Before I jump into things, I’d like to say thank you to the generous donors who gave towards the cost to cover our hosting costs. We’re a little over 50% 65% towards our $100 goal. If you are interested in making a donation, just comment and I’ll send you an email, or click on the donate button on the right sidebar. Hosting is up by early July. Normally it would be something I’d take care of myself, but I have some baby expenses coming up and recently paid about $600 fixing my car. /sob story

Recapping:

  • Cardinals pull off a shocker and pick RHP Shelby Miller 19th overall. I’m still floored by this, but perhaps I shouldn’t, with rumors of interest in Matt Purke, who ended up being drafted by Texas. First, the pluses – He was the best player left available to draft. His ceiling is higher than any arm currently in the system. He has one of the best fastballs of any prep pitcher, if not the best. And it’s not just about velocity, but about life. Every pundit is very high on this pitcher. Good curveball. Mechanically sound. Scouting reports say he has good makeup. The bad – Normal high school pitcher risk, hefty price tag, it’s not certain they will sign him, inconsistent command, secondary offerings.  There’s already some posturing from Luhnow, and some eagerness shown by the young right-hander to sign. I seem to remember Kyle Russell saying positive things a few years ago, and we know how that turned out. Him not signing will ignite some anger towards ownership, but to me, it wouldn’t be the end of the world. They can simply reallocate that money in Latin America, like towards highly regarded OF Wagner Mateo. (I think I’d rather have Miller) This is a bold, gutsy move by Luhnow and I think it gives him some credibility to a fan base that has accused him in the past of taking high-floor, low-upside pitchers in the 1st round. I do hope they sign him. I like his attitude so far, we’ll see what happens. From the Commish: “Definitely, I’m going to sign a contract with the St. Louis Cardinals. Ultimately, my goal is to play with the St. Louis Cardinals as soon as I possibly can.”
  • Cardinals take C/RHP Robert Stock, USC, 67th overall. Didn’t see this coming either. We’ve been hearing about Stock since he won BA’s Youth Player of the Year award, an honor he took home as a 15 year old. Back then he was flashing brilliance on the hill and behind the plate. Scouts were split on him then, and are split on him now, although it’s hard not to like him as a pitcher more given his underwhelming performance offensively, and the fact that he was the ace of USC’s staff, showing three average to above average pitches — fastball, slider, changeup. It sounds like the Cardinals will give him a try at catcher first.  Stock graduated early so he could attend college, and is just 19 years old. He was rated the 5th best prospect in the Cape in 2007 as the youngest player to ever play in the league. Stock has plenty of tools and time to put it altogether. I’m not surprised to see him struggle at USC at such a young age. There’s some high-reward here, and his ability to pitch is a safety net.
  • Joe Kelly was drafted out of UC Riverside 97th overall. Kelly hales from the same school that gave us Adam Reifer and is pretty similar. He profiles as closer, he brings the heat with sink, and throws a good slider. The results weren’t really there this year, but he has some upside. The Cardinals already have a several of these type of pitchers like this in their system in Reifer, Samuel, Sanchez. Sure, some of those guys have struggled, but I still say for the 3rd round, this isn’t a bad pick at all.

Overall, this strikes me as a pretty different draft then usual. The criticism that there’s not enough upside in the system gets squelched by signing these guys, at least I would think so, based on what I know of these players now.  Day 2 could get interesting and will tell us if the Cards are going to continue down this path. We’ve heard rumors of Brian Goodwin in the past, and he’s still on the board. There’s also Max Stassi, who I have no idea how he is still on the board. He could be a good backup plan should negotiations with Miller fall apart.

Here’s a full list of some of the top talent remaining. If they start things off with AJ Morris or Kent Matthes, it’ll be back to the normal script. Not saying that is bad, it is that script that has given us some interesting prospects, like Tyler Henley or Steve Hill, for example. I think OF Angelo Songco could be a nifty pick-up, I really like his power bat. LHP Chris Dwyer could be better than some of the other touted lefties taken earlier, but as a draft-eligible sophomore he could be a tough sign. Should be interesting.

We’ll be back at 11, liveblogging. Looking forward to it.

28 Responses to “Day One Recap, Day two preview”
  1. picklefork says:

    Nice stuff, more I read about Miller and his reaction..the less I a worry about him not signing.

    As for the tomorrow, I think we will have to wait and see how it plays out for the mere fact this format is kind of new and there is surely some phones ringing off the hook all over the country with teams and agents…sorry advisors, trying to get deals done.

    Teams can now take a quick step back, evaluate players, remaining budget and go after kids who fell due to bonus demands.

    I really think we will see more guys drafted and signed this year then in recent years b/c of this new setup.

    Not good for the college programs though.

    Will be here brighteyed/bushytail with you at 11.

    Nice work today, everyone…very informative on many levels!

  2. Wade says:

    Can’t wait for the coverage tomorrow. I’ll be an infrequent commenter/frequent looker-in tomorrow as I try to get packed for Bonnaroo. I’m also going to try to attend the Redbirds/Sounds game on Thursday, so I’ll give my “scout” opinions when I get back from the ‘Roo.

