fewgoodcards and I differ in some areas and are similar in others . First, here is my rankings.
After the top ten, the talent is real bunched up. fgc has already discussed many of the players in-depth, so I’ll just have a bullet point session of random thoughts.
- Most of you know I’m not a fan of drafting HS pitching in the first round. Well, we’re talking about tools and upside here and this draft is what it is: very pitching heavy at the top. That said…
- For a HS P, I love Tyler Matzek. Mechanics, stuff, upside. No one is can’t miss, but he has a lot of positives going his way.
- I’m higher on Jake Turner than some others, and here’s my reasoning: Scheppers and his shoulder scares me. Shelby Miller and especially Matt Purke bother me with their mechanics. I’m not a bio-mechanics buff and am a skeptic of the whole science, but I will say watching them throw, there are some things about their effort that troubles me. With Purke in particular, he doesn’t use his lower half hardly at all, and he really whips his arm. I’m not the only one concerned w/Purke. Turner just seems cleaner than the others, but I’m no scout.
- I like Leake a little better than Gibson. Gibson is a better looking athlete, but Leake has a little better results and has no signs of fatigue, Gibson on the other hand is reported to have seen some velocity drops in his last start or two.
- Rich Poythress is underrated, in my view. He plays good defense, has prodigious power and patient approach. What am I missing here?
- I could go a bazillion ways with Grant Green. His low walk rate, low ISO scare me, but he has the right tools and played extremely well in the Cape. Was his so-so performance a result of draftitis? Mixed reviews on his glove are the most troubling to me. If he can’t play SS, then his value plummets dramatically.
- Garrett Gould, a RHP out of Maize HS in Kansas is a personal favorite cheeseball. He has a hammer of a curveball and pitches at a level that belies his age. He’s not just blowing everyone away with smoke, but he can reach 94. I have a good intuitive feeling about him.
- Even if Jiovanni Mier doesn’t hit, I’ve seen his fielding rated as an OFP of anywhere from 60 to 70.
- I’m not a huge fan of college closers, but Storen has three quality pitches, so I think he could start. Good makeup, smarts, absolutely superb command.
- Chad Jenkins is higher on my board than maybe some. I like the sinker, love the K/BB.
- I have no clue what to make of Alex White. He scares me.
Now here is my pathetic attempt at a mock draft, based on the latest internet gossip, educated guesses and hunches:
It’s just hard for me to see the team passing on Green, as there is plenty of room for middle infielders in the system. If Green isn’t available, there’s the usual suspects of college pitchers: Rex Brothers, Mike Minor, Chad Jenkins, Kyle Heckathorn. They could even take Kyle Gibson, who I have falling considerably in this scenario due to the fact he was throwing 84-87 in his last start.
Luhnow has said he’s willing to eschew the polished route and go with a toolsier, younger player, even if it’s a pitcher. Gould, James, Everett Williams and Mike Trout are just a few of the possibilities. I know one thing: I have no clue what they are going to do. I did not predict Pete Kozma or Brett Wallace the past couple of drafts, so the Green possibility is probably doomed out of the shute. I think priority #1 is Mike Minor or Rex Brothers unless something unexpected drops their way. If Minor/Brothers are both gone, then they’ll take the toolsiest hitter around that will sign for around slot.