Tony LaRussa seems to have taken some heat for not wanting Brett Wallace in the big leagues. Wailing and gnashing of teeth seems to be the vogue response from fans as TLR “stonewalls” another prospect. I’ve alluded in the past why I agree with TLR in this area but let’s lay it out point by point.
1). He’s left handed. For a roster that already tilts severely towards people who were never taught the proper side of their body to utilize, Brett Wallace doesn’t help the Cardinals’ problem with left handed pitchers. Please don’t bother running to his minor league splits — his BABIP against lefties (over a small sample size) is ridiculously high. At best, you can argue that his plate coverage will let him hit both righties and lefties to an equal degree. At worst, he’s going to struggle.
2). He’s not really hitting that well in AAA. For all the clamoring to call up Wallace (and he’s admittedly been hitting better over the last 15 games), Wallace’s numbers are far from a sure thing in AAA. Baseball Prospectus’ MLE has him as a below average hitter in the majors based off his AAA performance. Read that again: a .252 EqA, which would be below average. He’s not walking much (6%), hitting for significant power (.142 ISO), and his average is predicated on an inflated .353 BABIP and 18% line drive rate. This isn’t a player that’s got AAA all solved.
3). His defense is a problem in isolation and in relation to the team. It would be one thing if the Cardinals had a stellar defense and were swapping out some of that defense for some offense. As a team, UZR has them at right at average and, regardless of the 3B component of that, that’s with some relatively athletic defenders (Joe Thurston, Khalil Greene) at 3B. Given the significant groundball tendencies of Chris Carpenter, Adam Wainwright and Joel Pineiro, adding a player who is almost certain to be a defensive liability to the infield is a concern. First base and shortstop are manned by excellent defenders but Skip Schumaker remains a question mark at second and the corner outfielders are nothing to speak of. This isn’t a team that has defense to spare in droves.
4). He’s not conditioned for it. Wallace isn’t in good shape. The additional wear and tear on his body relative to a college year is significant given the increased time on the field. Besides needing to adjust to simply more games, Wallace needs to focus on his conditioning and defensive repititions rather than the pressures of contention.
5). For better or worse, Troy Glaus’s return still haunts the decision making process. The Cardinals can’t and shouldn’t completely disregard the possibility of Troy Glaus coming back. At this point, the time required to wait and find out if he’s ready (let’s say another month worth of games) just isn’t that significant in terms of value that Wallace might out produce the current third basemen.
Is Brett Wallace the Cardinals’ third baseman on opening day next year? I’m inclined to believe that some in the organization strongly believe so. For me, he’s not. I don’t think the defense gets to passable levels. Given the right opportunity, I’d be building a package around Wallace for Roy Halladay right now. Whether that’s feasible from a financial standpoint, I don’t know, but that’s what I’d be trying to do.
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I agree completely with all of the listed points why Wallace shouldn’t be brought up this year. The only real counter point for me is that something absolutely has to be done to get Joe Thurston off the field. He is without a doubt the worst player I have seen in a Cardinal uniform since Luis Ordaz. The circumstances that led to this have been incredible. Glaus, Freese, Mather and even Barden getting hurt along with the odd FO decision that Craig is a non prospect. At this point, until Glaus returns I would recall Barden if he’s healthy. He can hit as well or better than Thurston, can field better and can occasionally make a correct decision on the field which Thurston cannot.
Your last point about trading Wallace depresses me. If he really is not going to make it big as a 3b power hitter then our system appears to be bereft of A prospects and there are no B or C prospect ready to ascend a level. It’s been a tough year.
I would think Halladay would cost us Wallace and half the farm. For Halladay, though, I would do that. His contract is up after next year at $15.75 million. If Mo offers Wallace, Jones, Todd and Riefer/Pham/Hamilton, is that too much?
Think Wallace, Lynn, low level pitcher (Fornataro, Nieto, etc), Reifer.
Something roughly analogous to the Sabbathia package.
