Our friend Alex Eisenberg takes an up close look at Shelby Miller.
No major worries about mechanics, and he says Miller has “undeniable upside”. He does say there’s no signability issues that he knows of, but we that have the P-D in our RSS reader and obsess over this team know that’s not true, although it does sound like Miller really wants to sign and I think he’ll eventually come in at $2-3 rather than the advertised $4M. We’ll see what his agents do.
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Drooling…
That fastball just gives me the shivers…explosive with a good amount of glove side run. He has a potentially nasty curve-ball, different than the super tight almost slider-like pitches things that we see today. It has a lot of up to down movement.
Fankly his 4-seamer/curve combination will never see the light of Bush as long as Duncan is around as this is as far away from a pitch-to-contact arsenal as you are going to see. He is going to produce a lot of flyballs with his stuff. In this sense, with this pick I think Luhnow raised a shaking fist of determination towards Duncan for that “very little down there” crap that he has been spewing. It like he was saying “try to make this guy pitch to contact ….”.
Sorry for the angry nature on this one…for all of Duncan’s brilliance—he strikes me as really smug.
sorry for cleaning up some of the angry nature! :)
I am going to disagree a bit with you on this topic. I can’t remember the last time we had a starting pitcher in our system that has the tools and upside that Miller has. I think if you have a dominate fastball and a pitch that is potentially considered a plus pitch like his curveball is you let him thrive off those pitches. I do think having him develop his changeup would make him devasting. Miller is a different breed of pitchers than what we typically draft…so I think he will be developed a bit different than most. That is just my opinion though.
Do you really believe that Dave Duncan will concede his position on pitch-to-contact because Shelby Miller is a “special” talent? Duncan is a stubborn grump and 18YOs don’t know crap.
My initial review should have said arm-side run…not glove-side run.
Ankiel was never told not to throw a 4 seamer or a curve under Duncan. He lets people throw pitches if they can be successful with those pitches.
I think that if Duncan determines a pitchers 4 seam fastball won’t be a dominating out pitch he is going to turn the guy into a 2 seamer sinker baller. For instance – Reyes was not getting people out with his 4 seam fastball. It might hit 93-94 for a few innings then he was at 92 and it was always straight. Unless he was locating his breaking pitch and change up he was easily hittable. So that is why Duncan tried to change Reyes to a 2 seamer because he knew he wouldn’t get guys out with the fastball he had.
I want to believe that if Miller has the fastball that can dominate they will leave it alone.
BigJawnMize – Duncan has a set way that he believes most pitchers should pitch to his philosophy. But he is no dummy. If a guy throws 95 with room to grow and can spot the pitch decently and has a kneebuckling 12-6 type curve I am pretty sure he will continue to grow him with those pitches as his dominant 2 pitches. Miller does occasionally throw a 2 seamer and he has a very raw changeup. So they will work on getting him to use those pitches more and working on command and how to approach pitching at the pro level. If he has 2 plus pitches and 2 above avg pitches and has above avg command he will be very successful. Of course we are talking about a number of years down the road…it much easier to say it than for him to do it.
the fastball that miller threw in that video will induce grounders…he if plants that on the inside third at 95, most major leaguers will not be able to make good contact with it, and will roll it over to third or short…so i’m actually not too worried about duncan making shelby scrap the 4-seamer
i am worried he will tell him to lose the changeup, in which case miller becomes a two pitch pitcher…granted, those to pitches have a chance to both be plus pitches, but IMHO a top of the line starter needs at least three good pitchers to keep major league hitters off balance…a good changeup mixed with that fastball and the curve will give miller and edge against lefties that just isn’t common among the average pitcher
if i recall correctly, maddux was made to throw a certain number of changeups every start while coming through the cubs system…i think miller should be made to do something similar…i want him to get a really good feel for that pitch, so that by the time he hits AAA, we know if its a major league caliber pitch…if it is, we need to ride it…but he should have to throw a certain amount per start, results be damned
I think generally Duncan tries to mold pitcher to an image of he thinks they should be. Sometimes this works–there are plenty of pitchers that need to be molded into something–Welleymeyer for example. But there are a lot of pitchers who’s basic skill set just does not compute with Duncan–Reyes. His out pitch was a change-up. Instead of guidance on how to be effective with the arsenal that Reyes had duncan tried to change him into something he wasn’t–the sinker/slider pitcher. And when he couldn’t get a feal for a sinker discredited him so much that all we could get was a reliver that we released. Walters I fear will sufer the same fate, as he actually looks like e would prefer to pitch a little backwards by locating a lot of those change-ups to ease the pressure on his mediocre fastball.
