The closer you get to the present, the harder it is to evaluate a draft. 2007 isn’t so far removed that we know how things are going to turn out but it is far enough back that we’ve got an idea of what some of these players have done in their pro careers. If 2005 brought upside and 2006 brought a lot of fringe depth, 2007 looks to me like it may have a lot of mid level league average type talent in it.
Biggest Hits: The First 5 Picks
Biggest Misses: Thomas Eager (5th Round), Oliver Marmol (6th Round)
Other Noteworthy Drafts: Tyler Henley, Adam Reifer
Most Frustrating Talents: Kyle Russell (4th Round)
When you have to dig down past the first 5 picks to find a miss, that’s a pretty good start to the draft. This draft started off with the now infamous Pete Kozma pick. Kozma has already made it to AA and while many, including myself, have called that promotion premature, he’s having a very good June hitting .278/.341/.486. Kozma still projects to stay at SS although there are some questions about his vaunted defense.
Clayton Mortensen might be one of the more underrated minor league arms in our system. He’s got some lingering command issues that cause a higher walk rate than desireable but he strikes out batters and, most importantly, generates a ton of groundballs. He’s 6th in the PCL in GB% behind a bunch of crafty older guys and 1 real prospect (the A’s Vin Marazzo). That’s a skillset that’s not going to show up in his FIP but does help explain how he consistently outperforms it. Remember too that he’s backed by a shady Memphis infield defense (Wallace at 3rd, Hoffpauir at 2B and whatever motley assortment of outfielders are manning 1st). Put Mortensen in front of a St. Louis infield and the results could be very good.
David Kopp was the Cardinals third overall selection. He’s been hampered by injuries (shoulder) but when on the field, has shown the same type of groundball, strikeout characteristics at Mortensen. Health will always be the question mark with Kopp (despite many internet proclomations about his great mechanics) and he could find himself in the Most Frustrating Talents group in a year or two.
The 4th pick for the Cardinals was reliever turned starter turned reliever turned destroyer of the world, Jess Todd. With 39 strikeouts in 30 innings and just 9 walks, Todd is showing us everything that Chris Perez could be. Todd’s pure velocity isn’t as good but his slider rates well and, more importantly, he knows where his pitches are going. Perhaps the most compelling reason to try and trade one of Perez or Motte is found here in the Cardinals 2007 draft class.
The 5th pick (3rd round) didn’t even make the FR Top 20 although he’s certainly opened eyes since then. With an OPS over .900 in Springfield, Daniel Descalso has put himself on the map as the first legitimate 2B prospect in years for the Cardinals. At 22 Descalso has flashed some real gap-to-gap power with 24 doubles and a great approach at the plate with nearly as many walks as strikeouts. Whether he can carry the power over to Memphis will be the biggest question moving forward.
Thomas Eager is the counterpart to the Gary Daley affair of 2006. Another pitcher out of Cal Poly, Eager has shown little command of his pitches pitching in Palm Beach. Oliver Marmol is a light hitting shortstop whose bat hasn’t developed. Neither player projects as more than a minor leaguer.
Scouts were divided on what kind of big league potential Kyle Russell would have. After setting HR records his junior year, the Cardinals drafted him in the 4th round only to watch negotiations become sluggish and far too public. FR wasn’t immune to the allure of Russell’s raw power as we clamored for the 4th rounder who would immediately jump toward the top of prospect lists. Russell never signed and was drafted in 2008 by the Dodgers. He’s raking right now with a .945 OPS . . . but it’s in the Midwest Leauge (Low A) and at age 23, the clock is already ticking. Despite the shiny OPS, Russell is stiking out in nearly 30% of his PAs in low A, which is a rather ominus sign.
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kyle russell=russel branyan IMHO
if mort, koz, and todd all become MLers who really contribute, then this is yet another solid lunhow draft…still, its to early to tell
A couple other draft picks worthy of top 30-40 consideration:
Deryk Hooker – 7th round
Brett Zawacki – 12th round
Steven Hill – 13th round
Josh Dew – 14th round. Legit reliever when healthy. Injured this year.
I debated listing Zawacki as he’s one of the few low level pitchers I like. Steven Hill lacks a position for me. Hooker’s clouded by the recent suspension and Dew is more of a middle reliever to me rather than a special late inning guy.
I’m EXTREMELY high on Delasco. I don’t think he gets enough credit for hit bat or where he projects. It’s exciting to me that the Cardinals have a few legitimate middle INF prospects after seemingly having to sign the best availible free agent utility guy year in and year out to fill positions in the INF. I think Delasco will contribute to our big league club within the next year or two and we can hopefully move Shumaker back to his natural OF position.
Kozma is still very young and is figuring things out at a rate which seems completely normal to me. He’s not going to be as good as Rick Porcello, but hopefully Miller can make us all forget who we passed over especially if Kozma turns into a solid SS for the big league club.
hard not to like this draft. great role players without a superstar; this seems like it should be your target kind of draft. you can’t always get superstars, but you should always be getting solid talent. where 06 feels “fringe” to me, 07 feels “solid.”
Steve Hill should be packaged as trade bait with Todd or Perez/Motte to get an All Star bat or another starting pitcher. I’m not stating that Hill/Todd alone would bring an All Star bat but I think you could put together a package around those guys that might be intriguing for some AL clubs.