BABIP isn’t something you cite just because it’s high. Look at his BABIPs in the minors: .388, .385, .348, .353.
Small sample size at each stop, sure, but there is evidence to suggest that he is able to sustain a high BABIP
With an 18% line drive rate? Think again. He’s hitting wayyyyy too many GBs (espcially given his footspeed) to have a .353 BABIP.
az- There should’ve been a “/” between Wallace and Jones, not a comma, so we’re sorta on the same page there.
A few things:
azruavatar – The deal would have to blow Toronto away more than the Indians on the Sabathia package. The reason is because Sabathia was guaranteed to not be signed after the year and they were out of the race. Halladay has another year on the contract AND the Jays are not out of the race at this point. Those are very big points on why it would take more. I think Wallace, Jones, Lynn/Mort/Boggs, and a lower level high reward prospect. That is a HEFTY price that I would not pay.
The Wallace discussion – I am all for him staying the minors for now. A few things to note. First DeRosa will be playing mostly 3B when he comes back in the next couple of days…so we have our fill in player until we can determine what is going on with Glaus. Next let the young man continue to get in a groove and continue to improve the defense (sounds like he has lost a decent amount of weight and is really dedicated to getting better defensively…thats a great sign). Next we have 3+ weeks until the trade deadline so keep him down their until we find out what, if any, other moves we make and how the team looks after that. Once the deadline passes we can determine how Wallace is doing in AAA and what are team looks like at that point. If Glaus somehow comes back healthy and can play 3rd he will be playing 3rd for the Cards. DeRosa will then spell Glaus on occasion and play his usual super utility role that gets him in the lineup about everyday. If Glaus is dealt or not able to make it back this year then they reevaluate the Wallace situation…but that would give him 1 month more in AAA to get prepared which will only do him good. I am a big believer in the concept of once you bring your star prospects up they are here to stay….so make sure they are ready.
Sorry for the long post…but this is a topic I am very opinionated on :)
I’m not trading wallace until i know his defense makes him too much of a liability at the ML level
unless the diamondbacks wants to give us dan haren straight up
I will preface this by saying I also believe Wallace needs to ride this year out in AAA and gracefully step into the starting 3B role next year for the Cardinals. We could still re-sign Derosa because we know TLR loves the utility guys and maybe, just maybe that could be the end of Chris Duncan in a Cards uniform as Derosa could take his spot as an occasional LF as well as filling in at 2B and 3B.
However, I do take issue with a few of your points:
2. I’m not saying he’s tearing up AAA pitching, but he is hitting well and to say that his AAA performance won’t translate to much success in the majors is completely unfounded. He has been tearing it up as of late, a sign to me that he is finally figuring out a higher level of pitching. I think the more time he spends in AAA, the less time it will take for him to get adjusted to MLB pitching which is why I’m in favor of him riding out the year in AAA. But a fabricated BA based off of AAA stats is one of the most bogus things I’ve ever come across in my life no matter how credible Baseball Prospectus is. Rasmus hit .249 in 79 games of AAA as well as 11 HR’s and so far through 75 games in the majors his average, slugging, OPS have all improved and his HR and RBI totals are nearly identical. He has actually improved his stats as a hitter since being called up, so who is anyone to say that Wallace is going to be worse in the majors? He has shown the ability to improve his hitting at each level, it just takes a little time for him to adjust… which sounds eerily similar to Rasmus.
