Erik has two great draft discussions going on below. Join in there after you partake in the DFR.
I must be having some good pitching mojo this week as there are a couple of more good ones to report on.
Archive for May, 2009Don’t do it. Not in the first round. Unless every one is shouting “this player is can’t miss”, then maybe, but not without some trepidation. There’s been this sentiment lately around here, and it happens every year, that “why can’t we draft a high school pitcher? The Cardinals never draft high school pitchers in the first round”. It’s almost as if people want them to draft a high school pitcher just because it would be different. There is a method to the Cardinals’ madness, trust me. Myth: High school pitchers have higher upside. No, they don’t. I researched all the 1st round picks made between 1990-1999. The Top 10 1st round pitchers were Mike Mussina, Barry Zito, Kerry Wood, Roy Halladay, Mark Mulder, CC Sabathia, Matt Morris, Josh Beckett, Ben Sheets and Joey Hamilton, in that order. 6 out of those 10 were drafted out of college. 3% of all first round high schoolers became stars while under team control. Adding in those who became regulars, those who produced around 2 wins above replacement for their clubs on average, while under team control, the figure goes up to 8%. 70% of high school pitchers completely bust. Why should the Cardinals gamble $1.5-$3M or more on a grouping with such a sketchy history? As a whole, I found that all HS pitchers between ’90-’99 were worth .438 WAR per season. That’s essentially about what Brad Thompson contributes to the Cardinals every year. To be fair, college pitchers didn’t do a whole lot better. 68% of them busted. 11% of them were regulars or better. On average they were worth .561 WAR per season. Interestingly, southpaws performed better than right-handed pitchers. On average, a college lefty was worth .721, making them a much safer pick than their right-handed counterparts. Contrast that with high school lefties (and there are a lot of them in this draft) were worth .285 WAR per season. Hitters are much, much safer. College hitters on average were worth .932 per season. High school hitters were worth .804 WAR per season. I know many of you will say “screw it” and keep banging the drum for a high school pitcher. Go right ahead. But the research says you’re wrong. Draft a hitter. If there’s a good college lefty to be had, and you really want a pitcher, then history is on your side. There are several of those in this draft. But don’t draft a high school pitcher. Not unless you and everyone else is relatively certain that he’s another Josh Beckett or Roy Halladay. There’s been a lot of talk about first round picks here lately with draft day quickly approaching. Obviously, no teams want to biff their first round pick given the amount of money they invest in them every day, but according to at least the last decade, 62% of all first rounders were considered busts, making the draft a risky business. In the 90′s, the Cardinals actually did pretty comparatively to other teams in major league baseball, and you get see more about that at this post I wrote at BtB. For a more in-depth look at who the Cardinal drafted, I put together this handy-dandy spreadsheet with who was picked, where they were picked and the scouting director who picked them.
WAR stands for wins above replacement, and they are only for the players’ first six seasons in the big leagues, which is the span the player is under team control. Barton has only played two seasons and we know he was traded, and of course we know Looper, Kennedy and Young were traded. I even included Colby’s WAR totals, just because I think it’s cool that he already has one. Fred McAlister’s long-term as scouting director, at least in the 90′s, wasn’t so hot, at least not with his first round draft picks. Dustin did a really excellent piece on Cardinal drafts since, well, ever in Maple Street’s 2009 Cardinals Annual, I suggest you check it out. Marty Maier on the other hand had some pretty nice drafts. Looper wasn’t that good early in his career, but he helped the Cardinals get Renteria. Kennedy was actually pretty good once upon a time, and he of course was the key piece in the Edmonds deal. Jocketty may have laid waste to the farm system, but we all know he did an amazing job flipping prospects for established players. I’m not sure I was aware that Mo was the scouting director at one time. He did indeed biff it with the 1st rounders, but hey…the man drafted the Albert Pujols in the 13th round, so I think we can cut him some slack. The jury is out on Luhnow’s drafts, it’ll be interesting how history tells it. I think we mostly feel pretty good about this Rasmus fellow, and I don’t foresee the Walrus busting. Greene is in the big leagues, which is more than I thought he would accomplish a year ago. The meat is in the DFR tonight, folks. Time is not on my side today. Speaking of time, the MLB draft and July 2nd international signing day are both sneaking up on us as well. As for July 2nd, I have no idea why I get so excited about the signings of 15 and 16 year old kids who I have never seen before and may never see ever, but I do. Love it! Arquimedes Nieto continues to make me find new inventions online, Brian “Don’t call me Matthew” Broderick had a great outing, Casey Mulligan demands attention and Adam Ottavino existed. This was the last weekend of the regular season for almost everyone in college baseball which really means the draft is getting close. Next week will be the conference tournaments, and the scouting departments from all the clubs will be out in full force trying to see a large number of prospects all at a single site. It also means that teams are running out of chances to get a look at guys, and the scouting directors and cross checkers are out in full force to try and re-affirm what their local scouts have been telling them. Unfortunately for a lot of the top names in this draft, they probably left the decision makers wanting more on this weekend. Check out all the results inside. I linked to a Ben Badler chat a while back disagreeing with him about Mortensen’s future in the big leagues. Now I’m calling him to task over Daryl Jones.
This is, without question, sloppy and lazy logic. The conclusion may be correct (that Taylor will hit for more power) but the reasoning (that it’s because he’s tall and heavier) is at best incomplete. No where is there the remotest discusison of bat speed. Changes are good that I’ve got 30 pounds on Jones and several inches therefore I’ll be htting for more power too? Of course, the extension of that line of argumentation is beyond ridiculous but it goes to highlight how problematic the answer really is. PJ Walters gets some press after his 8 strikeout, complete game yesterday. He offers a very level headed quote at the end.
If I could swap PJ for Wellemeyer right now, I would. There’s really no words for the difficulties that Jose Martinez has faced recently. Cardinal Nation sends its thoughts and prayers. Went and saw Angels & Demons at theaters today. I fell asleep during the movie twice (it was 4pm show). You know how sometimes if you fall asleep in unusual places you’ll wake up and your whole body will spasm rigid or jerk as you wake. Ya, I did that twice and kicked the persons chair in front of me hard. Anyway, for a movie review that I think hits it dead on read this. The book, as is often the case, was better at providing context to the events and characters. The ending in the book was far better as well. Here’s the mock draft thread for the Cardinals’ over at Minor League Ball. Unclebuck44 is running the draft for the birds on the bat this year. As noted during Saturday’s broadcast, Brett Wallace has been promoted to AAA with David Freese headed to the DL with more foot issues. Protracted commentary will come later this week — snap decision: too soon. Link Dump for this week: Big Miles: I feel your pain Skip
Hammer and Blaise, coming to a Saturday morning cartoon near you. Speaking of Saturday morning cartoons, I came across and old TMNT cartoon on VHS at my parents house — that cartoon was awesome. I watched it while wearing my awesome TMNT homage shirt.
The Cardinals’ made a stink out of Chris Perez‘s “football sized frame” so I kind of question whether this is going to be kosher for Lynn to be toting around about 50 extra pounds. For a “drug of abuse” per Baseball America. I have to quit man-crushing on minor league relievers. Before Reifer, there was Kenny Maiques, who blew away Low A competion with a 94 MPH fastball and a sharp slider. Since then, he’s lost his control and now he’s smoking/snorting/shooting up who knows what. Get better, Kenny. |
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