On the eve of ‘Rick Porcello Brown Paper Bag Giveaway Day’ at Busch Stadium tomorrow, I thought I’d bring up the one prospect who seems to be performing well.
Many a time, I’ve heard Colby Rasmus compared to Steve Finley. I always thought this a bit of a slight, perhaps limiting the heights to which Colby would reach as a player. Then I went and looked at BR.com page. While his HR power developed very late in his career, would anyone be disappointed if Colby ended up being Steve Finley (a Gold Glove OF’er with modest power and speed out his ears)?
The only good thing about today on the farm was that the cattle got in the barn before the storm in Palm Beach. Way to sell the metaphor.
- Jon Jay was 2-for-4.
- Brett Wallace went 1-for-4 with a double.
- Allen Craig was 0-for-2 but had Memphis’ only RBI.
- Mitchell Boggs must be working on gyro ball or something. Or, he was given the duty of making sure the Memphis Redbird team defense improved, so he’s been getting them a ton of practice. Whatever it is, I miss the old Mitchell Boggs. Boggs only lasted 2.2 IP, giving up 9 hits and 8 runs (5 ER). He struck out 3 and walked 1.
- Ian Ostlund, one of our LOOGYs in waiting, mopped up the 5.1 innings admirably. He only gave up 1 hit and walked 1, while striking out 7. Honestly, though, the Topes may have been worn out from all that swinging they did with Mitchell.
- Pete Parise gave up a hit in his inning.
- Daryl Jones was 1-for-6 with a run scored.
- Pete Kozma continued the Wha?! Movement with another 1-for-4 and another double. Go Pete! Ride it till it won’t ride no more!
- Daniel Descalso was had a double and an RBI.
- Steven Hill went 3-for-4, Tyler Henley was 2-for-4 with 2 RBI, Mark Hamilton was 2-for-5 with a double and an RBI and James Rapoport went 3-for-5 with a triple and 2 RBI.
- Ryan Kulik gave up 9 hits and 4 ER in his 4 IP. He walked 2 and was tagged for 2 roundtrippers.
- Tyler Norrick struck out 3 and walked 1 in his 2 innings.
- Marco Gonzalez gave up 2 hits, 2 ERs and struck out 2 in his inning.
- Eduardo Sanchez somehow got a hold, despite giving up 3 ERs in his 1.1 IP. They should take that back.
- After the Cardinals put up a 7 spot in the 7th, things looked ok in the 9th with a 3 run lead. Sam Freeman came on to hopefully get S’field out of the game, but gave up the walkoff 3-run HR instead.
- The Riverbandits had 12 hits, so a lot of guys picked up a tally. Some of the stars were:
- Paul Cruz, Jonathan Edwards and Jarred Bogany had doubles.
- Bogany also had a stolen base.
- Travis Mitchell went 3-for-4.
- Adam Veres went 5 innings, striking out 5, walking 2 and giving up 2 ERs.
- Ramon Delgado’s 1.2 IP saw 2 hits and 2 more runs with 3 strikeouts and a HR.
- David Carpenter (3 ER, 1 BB) and Matthew Frevert (0 ER, 1 K) both pitched 0.2 innings.
Needless to say, the best game of the night was the Palm Beach game…which was called due to electrical storms. Praise be to Galactus! Saving us from our sorrow.
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I went to the Quad City game. Cutler had 2 hits and was intentionally walked to load the bases. Also Edwards hit a LONG foul ball all the way out of O’Brien Field into oncoming traffic. It was the hardest hit ball I’ve seen in a long time.
Speaking of brown paper bags, did anyone else read Strauss’s chat yesterday that people in the Cards front office have said that signing a top DR prospect may preclude signing Shelby Miller? That statement just floors me. I don’t know why anyone in the front office would tell that to Strauss even if it were true lest they be responsible for sending more hyperventilating prospect geeks like myself to the hospital.
If that truly is the case then I suppose they think they can sign better talent at more reasonable price in the DR than by signing Shelby Miller? Or maybe the lack of oxygen to my brain is clouding my thinking…
You have to remember that there’s still a real division in philosophy between certain individuals in the organization. This could be truth, it could be cloaked daggers at Luhnow or, as Lou says, it could be aimed at Miller’s demands.
nmstar, I truly, sincerely hope they’re saying stuff like that to scare Miller and his agent into lowering their bonus demands to slot level. We all know the Cards don’t like to go over slot in the early rounds.
But nobody forced them to draft Miller, who was known to want an over-slot bonus.
