Comments on: Player Development and the 2009 Draft

By: arch support

arch support — Wed, 10 Jun 2009 21:36:31 +0000

I don’t know if I agree with the “Cards can’t mold top tier starters” mantra. If you truly believe in TINSTAAPP, then Cardinal-produced pitchers of the last decade could just be an aberration and luck of the draw.

Not saying it will happen, but if the Cards develop 3 great-to-awesome pitchers in the next five years, we’d forget all about the last decade. Point is, I think it’s much flukier than we can really say.

By: PJ

PJ — Wed, 10 Jun 2009 21:13:43 +0000

To say the changeup is a must have is false. Carp rarely uses that pitch if I’m correct. He goes 2 seam, cutter, curve. Waino is similar. However, he mixes the change in more often. If Shelby Miller ends up being one of those 2, I’d be ok with that…

By: Chris O'Leary

Chris O'Leary — Wed, 10 Jun 2009 21:10:57 +0000

Johan Santana learned his change-up in the minor leagues. I know the guy who taught him how to throw it.

So it’s at least theoretically possible.

By: Chris

Chris — Wed, 10 Jun 2009 18:36:45 +0000

RedC, I think one of the reasons is draft philosophy. If you focus on pitchers with #3 ceilings in the early rounds, it’s no wonder you aren’t developing any aces.

Miller’s the first HS P drafted in the first by the Cards since 1991. Ankiel was the last HS pitcher drafted with this much upside and his issues weren’t development-related. Our development system did great with him, even if that is ancient history by now.

I know the Cards don’t get all of the credit in Wainwright’s case either, but I think he has to be mentioned as a 1st round HS arm who was somewhat developed by the Cards.

By: RedC

RedC — Wed, 10 Jun 2009 18:20:09 +0000

Chris–

Your points are well-taken, but there certainly IS a problem somewhere in the farm system if it’s only produced two bonafide No. 1s in, what, 15 years? Where the problem precisely lies is the real question.

By: Chris

Chris — Wed, 10 Jun 2009 18:14:11 +0000

I disagree. There’s no track record to use as a baseline here.

Outside of Herron, who wasn’t a velo guy, there really aren’t many high upside HS pitchers taken in the early rounds.

It’s unfair to use Ottavino as a baseline, as there is a big difference between taking a college arm with control problems vs. a HS arm with control problems (problems, which, I might add, improved over the course of this season). Ottavino was a draft pick mistake, not a development mistake.

Shelby Miller may never see the majors, but he’s a HS arm. To “throw down the gauntlet” is nonsensical. You could put him in the Red Sox system or any number of others with good development track records, and there’s a good chance he’s going to fail, because he’s a HS pitcher. There’s also a good chance that he turns out to be Chad Billingsley.

They took a risk on a guy who could be a true impact player and I’m glad they did, even if it doesn’t pan out as hoped.

By: nmstar

nmstar — Wed, 10 Jun 2009 18:09:12 +0000

Here is a nice story about Shelby Miller’s draft night: http://www.reporternews.com/news/2009/jun/09/baseballdraft/

By: Mike G.

Mike G. — Wed, 10 Jun 2009 17:45:38 +0000

Excellent points. It’s high time these kinds of questions were raised about the general lack of satisfactory development of Cardinal pitchers. Since Luhnow is now in charge of both scouting and development, these important questions should be raised with him by those in a position to do so.

By: RedC

RedC — Wed, 10 Jun 2009 16:32:37 +0000

Well, I agree that there is a “black box” feeling to the scouting and development components of the farm. Clearly, there is a failure in either (a) identification of talent and/or (b) development of talent. I’m inclined to believe that the system as a whole is getting better, but for whatever reason is still incapable of bringing starting pitchers fully along.

I think you can look at this one way, and, for argument’s sake, assume the coaching is at least as good as any other farm system. If that’s true then our scouts are incompetent. On the other hand, you could say our scouting is tops. If that’s true, then our coaches aren’t getting it done. So we simply don’t have enough information to know for sure. But one thing’s for sure: Drafting pitchers with poor mechanics, regardless of their current aptitude, is never worth it in the long run.