3. I’m not arguing at all that his defense isn’t good, but lets throw a dash of perspective into this and look who is starting over him at 3B. Joe Thurston, Tyler Greene and Khalil Greene, with the possibility of Derosa as well. Thurston is just as bad defensively as Wallace, but he is worse at baserunning and is hitting below .200 since May, I think most of us would agree that Wallace could probably hit over .200 at the major league level. Tyler Greene is a SS who is trying to grab some starts, he is very good defensively but his bat has left a lot to be desired as well, I don’t feel he is anywhere near as good a hitter as Wallace could or will be, which makes Wallace a more enticing 3B prospect for the Cardinals, in my eyes, with their lack of offense being the most pressing need currently. Khalil Greene, who I don’t think needs to be in this conversation until he can figure things out mentally, is probably the best option at 3B defensively but his bat is horrendous and to me, the Cardinals could use a bat in the lineup right now more than a glove. Derosa can play 3B as well, but I think he is more valuable to the club if he replaces Chris Duncan on a daily basis in LF, or spot starts at 2B and 3B.
4. Wallace isn’t in good shape, but would you argue that a guy like Ryan Howard, Yadier Molina, Victor Martinez, Prince Fielder, etc. are? I don’t think his physique would hamper his ability to start 130-140 games, he has played quite a bit his entire life and it hasn’t caught up with him yet. I also think people are putting way too much weight into his size (pun intended). I completely believe Wallace is around 205-215 which is solid size for a 3B. He doesn’t have the body type to be ripped, he is always going to have a little baby fat, but it isn’t something that will hurt his ability to produce. I’ve linked a picture of he and Rasmus at Spring Training that I think shows it is easily believable that he is 205-215 at the time the picture was taken, and I seriously doubt he has gained any excess weight since ST. http://stltoday.mycapture.com/PHOTOS/STLT/695047/22363098E.jpg
Bottom line, I think some people are underestimating the projection of Wallace. He has been a TOP-NOTCH hitter his entire life and his defense has never been bad enough to sit him. He played at one of the best college programs in the nation, and if he was bad enough at 3B defensively, he would have sat his ass on the bench or DH’ed. He wouldn’t have been a 1st round pick if his defense was so bad that it was going to be a liability to a team. He is a very good hitter, with average defense who I expect to contribute next year at the same level Rasmus has this year.
Sorry for the long post..
Would be nice to have Ethan Martin or Aaron Hicks right now huh?
I vote leave Wallace at AAA all year. He should get every shot to make the team as the starting 3rd baseman next season and hopefully he sticks.
So far this season he has 10 HRs in his first full season of pro ball. I don’t think that is too shabby considering he was never a pure power hitter. Let’s see where his power numbers end up at the end of the season.
I envision Wallace as a .310-.330 hitter with 20-30 homer runs and 100 RBI.
He has shown the ability to adapt and adjust to different levels of pitching. Keep him down all year. A cup of coffee wouldn’t be horrible but I am ok if he doesn’t even see the majors this year.
Great post, jws003. I almost changed my mind to wanting him in the Show after your post even though you say you want him in AAA. Excellent points.
I agree with keeping him in AAA for the remainder of the year. However, aruz, you are a bit hyper-critical of his defense. If it turn out the kid can really hit then we can sacrifice his D. By recent reports, Wallace is losing weight and working on becoming a bit more athletic. By most accounts, he’ll never be a gold glover, but if he can be a bit below average on D his bat may be worth it. We just saw Pablo Sandoval – if Wallace can achieve something similar to that then we’ve got to consider him. (Side note – let’s ignore the Sandoval error that led to Rasmus’ walk off, as it hurts my argument.) His D still has time to improve, and the bat seems to be coming along nicely in his first year.
We’re never gonna’ get a Type A pitcher for Wallace until he displays some success in the bigs. Why draft him if you’re not going to give him a shot next spring to play 3rd?
The question here is…
“Is he better than what we currently have”?
Yes. He’s going to give you better at bats than multiple guys that are getting regular PT, thus giving the team a better chance to win.
That’s the name of the game. Winning at the big league level.
Wallace is a guy who uses the entire field, doesn’t chase bad pitches, and doesn’t have an extreme platoon disadvatage. He squares the ball the majority of the time he puts it in play. I don’t think he is a guy who would be overmatched, or someone who couldn’t deal with a little adversity.
The big league club has a chance to win, they should take it.