Can anyone here speak to Descalso’s defense? I know the bat is developing, and I’m impressed as hell by the OPS, but how is his range? Can he make the pivot? I know he was a 3B in college.
@Shanky
Having watch Descalso all year and a little last year his defense is fine. He turns the double play real well. His range to his left is outstanding. Looks like he might be in Memphis after the first part of July. He is a clutch hitter also and seems to battle every AB. I am not an expert, just saying what I have seen.
When I see Kozma and what he brings to the table, I think of Yunel Escobar. He’s not a walk machine, but he gets on base enough for the position. He’s not a bopper, but projects for 10-15 HR a year. He’s not going to steal a ton of bases, but he’s not slow. And the defense isn’t remarkable but (it should be) steady. Throw in a .290 batting average, and you have a very good shortstop without a single tool above 50.
if kozma is as good as escobar…i will be very happy
It’s funny… at the time of the draft a lot of folks were criticizing both the Mortensen and Descalso selections as overdrafts.
I think there’s a distinction to be made between having a successful draft and having the best draft they could. If they had picked Porcello rather than Kozma, this draft would look (right now) even better. Mort and DDescalso have both been good but I still think they could be classified as overdrafts.
What I like about Descalso’s numbers, unlike Allen Craig’s last year, are they are not Harmon Field-inflated production.
AVG/OBP/SLG/OPS
home: .328/.412/.538/.950
away: .322/.386/.510/.896
http://firstinning.com/players/Daniel-Descalso-a/
Thanks for the excellent overview, azru!
Regarding Descalso’s defense, he’s turned 67 double plays in 67 games. This is beyond extraordinary, especially when you look at the GB/FB ratios of the top several Springfield pitchers–it is *not* an extreme groundball staff, but rather about average. And DD’s fielding % is solid also. Oh, and he’s hitting southpaws as well as normal people.
I’m not as excited about the ’07 pitchers as some here; I think oft-injured David Kopp, rather than the durable Jess Todd, shoulda been the one switched to the bullpen. And Mortensen has done little to project as more than a plausible 4/5 starter on a good team. (Not that such an arm doesn’t have some value, of course.)
Overall, I’d say it’s a very good draft if Kozma & Descalso turn out to be average-to-above MLB regulars, and any of the hurlers become significant Cardinal contributors. The chances look pretty good right now.
azru,
I don’t see how those picks could be considered ‘overdrafts’ in retrospect; Descalso, Todd, and (to a lesser extent) Mortensen are outperforming nearly all of the players that were selected in the following round.
I’m just pointing this out because at the time of the draft, we were all claiming some of these picks were “absurd” on this very site. It’s just so tough to judge a draft at the time of the draft.
We’re approaching this from two different timesets though. 1) They’re outperforming players in the now. 2) Were they the best draftee available at the time.
Look how quickly the opinion of Descalso has changed this year. If a couple of the players selected after Mortensen turn into better players are we then going to go back to calling him an overdraft? I think the organization has done a really solid job coaching these two prospects. I think, back in the moment of the draft, I would have selected other players.
The biggest way to tell if someone is an overdraft is if they could have probably been had one or more rounds later than when they were selected. Example: If we could have waited until the 4th round to draft Descalso, then we could have used that 3rd round pick on someone that was taken between our actual 3rd and 4th round pick from that year and also had DD in the 4th round. He may be outperforming some of those players, but the idea of the draft is to get as much talent as you can. If you can get one of the other players in round 3 and then DD in round 4 it nets you more talent.
An example from this year would be Bittle (drafted in round 4). Even if he at some point performs like a 4th rounder, the consensus is that he would have been available in round 5 and probably even later considering his injury and senior status. Thus it becomes an “overdraft.”
at least, that’s my opinion of an overdraft
Agreed, Wade. Joe Montana would have been an overdraft if he’d been taken in the first round–just as Albert Pujols would have. It’s about accumulating the maximum amount of talent.
While I agree with the concept of avoiding overdrafting a player, a true overdraft can only be avoided if the Cardinals had access to the other 29 teams draft boards or after the draft (when it is too late). It is only with this knowledge could they accurately selecting a player before another team is ready to take a guy. The “consensus opinion” at the time said the Twins were overdrafting Joe Mauer or the Braves with Chipper Jones.
Just because the general consensus says Descalso (or whoever) is a fifth-round choice doesn’t mean one other club is ready to select him in the fourth round or earlier. IMO, they need to select the best player available each time (taking in account signability, etc.) regardless on what the consensus opinion happens to be. Otherwise it seems like you might as well be picking names according to Baseball America’s rankings.
Of course you don’t need to pick Albert (or Descalso, for that matter) in the first round.
But we have no way of knowing where other teams had Descalso or Todd on their draft boards. Baseball America might have called Descalso a possible 10th round pick, but if some of the Cardinals scouts thought highly enough of him to select him in the third round, then I have to believe at least one other team was thinking of him as a 3rd or 4th round talent. For that reason, I think you have to look at the player’s productivity (and forgive for injuries that couldn’t have been forseen by scouts) in the years following the draft to really decide whether or not the player was picked at an appropriate spot.
agree with most of you nmstar, however Joe Mauer was not seen as an overdraft. He was seen as the #2 prospect in that draft and with the money Prior was wanting, lots of people had the Twins taking Mauer #1 overall.