  3. Mike says:

    Enjoyed the draft chat this evening gents (MrCrowesGarden for those who must know).

    Alas, as I am working on the night shift, I’ll have to catch up on tomorrow’s picks in the evening, so I hope all goes well tomorrow.

  4. Jeff Roman says:

    11am, sweet. Bye Bye work productivity! Hello draft live blog!

  5. Jeff Roman says:

    Also, I thought it was interesting that in the P-D, Lunhow said that they were going to make Kelly a starter. Maybe he takes the Jess Todd path upward?

  6. Jeff,

    I found that interesting as well. When I was reading his scouting reports, the thought popped in my head that they should give him a try as a starter being he has three pitches that are average or better.

    If he doesn’t work out as a starter, then the team can always move him to the bullpen. As an FYI, he was on Team USA with Brett Wallace and Lance Lynn.

  7. BigJawnMize says:

    Well reading the comments from Miller he is a cocky SOB. Generally this is a pretty good thing for a pitcher but we will see what happens to him when he struggles. I gotta say he definitely looks the part of front end starter.

    On Stock–I have said it before and I will say it again, kids that athletic need to be pitching. Pitching is a much more athletic endeavor than hitting. I have seen 250lb blobs of people hit well but have never seen fat guys turn into good starters.

    Anywhoo this was totally off script–I would love to be in the war room for the Cardinals this week. This is kinda like Luhnow raised a middle finger of determination to whoever was making the “very little down there” comment. (**cough Dave Duncan**cough**)

  8. BigJawnMize says:

    Oh here is a good question.

    If they do sign Miller–do they need to toss some money at a splashy latin american signing to continue to have good access and be serious players in that market. It appears that having thrown some money De La Cruz’s way they have been given more acess to top players in Latin America this year.

    • Jeff Roman says:

      I think that’s probably true. The money in LA last year was as I call it “arrival money”. That shows the trainers and prospects that they will be in play for the big names, so the trainers bring the hot prospects over to the Cardinals for workouts.

      I don’t know if they “need” to sign a big money player this year, but the fact that they have been linked to Mateo and even Sano is a good sign. That means they are getting audience with the biggest trainers and hottest names.

      However, I think they will make a splashy sign this year with the consensus currently being Mateo for around $3 million bonus.

  9. Hugo says:

    BJM, I was noticing the same thing. Miller seems to think he is the best thing out of Texas since Nolan Ryan. He may be that good, and I do agree a “I’m gonna get Pujols out every time” attitude is great for the mound but I too am worried about when he struggles. What happens the first time a slap hitter gets a HR off him to cap off a horrible outing? Will he recover and bear down next time or will his confidence be blown completely? One of the things I see with HS pitchers is that you have more mental conditioning to do in the minors than you would have with college pitchers, that may be one area where minor league coaches lack and might explain the higher failure rate somewhat.

    • azruavatar says:

      We complain when guys don’t have a “closer” mentality and now we’re worried that a player is TOO cocky. If this is the biggest concern there is will Miller, I’ll sleep easy tonight. I’m far more concerned that the Cardinals never correct his command issues or develop a decent changeup (who was the last player we saw come up with a great changeup?).

  10. BigJawnMize says:

    AZ-

    I am not worried about having a cocky kid playing ball…it is actually an important make-up component. I tend to want players to be cocky (I prefer the phrase “controlled confidence”). I was just responding to the comments in the commishes article. In a way I thought they were kinda funny. On one hand you had the kid with huge expectations for himself and on the other you have Luhnow saying it is going to take some time–patience everyone.

    I have made the comment before that change-ups are the most overated pitch when scouting players. Its true some people never quite get the feel for them. But you don’t draft change-ups…you draft nasty fastballs and breaking pitches. Miller brings both of those in bushels.

    Jeff-

    I agree the number of Latin signees might be down this year, but I think they make one headline type signing like Mateo.

  11. Easy says:

    Thanks for all of the info on these guys. Left to my own miniscule knowledge of amateur players I would have been very down about the 2nd and 3rd picks but you’ve brightened my outlook.
    Erik, I must have missed the request for “hosting costs”. I don’t know what they are but I read this every day so I’d be happy to send something. Please let me know what an average offering would be and how to get it there.

  12. VolsnCards5 says:

    I did not get the Miller cocky vibe…I got the “i’m 18 and i think i’m gonna be good” vibe…he’s only 18, i’m sure i was cocky as hell about something then too, the world hasn’t had a chance to really beat you down yet when you are 18…he seems like the type of person you want as a potential ace

    anyone notice in Hummel’s article that Lunhow said this is the guy he really wanted all along?…i find that, well, strange…i wonder if that is more posturing or if he is serious

    i say try kelly as a starter until his mechanics force a move to the bullpen

  13. lassie01 says:

    At first I was just kind of shocked, I mean, after the Rangers got Purke I was thinking “jeez, if the Rangers pulled the trigger on Purke, I wonder what Miller’s asking for? There’s no way the Cardinals take him, no way.”