Duncan, if he is around (I doubt it), will make Miller locate that fastball down in the zone. It is just that might not be the best strategy given his skill set. That thing looked good enough that he will really be able to elevate it setting up that breaking pitch.
What has been the criticism of Duncan his whole career–not developing young pitchers. The counter arguments people make in his defense are star type players–Ankiel the pitcher and Wainwright. He isn’t developoing many of those because those are rare talents and he ain’t developing any young back of the rotation starters because if they don’t come up as the sinker/slider style pitcher he doesn’t know what to do with them.
I hope he and Tony are gone soon. The team will go through a transition, but it will be a lot better than hearing these guy bicker about player development/procurement.
BigJawnMize – We can agree to disagree! I hope we keep TLR and Duncan around. They do the team much more good than bad. I also think when Duncan has a guy that has superior talents and can be a frontline pitcher he works with the guys best pitches and then teaches them other elements to improve their overall skills and knowledge of pitching. Not saying he handles every pitcher perfectly but if they don’t have dominating stuff then usually they need to pitch to keep the ball in the park.
JC-
Agreed.
My main arguement against both of them is that they have done a poor job of developing young depth. Duncan doesn’t develop young 3, 4, or 5 type starters and I think Tony mishandles young role players–currently Ryan, Greene 2, Shuemaker, and even Duncan. If you want to keep Pujols you have the young or just above average players filling 20 of the 25 roster spots. The style procurement/player devolopment may not be capable of contending every year…but when we get lucky and have a handful of very talented cheaper younguns we will chase titles.
BJM — I replied to you on VEB, but the conversation seems to be over here.
It seems like you’re generalizing the catastrophe that was the anthony reyes experiment to general behavior by dave duncan. I think dave is open to criticism on the reyes front, but i don’t think it’s fair to say he’d just do the same thing to miller.
for one, plenty of good K pitchers on the cards can throw a 4-seam: motte and perez throw gas. carp, waino, and welly all have a non-pitch-to-contact-repetoire.
and i think it’s overblown to say that duncan can’t develop 3-4-5 guys. maybe the system can’t, but what pitchers has he failed with, other than reyes? is it duncan’s fault that ottavino is stuck in AAA? the real problem with our 3-4-5 guys is that they just haven’t reached the majors and those who have have not had the talent to sustain their performance.
the realistic starting pitching prospects who have come up in past years are: wainwright and reyes. He’s 1-1 with those two. He’s worked a fair amount with Boggs, who is showing some life. but the other prospect names making spot starts with the rotation had pretty minimal contact with duncan: keisler, narveson, etc. I wouldn’t want to hang those guys on duncan.
btw, i remember hearing that miller’s fastball has some natural sink to it already. i wouldn’t be sad to have miller introduce a sinker to his repetoire. i’ll be just as annoyed as you if we find that he’s not allowed to throw a four-seam, but i think that fear is overblown.
Did you guys see and discuss this video interview with Papa Dunc ?
http://www.baseballthinkfactory.org/files/newsstand/discussion/pd_hall_of_a_coach_cardinals_dave_duncan_talks_cy_success_and_cooperstown_c/
For me it humanized Dave Duncan and gives me the impression that unless Shelby Miller struggles in a big way Duncan will not be trying to change him. Duncan gives the impression in the video that he works with what stuff the pitchers have.
I’m just glad to see this kid will likely be signed.
Is there new news where it says he will probably be signed?
He pretty much jumped up and down and said he wants to be a cardinal and doesn’t want to go to college. That’s a good sign.
That is true but he’s also askingmore than the Cardinals are typically willing to pay.
we played against him in the regional quarter finals in 2009 and he was throwing about 93-96 but he had pretty good command with him fastball but his curve was lacking but we never saw an attempt at a change up.