2006 was Luhnow’s sophomore slump.
Biggest Hits: Chris Perez (1st Supplemental Round)
Biggest Misses: Brad Furnish (2nd Round), Mark Hamilton (2nd Supplemental Round), Gary Daley (3rd Round), Eddie Degerman (4th Round)
Other Noteworth Picks: Jon Jay, Adam Ottavino, Allen Craig, PJ Walters, Luke Gregerson
Most Frustrating Talents: Tommy Pham
The 2006 draft was really an abominable one after the greatness that was 2005. The Cardinals went with a bunch of performance record college players and got burned badly.
Chris Perez still hasn’t quite harnessed his command enough to be the elite level closer so many people saw. That said, he’s in the majors and on a non-TLR team might have been put in the closer’s role. It’s easy to have missed but he has a K/9 of 11+ right now. The Cardinals have done an excellent job of building a deep relief corp from the majors down to the minors. Ideally, that will translate into a good bullpen as well as flipping some of the overvalued relievers for more lucrative prospects.
Brad Furnish started this year in AA. He’s become very hittable and his command, which was never good, has abandoned him. As a lefty, there’s the possibility that he could still re-establish things a la Tyler Norrick but when you’re upside consists of being a LOOGy, that’s a bad draft pick for the Cardinals.
Mark Hamilton hasn’t been able to stay healthy for longer than about 2 months at a time. When things click, he’ll slug with the best of them. As a first baseman, he’s limited defensively and his offense has just never been around long enough to remain a prospect. It’s not as inglorious as Mike Ferris but another poor pick.
Gary Daley and Eddie Degerman are perhaps the worst picks of the Cardinals draft. After dipping into the Cal Poly pool in 2006, the Cardinals will go back there in 2007 with disastorous results again. Daley lacks anything that could be called good stuff but posted good college numbers. Degerman’s quirky delivery made for an intersting pick (he fooled me, too) but the propensity to go Steve Blass on a team at any given moment has made him little more than a side show. Daley at age 23 is in Quad Cities and is probably going to be released in the not to distant future. Degermen is in Springfield walking almost twice as many batters as he strike out.
The Cardinals have a plethora of fringy players from the 2006 draft who could be anything from AAA players to fringy everyday players or something in between. Jon Jay might be one the best examples of this. A good defensive centerfielder with doubles power and good on base percentage, Jay’s offensive profile isn’t typical for many major league players. His offensive malaise this season (.627 OPS) hasn’t help to clarify the situation. (I’ve never been particularly high on him despite liking similar players such as Tyler Henley.) Jay has talent but whether there’s enough there to be more than a 5th outfielder — and if he can capitalize on that — remains to be seen.
When I sat down to write this, I honestly couldn’t remember who the 2006 first round pick was. The Cardinals first picks have gone amazing, can’t remember, not-Porcello, good and exactly what we asked for over the last 5 years and, unfortunately for Adam Ottavino, he’s the can’t remember player. If someone wanted to argue that he should be in the “Miss” category, I’d have a hard time dissuading them. That said, I’m still clinging to the performace we saw for team Italy and the not-completely-uncommom flashes of dominance in his first season of AAA. The Cardinals have promoted Ottavino despite him never fully clicking at any level but the talent peeks through every now and then. Time’s dwindling but, for me, he’s still worth keeping an eye on.
Allen Craig is another player that seems caught between AAA and the MLB being just as likely to remain at either for an extended period of time. The quesitonable defense hasn’t helped Craig by eny means and the bat has gone dormant this season. It seems unlikely that he ever sees time with the St. Louis club but he could sprout up with another team in the future or, perhaps, carve out a Joe Mather type role somewhere.
PJ Walters has shown exceptional command in Memphis this season and has gotten a taste of the bigs. He’s never had flashy stuff instead relying on good command and mixing his pitches well. It’s the kind of underwhelming appearance that can cause scouts to look the other way. It’s also the kind of underwhelming performance that can turn into a good backend starting pitcher.
Luke Gregerson was one of the more underrated relief prospects in the systen. He excelled at generating groundballs with decent strikeout rates and good walk rates. As part of the Khalil Greene trade, he’s posted a 3.15 ERA and a 3.07 FIP in PETCO. Not too shabby.
Overview: On balance, this is a pretty disappointing draft. Nobody in this group looks to have a lock on an everyday role or starting pitching job. There’s a lot of questionable overall players with only Chris Perez having found and sustained a role in the majors. There’s no high upside players still developing, mainly because the Cardinals didn’t draft any in 2006. A very lack luster draft that’s produced limited success.
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I have to disagree that the 2006 draft was disappointing. I think this is one of the most underrated drafts.
There are already 4 guys from this draft who have played in the Majors:
1) Perez (decent reliever)
2) Gregerson (doing great in San Diego, I was sorry to see him go)
3) Robinson (4th/5th OF)
4) Walters (5th starter)
I think this draft misses the star potential of the 2005 draft, but besides those mentioned above, there are other potential MLB contributors.