So I really hope this is all just posturing. Passing up an elite 18-year-old prospect to sign an elite 16-year-old strikes me as an ill-advised business strategy.
I don’t think there’s anyway that the Cardinals can NOT sign Miller. The press associated with that would be terrible. Comparisons to Porcello, talk of being cheap, etc.
Hopefully, Sano has a special place in his heart to play with Pujols who very well could be one of his childhood idols. Where in the article did Strauss say that getting Sano or Mateo mean they wouldnt sign Miller. Miller deserves over slot, I just hope its not too far around and it doesnt keep us from signing Sano
Honestly, for the life of me, I’ll never understand the reluctance to pay $4 million to an extremely high upside draft pick who *potentially* could be a top of the rotation guy. . .and yet an organization will give that same amount of money to a veteran free agent with arm trouble. Both have considerable risk, but I’ll put my money on the young hotshot prep pitcher every time.
It’s an open secret that Miller (or his agent, anyway) is looking for $4MM. That isn’t just “over-slot”, it’s more than double-slot.
Isn’t it true, by the way, that Selig’s penalty for signing a guy to an above-slot contract is the signing cannot be announced until the deadline date (Aug. 17 this year)? And therefore, of course, the player misses a couple of months playing time in the organization.
I can’t see the Birds signing Sano; while the team has been pretty agressive internationally, they haven’t inked any *true* big-ticket guys the last few years, and it’s hard to imagine they’ll outbid all comers for Sano. My guess is they give Miller $3-3.5MM, and make a handful of more modest int’l investments–much like last year.
There is no “penalty” perse for signing an overslot draft pick other than Selig’s ire. They do try to put some pressure on teams to delay those signings because a) they think it prevents other over slot bonuses and b) they’re dumb.
It’s put up or shut up time for the Cardinals. They knew Miller’s money ballpark. They’ve helped payroll steady for several years. They sold their 3 millionth ticket recently. There is simply no reasonable excuse (currently espoused) for not signing Miller. None.
The fact that MO is actually flying to the Dominican means to me that they are serious about signing him and knwo the price. Hopefully this could be part of a pattern that the FO is actually waking up and now is making moves to show Pujols that they are committed to being a winner year in year out. What better way to show our Icon we are serious as to get the top international player available in a long time.
4 is double over slot for the 19th pick but Miller wasnt the 19th best player in the draft. He fell that far because of signability reasons going on talent alone Miller is probably a Top 5 or 10 talent and should be paid accordingly.
2 questions for the FR guys:
1) Do you do any kind of mid-season rankings for the prospects? Since some are in the majors and others are underachieving, I’d be curious to see how rankings would look. I guess you might wait until draft picks are signed.
2) What’s up with Colby’s lack of steals so far? No green light? Slow starter on the basepaths?
1. ) I do, sometimes, but a full season gives us a lot more info than 1/2 of one. Waiting for Shelby to sign, and July 2 could give us more names to consider. There are definitely some fallers and risers. This is off the cuff, so don’t take this as an “official” ranking, but assuming they sign Miller –
Wallace, Miller, Jones, Garcia, Mortensen, Lynn, Pina, Todd, Kozma, Jay, Freese, Stock, Anderson, Descalso, Henley, Kopp, Peterson, Jackson, Reifer, Niko, Kelly, Walters.
I’m a believer in the fact that tools don’t simply evaporate, Thus Niko, Reifer and even the Kozmanaut remain sort of high on my list. Again, this is premature, as I don’t have the scouting info I’d have on these players I would at season’s end. Pina could possibly go a lot higher or lower, and Anderson may now deserve to be lower.
2.) lack of green light, I suspect. The Cardinals just don’t seem to run.
I agree with Andrew that he isn’t a 19th pick in terms of talent and should get higher than slot, but, he did fall to 19 and as such he can’t be too picky. 2.5-3M is probably what they are looking for, he wants 4 or so. But to me getting a head start on his pro career will make up for the lost bonus fairly quickly if he succeeds and he should take it and get started.
Speaking of Latin players, what’s the status of the guys we signed last year? Are any of them in the minors? I know they’re young, but there has to be some sort of update over the last year . . .
When you read Strauss you have to keep in mind that who ever his “source” is in the front office its one of the hold overs that doesn’t like Luhnow. Everything he writes or says comes from that slant. I still like his insite and personally I feel its good to have a descending voice in the FO. You need different points to challenge one another. The key to this is that MO has to be the person that decides rather to hold on to someone or swap them for a proven major league piece. Were yet to see if he really has that power and can make the hard decision when the time comes. Luhnow wants to keep every prospect, that isn’t possible and the old school wants to trade all of them for proven players like the Walt days, that isn’t resonable in todays baseball. Has to be a middle ground and MO has to be the one that finds it.