    I’m so happy to be wrong. I know it’s still a long road to get this kid signed and it’s not a slam dunk he’ll ever be the next great young pitcher, but God, how nice is it to just have the talent to dream on? Like thinking of what I’d do if I won the lotto, just thinking of Miller taking off and making his ML debut in a couple years, going 7 strong innings, 10 K’s, 0 Runs, 0 BB and now we officially have a young stud of our own. A guy can dream can’t he?

    What a fantastic pick.

  14. VolsnCards5 says:

    oh, and i’m pulling for brian goodwin or the ss out of miami for our next pick

  15. gforce says:

    Hey all,

    Couldn’t have picked a better day if I tried. JC/Batavia is definitely going to be an interesting watch all summer with last year’s crop, the DR players, and Luhnow V5.0.

    Can’t wait for the 4th round to start!

  16. Lou Schuler says:

    BJM and Jeff:

    I don’t know if the Cards will pull off a big signing like Mateo in LA, but it seems they’re linked to a lot of the top lefthanded pitchers mentioned in articles at BP.

    I kind of thought they’d try to get some lefties in the draft, but now that they’ve drafted three righties in the first three rounds, I have to think they’ll go for the other arm on July 2.

  17. Shanky says:

    I, for one, feel a lot better about Miller’s signability after reading his comments yesterday. He seems genuinely geeked up about being a Cardinal. Never did I think that Miller would be in our wheelhouse, but Keith Law did mention him along with Purke as being possibilities. Thank God we didn’t pull the trigger on a third-round talent with that first round pick. . .now, about that Robert Stock selection! Oh, never mind, I’ll let that one slide.

  18. bigchieftootiemontana says:

    Miller’s comments sound good, he has a lot of confidence and drive, hope he turns out like another cocky high school arm (Josh Beckett) who proclaimed shortly after being drafted that he would be pitching in an All-Star game soon.

  19. whopperman says:

    Two things to point out — one, if the Cards don’t sign Miller, they get a compensation pick in next year’s first round. Obviously, you’d rather get Miller into the system, but getting an extra pick in the 20-25 range is a decent consolation prize.

    Second, I would have been surprised if Kelly didn’t start initially. If you keep a guy in the rotation, you can get him more regular work with the pitching coach on smoothing out mechanics, etc., when he throws his side sessions halfway between starts.

    Obviously, if he handles it well enough, they’ll leave him there.

    The Kelly pick reminds me of taking Boggs a few years ago — blah stats but an arm that’s better than the numbers.

  20. t7rick says:

    Eric, please send me an email about a donation. t7rick at gmail dot com

    Also, I know a couple of people were adamantly opposed to the Kelly pick but now that I think about it more I think it was very prudent. Especially if they choose to try him as a starter. I think he is a slot sign with very high upside. That will save money and hopefully allow for Miller and Stock to sign while providing the talent that could end up being a steal. I do think there is a much larger chance that he flames out but I am completely fine with drafting a guy who will sign for slot who has very high upside for a third round pick.

  21. Gruntosaurus says:

    As regards Miller and the “cocky” part, how does he compare, stuff-wise and makeup-wise, to former Reds uber-prospect Homer Bailey? His “cockiness” has been cited as one of the reasons why he has disappointed on the big stage. I lack the data to compare the two, but at a first glance, it strikes me that there are similarities. Of course, if you KNOW there’s an issue there, it’s easier to deal with, and another part of the Bailey problem seems to be that the Reds hadn’t really thought through what they were getting.

  22. SleepyCA says:

    Cockiness and a 98 mph fastball works better than cockiness and a 92.4 mph fastball…

  23. Shhh says:

    “Cockiness and a 98 mph fastball works better than cockiness and a 92.4 mph fastball…”

    WTF.

    BA: He usually pitches at 92-93 mph
    MLB: Miller threw his fastball up to 96 mph and throws comfortably at around 93 mph. He’s been clocked as high as 98 mph.
    PG: 3/1-Miller’s fastball is in the 91-94 mph range 5/15-Miller consistently generated 94-97 mph fastballs

    So Shelby has probably hit 98 a couple times in his life, while you compare that with Homer’s average velocity. Homer has probably hit 98 a couple times in his life too. Lets try not to make Shelby out to something he isn’t like people clamoring to Strasburg and his 103 number which he hit once in his life, which may have been a juiced gun, he’ll probably be lucky to sit at 96 (which is amazing) which is the number that matters. By the way anyone have what Klaw and KG usually have Shelby’s velo at?

  24. JC says:

    Just participated in Jim Callis’ Chat on the Draft. He said he expects Miller to sign closer to the slot (~$1.4M) than his asking price of $4M. With that said I am guessing we are talking around the $2.5M area (give or take a few hundred thousand).

  25.  
Leave a Reply

XHTML: You can use these tags: <a href="" title=""> <abbr title=""> <acronym title=""> <b> <blockquote cite=""> <cite> <code> <del datetime=""> <em> <i> <q cite=""> <strike> <strong>