Archive for May, 2009

An emailer who wishes to remain anonymous sent me these amateur scouting observations on Jacob Turner’s last start. In case you’ve been living in a cave recently, Turner is viewed as a top ten draft prospect and looks to be the next great pitching prospect to come out of the St. Louis area. He pitches for Westminster Christian Academy. Enjoy. 

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It’s back. Don’t phone a friend. Don’t use a Free Spin. Don’t try to block the square.

Memphis will be Leaving Las Vegas tonight, so let’s get right to this so you all can get back to thinking about Elizabeth Shue.
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Quick, take a look at the top 20 list and tell me how many prospects you think are having a standout year?

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Marlow ceased, and sat apart, indistinct and silent, in the pose of a
meditating Buddha. Nobody moved for a time. “We have lost the first of
the ebb,” said the Director suddenly. I raised my head. The offing was
barred by a black bank of clouds, and the tranquil waterway leading to
the uttermost ends of the earth flowed sombre under an overcast
sky–seemed to lead into the heart of an immense darkness.

The Riverbandits were rained out, surprisingly enough that was a problem for them to play baseball. I always knew evolution just didn’t sound right!
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Player A 2008: 514 PAs, .270/.311/.400, 108Ks, 9HRs, .313 wOBA
Player A 2009 (over roughly a full season): 670PAs (600ABs), .358/.418/.625, 125Ks, 30HRs, .444 wOBA

Player B 2008: 452 PAs, .254/.313/.453, 110Ks, 21HRs, .328 wOBA
Player B 2009 (over roughly a full season): 625 PAs (560 ABs), .250/.328/.545, 110Ks, 50 HRs, .375 wOBA

Player C 2009 (over roughly a full season): 596 PAs (516 ABs), .256/.337/.349, 120Ks, 6 HRs, .316 wOBA

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Plenty of games to talk about today, so let’s get right to the DFR.

The organization went 2 – 2 today.

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I know we just discussed this some yesterday, and you can put this in the “for what it is worth file”. I really don’t know some of these sites from Adam or how reputable they are, but here is who the mock drafters have the Cardinals picking in the first round.

Saberscouting (I miss that site) has this scouting report on Marisnick from last year.

Marisnick is a big athlete from southern California with some serious tools that is still rough around the edges. He has above-average speed in a 6′4, 200 pound frame that can play in center field for now with an above-average arm. His bat from the right side impresses at times and his power approach is projectable as an above-average big league regular and first round pick if his hitability and pitch selection can progress. Scouts dream on his projectable, near ideal frame and also on his flashes of big power and hitability in BP sessions.

Here are MLB.com’s draft reports on the others:

• Tim Wheeler 
• Jake Turner
• Chad James
• Matt Davidson

Sorry, no Andy Oliver. I was able to find this scouting report and this video, however.

Out of all of these mocks, Oliver makes the most sense. He hasn’t lit it up for Okie State, posting a 4.36 FIP but he is striking out over 10 per nine innings and his home park is a tough place to pitch. The problems that he comes with all seem to be something that can be ironed out. He already comes armed with the two-seam fastball and has potential to have a plus slider. Considering the dearth of depth the farm system has with left-handed pitching, Oliver seems to be a fit but I thought the same thing about Christian Freidrich last year and thankfully we got the Walrus instead, but I don’t think there is a bat remotely close to Brett’s being available this year.

After looking at the draft prospects a little more closely, I’ll throw together my own futile attempt or two at a mock draft.

Another great writeup from bgh with all the first hand details you could want.

I’ll toss this out to the crowd because I don’t have a good answer but has anyone noticed a note on Joe Mather.  He’s been conspicuously absent and, to my knowledge, isn’t injured.  Maybe he’s battling a flu bug but if anyone has read anything recently, drop a comment.

Memphis 2, Iowa 6

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If you haven’t seen the four part Prospect Evaluation primer over at South Side Sox, you are missing out. I think it quantifies very well what a lot of us amateur scouting directors look for in the stats of prospects.

I’ll attempt to highlight each part here, but you should really read it all, because it is just great stuff.
Part 1 – Age and Park Factors matter.
Part 2 – K/BB and doubles are predictive of success hitters.
Part 3 – K/BB and GB% are predictive of success for pitchers.
Part 4 – Prospects need to show improvement.

A thousand pardons if you have seen these before, but they are really seminal works when it comes to the armchair scouting that we all do.

On to the DFR!

The FR community lets out a communal sigh as the organization goes 0-fer today.

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Thought I would try something a little different this week.  Instead of giving a stats update, I decided to go ahead and update the rankings.  There have been some big changes since the beginnning of the draft season, and I wouldn’t be surprised to still see a lot of changes in this last month.  The way it is shaping up, I believe the best pick for the Cardinals is going to be a pitcher, and maybe even a college lefty.  We all know the Cardinals could use some potential starters as the relief corps in the minors is stacked and the position player depth is actually pretty good.  You have probably also realized that we could use some help from the left side.  Check out the names that are rising and falling and the players that should be in the Cardinals range all inside.

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