The reason Rasmus isn’t stealing is that he is hitting in front of Albert, he should bat 5th in my opinion so he can use his speed and drive in runs.
If the teams in front of us wanted to pay him 4 million then they would have taken him. There is a place in the draft for every single player. If the other teams felt he was worth it paying him his demands then someone would have payed him.
I wouldn’t pay him over slot because he hasn’t played one day in the minors let only a day in the show. The Cardinals are not interested in signing the AGENT, they want to sign the player.
In my eyes AGENTS are ruining the game. It makes it hard for Joe 6 pack to bring his family to the ballpark.
If Miller’s family walks away from slot money that’s a big gamble. It’s just like rubbing a winning lotto ticket and throwing it in the trash.
I totally disagree with this sentiment. The agents are fighting for these kids who are basically stuck in an indentured servitude of MLB for the first 6 years once they make the bigs much less the minors. If these players were “free agents” you’d see them get paid what they’re really worth which is far more than what some of them settle for now.
Shanky, I think if you look at the success rate of high school first round draft picks and reclamation projects and compare their costs and risks versus what they contribute to a major league club, you will be surprised. First, the Cards weren’t typically spending $4MM for injured pitchers. Mulder excluded, most got $1-2MM. Some failed. Others didn’t(See Carpenter). I don’t know the answer, but how much did Brad Penny get this year? There is risk involved, but we know the guy can pitch if healthy. If you are able to give incentive based contracts and pay 5 spot in the rotation money for a potential 3 spot performance, you take that risk. Further there is immediate payoff to said risk. In fact Carp was a tremendous win for the system to get him in and pay him not to play for a year. That move kept us in contention for several years.
Meanwhile, high school pitchers fail frequently. $4MM bonus is substantial compared to a high failure rate and even those who are successful don’t often contribute for several years. Off the top of my head, Eric’s research showed high school pitchers fail to reach the majors at a 70% rate. While many of these pitchers seemingly have more upside, they take longer to help and fail more frequently to even contribute.
Now, I think these are two separate issues. I think the Cards should invest in high upside players. I think the first few years of Luhnow, he was stocking the system with guys who can contribute, even if it meant giving up some upside. Now that the system has more depth, he can take some chances on some younger kids. To me this was a smart move, and I expect the Cards to sign Miller.
Investing in reclamation projects and taking some chances on rehabing players is wise in my mind because you typically are buying at bargain basement prices for guys who might contribute substantially more than their pay rate. When you are putting together a 25 man roster you cannot pay 8-10MM for each position and even the best farm systems are always going to produce a quality low cost alternative. Take 3B next season. Say the Cards are hoping Wallace plays 3B next year. They aren’t positive he can handle the position fully so they bring in an injured vet or someone on a 1 year incentive laden deal. It makes sense to try and make that work for insurance. It gives the team alternatives in case Wallace doesn’t produce early next year. That is something different than signing young players and the Cards philosophy on the draft.
az, how much would you estimate the total budget is for these amateur signings, anyway? $10M? Relative to the $95M or so for the big club, this has got to have small impact on the budget.
Not sure. I’ll have to look into that.
The failure rate for HS 1st round pitchers (70%) is essentially the same as college pitchers (68%). At least for 1990-1999 anyway.
Jorge Arangure of ESPN thinks Sano signs with the Bucs or the Twins
Recent articles as of a few days ago says that the Pirates won’t pay over 2 million to Sano so it seems they are virtually eliminated. Do you see MO flying down there as a sign we are serious? Anyone know how we went from going to sign Mateo to a frontrunner for Sano?
AZ,
The AGENTS should not take any money from a high school or college kid until they make there first 400.000 in the SHOW.
There should be a rule just like football and Basketball, no AGENT contact. The clubs that over spend don’t always get there money’s worth. Player are likely not to make it.
It’s not Monopoly money. If you owned the team you would hope that they would spend your money the right way.
Plus the game has changed clubs are buying out alot of the pro guys last 3 or 4 years of the arb, years.
I hate not signing our #1, but if the kid walks away from a couple of million thats a big risk. You only have so many bullets in you gun/arm. Plus we get another pick next year.
Matt Harrington walked away from alot of money the Rockies offered and he ended up with nothing to show for it. Some of the best signs are the ones you don’t sign.