Ottavino – Might be a useful middle reliever. Disappointing for a 1st rounder, but at least he’s no Chance Caple.
Jay – Has had a bad year, but his 3 previous years were pretty decent and he could become a regular OFer. Still has a good BB/K ratio this year.
Hamilton – Having a strong 2009, defense stinks but could be useful to an AL team?
Daley – I have seen this kid pitch twice this year. HE HAS AMAZING STUFF, he just lacks control.
Norrick – Yesterday we saw a report that he was pitching in the mid-90′s Has a great K/9 ratio this year and may be a useful LOOGY.
Craig – Possible bench player?
Carpenter – Pitches in the mid-90′s after converting from catcher. Has potential to reach majors as a reliever. Needs to work on secondary stuff, but I have seen him pitch several times as well.
Edwards and Pham – Potential, still young, but frustrating to watch them strike out all the time. Both are 21.
Mulligan – Probably the most underrated pitcher in the system. Doing awesome this year. Only 21 yo.
Diapoules – Has a sick sinker and was one of my favorite pitchers on QC team last year. I liked him more than Additon, but he’s lost his control this year. Is only 20/21 years old this season.
Ingram – Easy to forget about. Was close to BA’s top 30 last year.
Shorey – Hitting above .300 in AAA. Could contribute to ML’s someday.
Additon – Did very well last year. He’s a finesse lefty, and I think he’ll have trouble when he reaches AA, but having a good run right now.
Again, I don’t think any of these guys are going to be All-Stars, but you already have 2 regulars in Perez and Gregerson, there are 2 more guys who have already appeared in the majors, and there are probably 3-4 other guys that may get a cup of coffee at some point. There could be 8 guys from this draft who see the majors. It’s not 2005, but it’s not a bad draft.
It seems such a long time ago when Jay was tearing it up at the start of spring training, which brought up talks of him being a dark horse candidate to make the roster opening day. He of course did not, slumped at the beginning of the Memphis season and had to watch Robinson and Stavinoha pass him up on the OF depth chart. Now he seems to be lost in the mix.
I look at this draft class and see 7 guys will see major league playing time in their careers. It certainly isn’t a glamorous group of players beyond Perez, but overall it seems like a fairly successful draft.
Actually, not to be contrary, but Daley didn’t really post good college numbers. I think when he was drafted his ERA was north of 5.00. He was drafted for his stuff, he flashed a 93-96 MPH sinker and an “often-unhittable power slider” in the Alaskan Summer League. He put himself in 1st round status, was ranked among the top college pitchers before the season started but then had a bleh jr. year at Cal Poly. He’s more the anti-Degerman. Getting him in the 3rd round was actually seen as a possible coup, but as we know now, the dude doesn’t know how to throw strikes.
I was listening to the radio when Daley was pitching the other day, and he threw a good game. The CR announcer seemed pretty impressed with his stuff but obviously less than impressed with his command. At least he’s not walking 10 per 9 in the GCL anymore.
Daley walked 61 batters in 110 IP and he had a .548 ERA during his last season in college (according to the Cal Poly website). I’m sure they took a chance thinking if he improved his control (maybe a mechanical flaw?) his stuff could carry him to the major leagues. They selected a few guys like that this year, too.
I think azru has the right take on the draft. The draft isn’t here just to get us fringe type players, the draft is here to get us great players. Everybody isn’t going to be rasmus but two of the best players drafted are relievers, who have less value than starters or position players.the rest – jay, craig, shane – are nice pieces, but not necessarily starting position players. Maybe time will tell for walters and ottavino, but right now this draft has given us depth and perez, basically.
exactly. This draft’s total WAR in the players 6 cost-controlled years might be equivalent to the total WAR that Colby is going to be put up in 1 year.
Several of these guys have to turn out to be legit players before this draft doesn’t look bad. There’s too much optimism about these prospects. . .
i think there is some rabid optimism, but i’m not sure i can fault the players they took, though. all of the players they took were highly rated by BA, and KLaw loved Hamilton. I suppose they could’ve had Jason Donald and Chris Valaika instead of Jay and Hamilton, but in the end will the difference between the two be that huge?
I think the problem is we all have too high of expectations of the draft. The average WAR per pick after the first few players isn’t that high.
http://baseballanalysts.com/archives/2009/06/draft_picks_and.php
It’s basically your first couple of rounds and then you are going to get role players unless you really nail a pick later on. To get an Allen Craig, a PJ Walters and a Luke Gregerson where they got them is actually a pretty big success. Ottavino, to me, is just the whole pitcher risk thing.
the truth of the matter that getting great players in the draft most certainly should happen for every team, but i’m not sure it’s gonna happen with every draft. getting great players in the draft are more the exception and not the rule. not every draft has the ridiculous amount of talent the 05 one had. you’re just not gonna get a colby every year.
Allen craig probably will never see time with the Cardinals, hahahahahahahahahaha, good call