I agree. Leave Wallace down to work on his Defense. If he could play an average ML third base then maybe you bring him up.
i agree up to a point. i think my “don’t move him up” argument is pretty much focused around the concept of damaging his development.
i would be really surprised if he hits the cover off the ball initially, or even this year, in the majors. that said, i’d be surprised if he provided worse offense — or even substantially worse defense — than what we’ve got now. i don’t think he projects like an ordinary prospect, and I’d doubt that the 150 or so AAA PA’s he has to date translate into an ordinary MLE for an ordinary player.
He is LH, which doesn’t help us in our splits, but we have a general offensive malaise going on (team OPS v. LHP: .676; v. RHP: .760). a decent hitter, even a LH one, would be a boon.
I’m not very sanguine that glaus will come back as anything more than a PH. so, his role doesn’t concern me much.
i think the issues of conditioning and preparation are valid points. promoting him too soon into a pennant race could really put him in a tough spot. and i would like him to get more exposure as a third baseman in AAA and see him lose another 15 pounds (the pot will stop calling the kettle black in a moment) before he moves up. i will say i like having derosa there as a platoon split and a backup — it could take some of the stress off him.
I don’t see any basis in point number 1. Being lefthanded really doesn’t matter in comparison to his competition for playing time (e.g. Dunc, Greene, Ankiel, Thurston, et. all). To me the right thing to do is keep him in AAA and if by late August his trailing three month OPS is 850+ bring him up in a similar manner as David Price last year (e.g. somehow making him eligible for post season rosters yet still a Sept. callup). Brilliant move last year with price and I think we should do the same. This way you get all the benefits of a Sept callup without blowing a year of Wallace’s eligibility…. Plus you can use him as your 25th man in the playoffs… Also, no doubt Thurston should be down and Barden should be called up in the near term… As always, thanks for the post…
jws003- i agree with your post except for the part about his weight. If you look at other pictures from the same ST you will see he is MUCH bigger than rasmus, at least 15 pounds heavier.
I also believe he should stay down in Memphis for the remainder of the year, but for the people saying he is another left handed bat, so is Thurston who is playing the majority of the time at 3B. I know we acquired DeRosa to play third and he bats right but we could move him to LF and that would decrease the playing time of two lefties, Dunc and Ankiel, so that argument is essentially canceled out. As for his defense, my opinion is that it isn’t and won’t be a liability. While he is far from a great defender I think the defensive issue is blown out of proportion. I’ve heard doubt regarding his range and that his first step isn’t the problem, but its his fourth and fifth step that presents a problem. When is a 3B required to take a fourth or fifth step?? It is a position that requires a quick first step, which he has been reported to have, and quick reaction.
What some people who are in favor of calling up Wallace forgets about is the mental stress of the division race he will be thrown into. Baseball is a mental game and the stress could set him back a little. I think the worst case scenario is that the mental stress could cause his growth to be stunted. By the numbers he is a better option than anything we have at third, but for a guy who is just now starting to figure out AAA pitching why would you want to place him in the midst of a pressure packed divison race facing Major league pitching?
Tyler Greene down…..
Barden up…
Yippeee!!!
Well, if you don’t move Walrus up to replace Thursty, who DO you replace Thursty with? Because independent of whether Wallace should be in the majors at this point, Thurston quite clearly should not. Repairing that gaping wound in the 25-man needs to be a priority, and the obvious candidates (Barden, Craig, keeping T. Greene or Hoffpauir around once guys come of the DL) aren’t an obvious improvement. None of them are ever going to be significantly better than they are now, and they’re not that much better than Thurston. Walrus WILL be an improvement.
Don’t get me wrong — I’m not saying promote the guy. I’m asking for a viable alternative, and I don’t see one. And I certainly wouldn’t trade him — even straight up — for anyone with question marks as big as Holliday’s.
grunt — that’s HALLADAY, not Holliday. the pitcher from toronto.
if roy halladay has question marks, then let all our rotation be questionable.
