Comments on: Daily Farm Report 06/17/2009

By: Cardnerds

Cardnerds — Fri, 19 Jun 2009 04:50:39 +0000

AZ,
The AGENTS should not take any money from a high school or college kid until they make there first 400.000 in the SHOW.

There should be a rule just like football and Basketball, no AGENT contact. The clubs that over spend don’t always get there money’s worth. Player are likely not to make it.
It’s not Monopoly money. If you owned the team you would hope that they would spend your money the right way.

Plus the game has changed clubs are buying out alot of the pro guys last 3 or 4 years of the arb, years.

I hate not signing our #1, but if the kid walks away from a couple of million thats a big risk. You only have so many bullets in you gun/arm. Plus we get another pick next year.

Matt Harrington walked away from alot of money the Rockies offered and he ended up with nothing to show for it. Some of the best signs are the ones you don’t sign.

By: Andrew

Andrew — Fri, 19 Jun 2009 04:23:38 +0000

Recent articles as of a few days ago says that the Pirates won’t pay over 2 million to Sano so it seems they are virtually eliminated. Do you see MO flying down there as a sign we are serious? Anyone know how we went from going to sign Mateo to a frontrunner for Sano?

By: nmstar

nmstar — Fri, 19 Jun 2009 03:15:01 +0000

Jorge Arangure of ESPN thinks Sano signs with the Bucs or the Twins

By: giveml

giveml — Thu, 18 Jun 2009 23:34:00 +0000

The failure rate for HS 1st round pitchers (70%) is essentially the same as college pitchers (68%). At least for 1990-1999 anyway.

By: azruavatar

azruavatar — Thu, 18 Jun 2009 18:21:50 +0000

Not sure. I’ll have to look into that.

By: tom s.

tom s. — Thu, 18 Jun 2009 17:37:08 +0000

az, how much would you estimate the total budget is for these amateur signings, anyway? $10M? Relative to the $95M or so for the big club, this has got to have small impact on the budget.

By: Travis

Travis — Thu, 18 Jun 2009 16:27:14 +0000

Shanky, I think if you look at the success rate of high school first round draft picks and reclamation projects and compare their costs and risks versus what they contribute to a major league club, you will be surprised. First, the Cards weren’t typically spending $4MM for injured pitchers. Mulder excluded, most got $1-2MM. Some failed. Others didn’t(See Carpenter). I don’t know the answer, but how much did Brad Penny get this year? There is risk involved, but we know the guy can pitch if healthy. If you are able to give incentive based contracts and pay 5 spot in the rotation money for a potential 3 spot performance, you take that risk. Further there is immediate payoff to said risk. In fact Carp was a tremendous win for the system to get him in and pay him not to play for a year. That move kept us in contention for several years.

Meanwhile, high school pitchers fail frequently. $4MM bonus is substantial compared to a high failure rate and even those who are successful don’t often contribute for several years. Off the top of my head, Eric’s research showed high school pitchers fail to reach the majors at a 70% rate. While many of these pitchers seemingly have more upside, they take longer to help and fail more frequently to even contribute.

Now, I think these are two separate issues. I think the Cards should invest in high upside players. I think the first few years of Luhnow, he was stocking the system with guys who can contribute, even if it meant giving up some upside. Now that the system has more depth, he can take some chances on some younger kids. To me this was a smart move, and I expect the Cards to sign Miller.

Investing in reclamation projects and taking some chances on rehabing players is wise in my mind because you typically are buying at bargain basement prices for guys who might contribute substantially more than their pay rate. When you are putting together a 25 man roster you cannot pay 8-10MM for each position and even the best farm systems are always going to produce a quality low cost alternative. Take 3B next season. Say the Cards are hoping Wallace plays 3B next year. They aren’t positive he can handle the position fully so they bring in an injured vet or someone on a 1 year incentive laden deal. It makes sense to try and make that work for insurance. It gives the team alternatives in case Wallace doesn’t produce early next year. That is something different than signing young players and the Cards philosophy on the draft.

By: azruavatar

azruavatar — Thu, 18 Jun 2009 15:42:04 +0000

I totally disagree with this sentiment. The agents are fighting for these kids who are basically stuck in an indentured servitude of MLB for the first 6 years once they make the bigs much less the minors. If these players were “free agents” you’d see them get paid what they’re really worth which is far more than what some of them settle for now.

By: cardnerd

cardnerd — Thu, 18 Jun 2009 14:28:05 +0000

If the teams in front of us wanted to pay him 4 million then they would have taken him. There is a place in the draft for every single player. If the other teams felt he was worth it paying him his demands then someone would have payed him.

I wouldn’t pay him over slot because he hasn’t played one day in the minors let only a day in the show. The Cardinals are not interested in signing the AGENT, they want to sign the player.

In my eyes AGENTS are ruining the game. It makes it hard for Joe 6 pack to bring his family to the ballpark.

If Miller’s family walks away from slot money that’s a big gamble. It’s just like rubbing a winning lotto ticket and throwing it in the trash.

By: LDC

LDC — Thu, 18 Jun 2009 14:14:11 +0000

When you read Strauss you have to keep in mind that who ever his “source” is in the front office its one of the hold overs that doesn’t like Luhnow. Everything he writes or says comes from that slant. I still like his insite and personally I feel its good to have a descending voice in the FO. You need different points to challenge one another. The key to this is that MO has to be the person that decides rather to hold on to someone or swap them for a proven major league piece. Were yet to see if he really has that power and can make the hard decision when the time comes. Luhnow wants to keep every prospect, that isn’t possible and the old school wants to trade all of them for proven players like the Walt days, that isn’t resonable in todays baseball. Has to be a middle ground and MO has to be the one that finds it.

The reason Rasmus isn’t stealing is that he is hitting in front of Albert, he should bat 5th in my opinion so he can use his speed and drive in runs.