Cardinal take Shelby Miller 19th overall
Posted on June 9th, 2009 by erik in 2009 MLB Draft, shelby millerWhoa! I didn’t see this coming. Put down your pitchforks. No need to hunt down DeWallet. Shelby Miller is your 1st round pick Cardinal fans. You wanted upside, well here you go. I’m shocked. Cardinals get a top top caliber pick at 19. He’s said to be seeking $4M+, so we’ll see how this plays out.
Some scouting grades on Miller: 60 fastball, 65 future, 60 future grade on curveball.
Law’s scouting report on Miller:
Miller looks the part of a stud high school pitcher and projects as a No. 1 starter given his stuff and physique. He’ll sit 92-96 mph with his fastball, hitting 96 and the occasional 97 early before settling in toward the lower end of that range; he gets great downhill plane on the pitch and it’s heavy enough to get ground balls and break some bats. His curveball has good depth at 76-78 mph but is mostly vertical and isn’t completely consistent yet; he doesn’t use a changeup, although he has the arm slot and action to throw a good one. Miller’s primary issue this spring has been inconsistent command, which, while unsurprising in a power high school arm, might push him behind a more polished guy like Tyler Matzek on some boards. Miller’s delivery is good, as his arm works well and his arm’s path is short after a fairly high hand separation. He cuts his delivery off a little bit, which can partially explain the inconsistent command, and he can rush his delivery when he’s trying to amp up his fastball. He also seemed to have a tendency to let his arm slot drift slightly lower, which makes it hard to get consistency on a curveball. His frame is just what you want in a pitcher, with some room left to fill out. He’s one of the top ten prospects in this draft.
No high school pitcher has a better fastball than Miller. At 94 mph, he tied for the highest velocity recorded at last summer’s Area Code Games, and he has touched 96 this spring. He usually pitches at 92-93 mph, but his fastball has more than just velocity. It has tremendous life, it’s deceptive because he has such an easy delivery and he does a good job of using his 6-foot-3, 205-pound frame to throw it downhill. Miller spins a solid curve that will be a plus pitch when he commands it more consistently. He has made strides with his changeup as well. He has sound mechanics and arm action, and a blue-collar work ethic. He’s a good athlete who also starred in football, making the all-state 3-A second team as a tight end and punter in the fall.
So are you happy now?
Entries (RSS)
I’m excited about the guy. He seems like the kind of guy Chris Carpenter can work with (polish off the curveball) and the kind of guy Dave Duncan won’t talk to (pitches above 12 inches off the ground).
His downward motion will probably lead to them trying to get him to throw a ton of sinkers. His ability to develop his curveball will tell us how quickly he ends up in St. Louis.
Would have preferred one of the lefthanded equivalents for obvious reasons, but since they were gone, Miller looks like a good “upside” choice.
“So are you happy now?”
YES.
Big, throws hard, high upside.
No complaints, although since I don’t know much about college and HS players I don’t really complain about the draft ever.
Kevin Goldstein of Baseball America had him ranked #13:
13. Shelby Miller, RHP, Brownwood HS (TX)
The Good: He’s that classic big and strong Texas-based prep right-hander, with a fastball that consistently gets up to 97 mph, and he has a nasty mound demeanor to boot. His arm action is clean, and he gets tremendous leverage from his power frame.
The Bad: He’s more of a thrower than a pitcher right now, his curveball is inconsistent, and his changeup is rarely seen.
In A Perfect World He Becomes: A dominating power arm, but if the secondary stuff never catches up to the velocity, he could end up as a one-pitch guy.
http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=9017 (subscription required; I highly recommend the web site!)
seems like even his downside is pretty decent. if he never does better than a 96mph fastball and a good curve, he could be a closer/setup guy with even basic control and command.
If that happens, I apologize because I was the one that said before the draft how terrible it must be to draft a closer with your first pick.
Don’t like Miller Light, so I’m drinking the High Life right now
What Baseball Prospectus had to say on their live chat:
Kevin Goldstein (4:45:06 PM PT): Cardinals go slightly over-slot to take Shelby Miller, who is much better than the 19th overall talent. Outstanding selection for the Cardinals.
Kevin Goldstein (4:48:07 PM PT): Robert (SF): Kevin, when you say the Cardinals went slightly over slot for Miller, do you mean slightly over for #19 or over for a top pick?
KG: A little of both, he was rumored to be floating a $4 million price tag.
full chat: http://www.baseballprospectus.com/rt/rt.php?rtId=17
John Sickels take on Miller:
Shelby Miller, Texas HS: STRENGTHS: 90-95 MPH fastball with movement, good size, good curve, good athlete. WEAKNESSES: High school pitcher with the extra risk that entails, needs better command of changeup and curveball (though this is normal for his age).
http://www.minorleagueball.com/2009/5/26/888212/top-right-handers-in-2009-draft
Baseball America’s draft blog:
John Manuel’s take:
Shelby Miller’s $4 million-plus asking price doesn’t scare off the Cardinals. Amidst local criticism of their farm system for lacking impact arms, the Cardinals take the Texas prep fireballer, Miller.