Last game of the year for the division title, if it is Thurston at the plate with the bases loaded with Wallace cooling his heals back home after the Memphis season I’m going to be pissed.
i agree with all five numbered points. and i doubt that tony’s reasoning is the same, but i definitely agree with his reaction – amused disbelief.
i do think wallace could be ready for a look in september. especially if the cards are out of contention. maybe if they are in contention. i’m not convinced that every player would be overwhelmed by coming to a contending club. if his mentality is anything resembling that of colby rasmus’, i don’t think it would hurt him to bring him up in hopes that he is some kind of answer.
and i definitely, vehemently disagree with the last paragraph. wallace is the starting 3b next year unless glaus accepts arb. if glaus accepts arb, wallace comes up around the all star break when we sell glaus off for present need + prospects.
and there is no way i’m trading wallace for a (justifiably) extremely expensive pitcher when we’ll be getting ace production from carp for 2 more years, probably waino for 4 or however many years he has left on his contract. and then if we’re lucky, by the time carp goes his own way, shelby miller will be making his way to the majors to make a solid #2 or 3. even if we could afford him (which we can’t with pujols’ contract being a much bigger priority) i don’t give up a prospect that projects to have an all star bat and a glove that might just maybe make him too bad to play 3b. give him a full year at the position at the major league level (a la braun) and if he can’t cut it, then you sell. that way, you’re getting a sure thing and probably selling higher on wallace than you are now. is there a catchier phrase than “proven major league talent”? it also goes nicely with “impact bat.” and clubs are willing to pay fat prospects for both
only three players do i build a package around wallace for. those three players are evan longoria, tim lincecum and hanley ramirez. order of preference being hanley, then timmy, then longoria
Gruntosaurus- the improvement you seek is Mark DeRosa
tom s. I think Gruntosaurus was referring to Matt Holliday not Roy Halladay. Rumor has it that any conversation regarding Matt Holliday being shipped to the Cards would have to start with Brett Wallace. I believe the questions he speaks of are his stats away from Coors.
I agree, Wallace should not be called up….not even in September of 09. He needs to work on defense, footwork, walking, power stroke….everything you just said. However, I can’t say I agree with trading him at all. He is an impact player in the minors, at AAA nonetheless, and last time I looked, the Card’s minor league organization has few to none impact prospects who have the potential Wallace does. Halladay is nice, and the Jays could want Wallace after trading Rolen this year, but thats just too much in the starting rotation (Lohse has a no trade so he aint going no where…dont even need to mention Carp or Wanio) and for a team struggling for offense with no help (from within or outside) the organization insight, I think it foolish to trade the biggest bat that will probably come to help the Cards in the shortest amount of time.
Let’s see how Wallace does the next two months and if he can’t be contained with the bat, give him a September callup. Maybe in 2010 he could be traded for Doc Halladay /wouldn’t it be great to have Carp and Doc reunited and both healthy (; > ) !
Yeah , I’m dreamin’.
On the other hand if Wallace is ready in 2010 with improved D and a hitting machine it would be nice to have him hitting in the Cardinal lineup.
Wallace should stay at AAA until a late August or September call up. Use the time to prove himself defensively and continue to show progress on hitting and conditioning.
Then Wallace competes for a spot on the roster next spring. He’s not the starting 3B or even on the team until he shows he should be there. Nobody is handed anything at the major league level. La Russa will ensure that.
I would really hate to trade Wallace at this point. He is extremely close to the major leagues and we have the potential to have Wallace and Rasmus in the middle of our lineup for a long time at very little cost. Wallace’s bat has too much value to trade.
Correct, I intended Holliday, not Halladay. A trade for Doc, rather than Matt, would induce me to think twice about any Cardinals position player, current or prospect, not named Pujols — but I don’t think Toronto would be so insane as to go for such a trade.
