Comments on: Draft Hangover: 2005

By: lawless

lawless — Wed, 17 Jun 2009 13:17:49 +0000

I think we have a case of prospect fatigue with Bryan Anderson. My guess is that the front office saw that he tails off each year in the second half and thought it would be a good idea to split PT with Pagnozzi. The issue is that it is a 50/50 and not a 70/30 split… I think Anderson will come around and the sky won’t seem to be falling for him by the end of the year…. Also, by all reports his defense has improved significantly as he has moved up the ladder…

As for the 05 draft if I just read the info above I would think McCormick was retired. With the dearth of news on him maybe that’s the case, but I still hold out hope that he is a future reliever. Also, no mention of Garceau who four years later is still an interesting prospect…

By: rasrick

rasrick — Wed, 17 Jun 2009 02:17:50 +0000

I want that lefty signed also. After all, a tenth round pick is a relatively high pick and we need lefty starters badly.

By: VolsnCards5

VolsnCards5 — Wed, 17 Jun 2009 01:28:36 +0000

any word on our tenth round pick? the LHP out of the puerto rican baseball academy? he looked really interesting, and i haven’t seen a lot on him anywhere…are we expected to sign him?

By: rasrick

rasrick — Wed, 17 Jun 2009 00:54:47 +0000

Stock supposedly signed. And according to The Cardinal Nation, so did Ryan Jackson (5), Jason Stidham (8) and Nick McCully (9)

By: ubeddie

ubeddie — Wed, 17 Jun 2009 00:05:16 +0000

Luhnow reported on the pre game show that Round 5 pick Ryan Jackson has signed

By: tom s.

tom s. — Tue, 16 Jun 2009 22:35:16 +0000

If you lump in Rasmus, Jones, Anderson, Garcia, Stav, Boggs, and Greene, you have seven guys who either are playing in the majors, have played, or probably could. Even if some of the future roles are humble (more pessimistic folks would say anderson may be a backup type, greene a backup infielder, and stav a replacement level OF), that’s excellent top-end and reserve talent. Given that you just have to fill a 25-man roster and you control your players for 6 years, that’s a tremendous haul. If only every Cardinals draft looked like this . . . .

By: fewgoodcards

fewgoodcards — Tue, 16 Jun 2009 21:21:55 +0000

the hope is that pujols remains a cardinal, but i think they won’t trade wallace b/c he is the best protection they have if the unfortunate happens.

By: erik

erik — Tue, 16 Jun 2009 21:20:34 +0000

When it’s all said and done, Jaime Garcia could be a massive steal in the 22nd round. Speaking of which, Sky Andrecheck did some fantastic draft research at Baseball Analysts that we can use to measure drafts by.

http://baseballanalysts.com/archives/2009/06/draft_picks_and.php

Tango chimes in as well

Sky tells us to simply do: 20/SQRT(pickSlot)

That is, the 100th player selected is expected to get TWO career wins above replacement. In his career! The first player selected is expected to get 20 wins in his career.

The first 30 picks will average 6.4 career WAR. If we presume that about half of that comes in a player’s first 6 years, then we can see that the typical first round draft pick is worth about 3 wins pre-free agency.

If the average first round pick signs for $2MM, and gets another $1MM in his first six years in MLB total (on average, remembering that a bunch of them won’t even be called up, much less hit arbitration), teams are paying $3MM for 3 wins, a far cry from the 14MM or so they should be paying. That’s 20 cents on the dollar.

It’s interesting stuff, not getting off on the bonus stuff, but i think we as fans expect too much of picks at times. Like few said, a 7th rounder who becomes a role player is a pretty big success.

By: Mark G.

Mark G. — Tue, 16 Jun 2009 20:56:28 +0000

I know this is looking into the crystal ball, but the subject of whether or not Pujols stays in St. Louis after 2011 is picking up steam.

Do you guys think the FO would consider Wallace as a potential successor to Albert at 1B? Maybe he plays 3rd base in ’10 and ’11, then moves over to first in 2012 if/when Pujols signs elsewhere?

This seems to fit if the trend towards younger and cheaper players continues, and if Wallace can only stick at third for a couple of years. The Walrus will never be Albert, but he does fit the organizational trends.

By: Alex

Alex — Tue, 16 Jun 2009 19:21:18 +0000

Nice review.

In the 6th or 7th round, most players don’t even reach the AAA level (see Pujols, Wilfredo), so I agree that Stavinoha is a noteworthy pick just for being a decent reserve player.

The way Trey Hearne is pitching for Springfield this year, you could make the case that he was a very solid pickup as well. Again, he’s probably not going to be more than a reserve player for St Louis, but that’s not too bad for the 28th round.