That’s seven of the first 19 picks as high school pitchers. Bill James called them “turkeys” in his Historical Abstract—but there are a lot of turkeys in the first round this year.
full draft blog: http://www.baseballamerica.com/blog/draft/
So we did end up drafting a punter…who said you shouldn’t draft a punter?
That was me again.
MLB profile:
Fastball: Miller threw his fastball up to 96 mph and throws comfortably at around 93 mph. He’s been clocked as high as 98 mph.
Fastball movement: He’s got average life, but it’s a heavy ball that pushes bats back.
Curve: Flashes a breaking ball that could potentially be a plus pitch. He throws it 73-78 mph and it has two- and four-seam rotation. It’s not always there consistently.
Changeup: Does not have a changeup to speak of.
Control: Biggest flaw is that he doesn’t show consistent command and control, though some saw him more as a high strike zone pitcher.
Poise: He’s fine on the mound.
Physical Description: Miller is tall and projectable with a deceptive frame.
Medical Update: Healthy.
Strengths: Great pure and natural arm strength on a great frame. Lots of projection and a good fastball-curve combination.
Weaknesses: He doesn’t show a changeup and his command has been inconsistent at best.
Summary: No draft class is complete without at least one strong-armed Texas high schooler and Miller is the best of the lot. He’s got a fastball that touches the upper 90s and a potentially plus curve to go along with a perfectly projectable pitcher’s frame. His command is iffy and he doesn’t have a third pitch right now, but this kind of arm strength with that kind of body usually goes off the board very early on draft day.
http://mlb.mlb.com/mlb/events/draft/y2009/reports.jsp?content=miller
Miller viedo from MLB:
http://mlb.mlb.com/media/video.jsp?topic_id=4961152&content_id=4737431
Somebody pointed out to me that Clemens, another big Texan, went 19th in his draft. Not that there’s any comparison, just interesting.
PGCrosschecker profile:
12th ranked prospect
SCOUTING PROFILE (3/1): Miller was a relative late comer to the national prospect scene but he’s quickly made up for lost time, and many now consider him the top righthanded pitching prospect in the 2009 high-school class. Miller’s fastball is in the 91-94 mph range, and he generates his arm strength from a compact power-pitcher’s arm action and easy, balanced delivery. His mid-70s curveball has a big, sharp break and is a potential plus pitch, as well, and Miller’s low-80s changeup also shows excellent potential, considering how infrequently he needs to use it. Miller has been a dominant pitcher in high-school ball, winning 10 games and striking out 127 hitters as a sophomore and throwing three consecutive no-hitters at one point in his junior season, one a 14-strikeout perfect game. He also played third base when he didn’t pitch, and hit .413-9-32. Miller was also a top football player, earning second-team all-state honors as a punter (42.5 average) as a junior while playing wide receiver and linebacker.–DAVID RAWNSLEY
UPDATE (5/15): Miller has solidified his status as a likely first-round pick but not in the way that many scouts would have preferred. After a slow start, Miller consistently generated 94-97 mph fastballs in every start and there are no questions about his arm strength. He did not show any consistency with his curveball, changeup or command, however, and scouts feel he was pitching more to the radar gun than to hitters. As Miller has shown an ability to throw quality breaking pitches in the past, it is not a major area of concern, especially since Miller pitched at a low level of competition during the spring and didn’t need to be fine-tuned in order to dominate. It was encouraging that Miller threw a gem in the first game of the Texas district playoffs, striking out 14 while allowing only one hit and a walk.-DR
http://www.pgcrosschecker.com/Articles/DisplayArticle.aspx?article=1494
IMO, give him the money and get it over with. This is Carpenter as a high schooler.
Someone said Miller cuts his delivery short and strides short.
I don’t see either one of those things.
yeah, would you rather invest $4+ million in a potential front of the rotatioin pitcher, or spend that $4+ million on, say, 7-8 low ceiling arms that at best may become middle relievers?
i’ll take the high upside arm, thank you very much
I hesitate to say this but this is a Miller Genuine Draft.
Baseball Factory/Team One Baseball
7th ranked in 2009 class
Miller is another strong RHP from Texas with a prototypical body for the mound. His primary weapon is his heavy fastball with late sink that usually sits between 91 and 94 mph. He has shown flashes of a quality 3/4 tilt breaking ball with depth and is developing a change as a third pitch. The bottom line is that if he can command his lively fastball he can get outs at any level.
http://baseballfactory.com/top100/
The crosschecker is interesting. If he was overthrowing to gain a couple MPH at the expense of control, I’d happily take a 93-94 MPH who has control.
It was hard to wait for the draft and now it’s hard to wait three years to find out what he’ll do.
I’m from brownwood and know him well… Good kid and comes from a very good family.. he’ll work hard and be in the bigs before too long… I would have liked to see him go to the Rangers or Stros so I could go to a few games but oh well, Go CARDS!
[...] As such, check out Erik’s writeup from this evening on the 18-year-old Miller. [...]