below z wheeler.
My Board
1. Strasburg (Stud)
2. Ackley (Ichiro Lite)
3. Matzek (Kazmir clone)
4. Tate (tools galore)
5. Crow (top rotation stuff)
6. Green (run producing SS)
7. A.White (Kevin Brown II)
8. Turner (polished HS’er)
9. S.Miller (pure heat)
10. Z.Wheeler (#1 stuff)
11. Gibson (solid #2/#3)
12. Purke (LHP w/plus stuff)
13. Scheppers (shoulder’s scare me)
14. M.Leake (dude just pitches)
15. Bochering (the yearly Chipper comp player)
16. C.James (95mph LHP..enough said)
17. T.Skaggs (LHP with Zito curve)
18. C.Jenkins (3 MLB quality pitches)
19. Brothers (reliever, but electric)
p-fork, erik — i agree on scheppers. the burnout rate is high enough among pitching prospects. throw an injury history in there – esp. a shoulder – and what’s your likelihood of return on the investment, regardless of how good he throws?
the new mock draft made by mlb.com scout jonathon mayo has the cards picking grant green…..seems sorta weird to me since in the last 4 years we have picked both tyler greene and pete kozma who are short stop also. zach wheeler to me is the best h.s pitcher in the draft. i think the cards are either gonna take brothers, paxton or hobgood. ive heard good stuff on hobgood too
fewgood,
Any reason Oliver isn’t on your list? Isn’t he projected to go rather high as a “polished” college lefty? I would personally rather have us draft other players than him, but we could definitely do worse than pick him.
his stock has dropped this year. he has quit throwing his curve which used to be his best pitch, and his ERA is nearing 6. he is a huge gamble at this point.
Still, I think if Oliver falls to the Cardinals, they take him.
Oliver is a Boras guy if my memory serves me correctly, so not sure how that plays into it…with the new 10% slot cuts and the economy I would think the Cards who have stayed away from Boras guys since the new Aug 15th deadline..would stay way from them this year even more.
I got to see Oliver a bit ago. was basically a 1 pitch pitcher that game, an electric fastball that he had a hard time controlling…but like I said before, if your LHP and can throw 95mph…they will take you early and try a breaking ball.
agree. if they go college lefty i think mike minor is the guy.
um … didn’t the Aug 15 deadline just start last year? just saying don’t think you can say they won’t take a boras guy because of that.
@Wade: two years ago on the August 15 deadline. Kyle Russell was the guy the Cards didn’t get signed in ’07 is why I remember.
Like the board, fgc. Good stuff, as always.
All along, I’ve been on the Andrew Oliver bandwagon, and I still love his talent, but I think with his poor performance this spring, coupled with the obvious Boras-related concerns, he is no longer a first round pick. Of course, that only excites me more, as it would be an absolute dream if he were somehow sitting there in the second round. Oy.
My nightmare scenario: my two personal favourites in this draft, Oliver and Matt Hobgood, are both still there in the second round. Who do I root for the Cards to take? It literally might be more than I could handle.
I think Green is just suffering from draftitis and that the upside is still there. If he is still there at 19 we should grab him and run. The same could almost be said of Oliver, IMO, but unlike Green you have more sexy alternatives of his ilk.
It’s not just the injury=1B/CF thing, but when I think of Dustin Ackley I always think of Darin Erstad. That would be a great career but I still think Scheppers deserves the #2 overall pick.
Expecting the Cardinals to take a College pitcher… preferably left handed.
Scanning your lists… Rex Brothers? BA’s top 200 has Mike Minor ranked all the way down at 35. Then in today’s mock they have the Padres taking him at #3. Go figure. 86-89mph fastball doesn’t excite, but if he has off speed and breaking pitches as a lhp …
i think that velocity is a little low on him. i have seen him 2 or 3 different times, and he was 88-92 every time which is pretty good velocity for a lefty. he also has 4 pitches and good command and a nice easy delivery so he has some stuff going for him. according to BA though there are a lot of teams on him, so he probably won’t make it to the cards anyway.