Brett Wallace fell to the Cardinals at the 13th overall pick in the 2008 draft. Regarded by some as the best pure college bat in the draft, the Cardinals couldn’t pass up the opportunity to draft an impact player of that caliber despite having the games best player at Wallace’s likely position.
2008 and his professional league debut went quite well. Wallace posted OBPs over .400 at Quad Cities and, following a jump past Palm Beach, at Springfield. He showed power as well hitting 8 HRs in 225 PAs (roughly the equivalent of 25 HR power over the course of a season) and the ability to hit for average.
His numbers were aided by very high BABIPs at both stops in 2008. There was some luck involved as his line drive rate at Springfield was an abysmal 10% but we’re talking about 57 PAs so the sample size is far to dubious to say anything more than you wouldn’t want to extrapolate that performance forward; it speaks little toward his true talent level.
In 2009, Wallace returned to Springfield to get more work at 3rd base defensively. With what was at one point a stacked position for the organization (Joe Mather got time at 3rd, David Freese and Allen Craig were both in Memphis), there was ample time to make sure that Wallace adjusted defensively. A better question may have been whether he adjusted offensively. His ISO was lower than either QC or Springfield in 2008 and he was striking out more (though not a great deal more nor at an alarming clip). His line drive rates rebounded to excellent levels over 25% and the idea was being floated that he was being pitched around.
There’s nothing about his 2009 line at Springfield that should alarm you. He posted an OPS over .850, by all accounts he’s the same hitter he was at draft time, he was walking and his power hadn’t completely dissappeared. For the top college hitter in the draft though, it all seems like damning with faint praise. By the same token as nothing alarming you, there’s little cause for excitment either.
Wallace’s promotion to Memphis was premature, in my opinion. The organization has been aggressive with it’s promotions but that was largely in an effort to flush out the dregs of the system. When David Freese got hurt, they had another 3B on the roster in Allen Craig. Even if they don’t think he’s a MLB caliber 3B defensively, there was little harm in playing him there to have his bat in the lineup and allow another one of the seemingly endless outfielders take over LF. Instead Wallace was sent up and the results haven’t been pretty. With a .606 OPS, he’s struggled mightly. The walks have fallen precipitously, the power has vanished and he’s seemingly lost his way offensively.
With 123 PAs in Memphis, we’re getting to the point of prolonged slump. This shouldn’t effect your long term opinion of Wallace yet but it might plant a seed of doubt somewhere. We traded another highly touted offensive giant with questionable defense not to long ago. Daric Barton has never realized his potential in Oakland and it’s not impossible that Wallace could suffer a similar malaise.
I’d suggest Brett Wallace do everything he can (and I’m sure he already is) to get things back on track in a hurry. For one, he’s got a golden opportunity to secure the 2010 3rd base job by playing out a strong season in Memphis. The injury to Freese and the (still perplexing) move of Craig to the outfield combined with the imminent departure of Glaus sets the stage nicely for Wallace to move up to the bigs. Luhnow and Mozeliak obviously want to see him in St. Louis and see him be an impact bat.
Wallace has got to earn it though. He’s got to show that the bat is real. That he can hold a high OBP and hit for power. That he can overcome his defensive shortcomings (which are many) with a potent offensive contribution.
Lower down on his priority list (but maybe still important — who knows) is that Wallace has to earn being called the Cardinals top prospect. With Colby Rasmus in the big leauges, the Cardinals will have their first new top prospect in 4 years and Wallace isn’t a shoe in for the spot. With Daryl Jones having another very solid season, the speedy outfielder offers a more complete package than Wallace and could assume the mantle. For those evaluators looking for upside, the signing of Shelby Miller would offer another opportunity to crown a new top prospect to hold the title in Rasmus’s departure.
The simple story is that Wallace is having a tough time of it in Memphis. He’s not going to have his next promotion handed to him though. And he’s got to step it up to be the top prospect. Earn it, Brett Wallace, earn it.
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Take a look at his home/road splits. They are extreme.