I will be more convinced that DeRosa is the solution to the Thurston problem when (A) he shows he’s healthy, (B) he gets his batting average above .250 as a Cardinal, (C) all of the other things he’s expected to fix as a super-utilityman are fixed (e.g. right-handed pop in the outfield), and (D) he shows he can play adequate defense at third. In my view, all of these are in doubt. Make no mistake: I would much rather have DeRo on the 25-man than Thursty Joe. That doesn’t mean I consider him a solution.
Wow. What does it say about this organization’s minor league system, when the guy who writes for “FutureRedbirds” wants our best prospect (BY FAR) and other top prospects to be traded away? And for a 32 year old starting pitcher who’ll make well over 15 million dollars a year? Seriously?
Not sure what to say other than I think the writer of this column is possibly criticizing Wallace a bit unfairly, especially considering how small the sample size of his work is so far. Also, I have to wonder exactly how many times the writer has actually seen him play? I’ve read such widely different reports on his defense over the past few years that I truly don’t know what to believe anymore. But I do know that Wallace can absolutely rake and that is quite difficult to find these days. I don’t want to throw someone like that away for an aging pitcher who’ll be vastly overpaid in the not too distant future.
I don’t think it says anything about the system. It might say something about me but I’m not sure what you’re driving at then.
I’ve seen Wallace play about half a dozen times on video from Memphis games. Whether you think that as enough to make an evaluation of his skills is up to you but I’ve come away baffled that the organization thinks he can play 3rd base. I hope he proves me wrong.
What I find funny is that Halladay is a “32 year old starting pitcher” or an “aging pitcher who’ll be vastly overpaid” as a characterization rather than the best pitcher in the big leagues over the last 3 years. As I’ve said before, I’m not as high on Wallace as others and I think the club should be doing more to build a core around Pujols.
Grunt- DeRosa’s not a long term solution by any means at third but he doesn’t need to be. You were asking for a “viable alternative” and that alternative, that will give the lineup way more production offensively and defensively, is DeRosa. His track record the last few years and so far this year has proved that. Hopefully that injury isn’t serious or gets extremely worse once he tries to play with it, which I think is a growing possibility. Best case is he’s in the line-up tonight batting 4th or 5th and playing 3B.
RunSup,
Remember, LaRussa’s contract is over after this year, so he may not even be back. I think if we go with a different manager (which I am for – I’m tired of the LaDuncan era) they won’t have a problem playing a bunch of rookies and letting them struggle until they finally get going — under TLR’s eye, usually once someone struggles they’re promptly shipped back down to AAA. I’d like to see them spend a month or two and struggle up here – if they’re obviously overmatched and there’s no hope for them then yeah they can go back down, but if they show signs of improvement or obviously haven’t been given a good enough opportunity, why send them back down?
Az- do you have access to any of the video you speak of? I haven’t seen him play in person or any video of his defense and I would love to see for myself. It’s really discouraging to hear that you don’t think he is a serviceable 3B, but if he isn’t then we should definently trade him but not for Matt Holliday! But then if Albert leaves when the contract is up (God forbid!!) trading him would come back and bite us since we coulda threw him in at first. I completely agree with you that we need to put players around Albert! We have the best player in the game in his prime so it should be all about the ML level right now! Win while you can, you have the best player in baseball so take advantage of it!!
I subscribe to milb.tv — Memphis website has a multimedia link that takes you to their game archives.
pride, see today’s news item and my point A.
As for Halladay, Will Carroll at BP makes the topical and very important point that health is a skill. I think it is reasonable to claim that a 32YO, All-Star-caliber pitcher who has that skill is a hotter commodity than a 28YO, All-Star-caliber pitcher who doesn’t. I would also claim that Halladay’s career has demonstrated that he has that skill. He may be the one guy out there that I would be tempted to move Walrus for, along with as many as two others of the top 10 prospects. I still don’t think Toronto would do it.
Grunt- Yup I got the news, disapointing day right?