I don’t want to be a reactionary re: Wallace, but if you take out his 2 HR/7 RBI opening game in Springfield, he only has 5 HR’s and 18 RBI’s in over 200 AB’s. Ouch. Memphis is a good hitter’s park, however, and if he can figure out the off-speed junk in the PCL, he should be set up nicely in the second half of the PCL. Another not on Wallace: I do not like seeing the Cards move him around the diamond. Play him at 3B early and often, and let him get as many innings under his belt as he can at the hot corner.
The promotion was premature and a negative outcome in terms of maximizing his trade value or his ranking on prospect lists.
But in terms of his overall development as a player, I think we’re all fooling ourselves if we know that his promotion to Memphis was a good thing or a bad thing. You could make the case that veteran Triple-A pitchers who can expose holes in his swing is exactly what he needs right now.
I haven’t seen him play this year, is there a consensus about whats going on with Wallace? Not ready for AAA pitching?
Wallace got off to a slow start in winter ball and then tore it up, so I wouldn’t doubt that he gets things turned around soon enough. He sounds like too good of a hitter to be overmatched for long.
Look!!!:
Away (AAA): .169/.194/.237
Home (AAA): .316/.385/.404
Away: BB 1.6%
Home: BB 10.8%
Away: LD 12%
Home: LD 18%
Away: K 29.0%
Home: K 13.8%
Away: BABIP .225
Home: BABIP .362
They guy has a comfort zone problem. It’s quite obvious. Am I the only one who noticed this?
interesting tweeting between erik and matt baker on descalso and samuel. worth a read.
pardon me, i have to go breath into a paper bag, what with the hyperventilating business and all.
*breathe.
i hate that error.
have to disagree on DJ. there is nothing that excites me about him. he is still striking out 2x as many times as he walks, hit’s with little power, and is thrown out stealing over 40% of the time, with a below average arm. Wallace has the potential of a big bat, one really good tool. Miller may be the best prospect…if he signs. in the system now, I am not sure that I see a real top end prospect if Wallace’s bat doesn’t work out. the best tools in the minors now may be the RH relief pitchers with fastballs..Reifer, Samuel, Mulligan.
Didn’t everyone have a similar conversation about Rasmus a year ago when he struggled badly at Memphis. In fact, he never hit a lot at Memphis did he? He was good enough that he stuck with the big club this year and has been a solid OF and looks to be coming into his own.
That conversation wasn’t had here. I shouted from the rooftops that Colby slumping offensively wasn’t that important.
I feel differently about Wallace because of 1) age and 2) he’s GOT to hit to be a vaulable player. Colby doesn’t. Wallace will likely be fine but anyone who blithely puts him at the top of the Cardinal prospects right now isn’t thinking about it hard enough. I’m not big on mid year updates so we’ll see where things stand in another 4 months.
The problem is that half of the “prospects” are not where they belong(even Kozma), but the Cardinals have a philosophy, once you show a few outings you move up, pitcher or position player. I don’t beleive in rushing players, this can ultimately lead to their downfall. Might be why there doesn’t seem to be a lot of “prospects” doing well right now.
Rasmus, was a high school player in the system for 4-5 years and coming up for the 5 year rule draft. You cannot compare that situation with Wallace’s, because regardless, there still is a big difference from being in the system for one year to 4- 5, players need development, even if it’s just mental. They may have the physical tools, but they may not have the head stuff, yet. The post about comfort zone is a good example, these guys can’t even get comfortable. This should all be about getting your practice at bats, innings and it DOES make a difference where you take that practice. If you are in a place where older more experienced guys are, and you can’t keep up, you take a downhill turn. It gets into your head.
Though I don’t believe prospects should waste away in any system, so very few, even first round picks are ready for the MLB level, one or even two years or maybe 3 after they arrive in pro ball. It is not college ball with metal bats. Don’t care how did you did in the wood bat summer leagues, there are many adjustments to make. And each time you move up, there are a different set of rules, differnt instructors different managers. One guy tells you to do one thing, the next guy tells you to do something else. How can Wallace (or anyone) concentrate on more production when he doesn’t know which position he will take that day?
I am gonna compare Wallace to some of last years very highly powered hitters, Younder Alonso, who recently moved from FSL to AA, Buster Posey in High A. I don’t see these guys being rushed, do you all? Same with Havens and Smoak, none of them has been pushed to AAA. The sad part is that Wallace, if not moved up has to sit another year in AAA, maybe 2 and that is a real bummer.