It’s me again, and yes, it has been awhile.

One of my favorite days of the year has to be draft day.  For a hyperventilating prospect geek like myself, it is like Christmas in June.  And this year, the draft happened to fall on my birthday.  What a gift.

I thought it would be fun to do a draft review here with a couple of the guys who were in the draft day chats.  erik and the baaron were up for it and here is what we came up with.

erik

Favorite Pick: Shelby Miller. Finally, someone in the system with “ace” potential. I’ll swallow a little crow about how drafting HS P’s in the first round is total and utter madness, as so far in this decade that trend is turning. Still a little skeptical, but it’s hard not to love the upside here.

Will Surprise (Rounds 1-14): Jason Stidham, I think can be Daniel Descalso, Part 2. I don’t know if Robert Stock counts as a possible surprise as such a high pick, but I think he’ll figure things out and hit.

Will Surprise (Rounds 15-50): C.J. Beatty, the OF from North Carolina A&T. He’s pretty athletic, bats switch and has hit for some power, both in college with metal and in summer league with wood last year. He is said to have a pretty good arm in right field.

Questionable Pick: Scott Bittle. He has borderline 1st round talent and could really pay off, but his medical history is a mile long and they just had just picked another relief pitcher in Joe Kelly in the 3rd round.

Total Head Scratcher: No picks left me really scratching my head.

First to Make the Majors: Joe Kelly. Prototypical power reliever that you would expect to go quickly through the system. Scott Bittle would go even faster, if he magically can stay healthy.

Most Likely to Bust: Shelby Miller. /ducks. I say that because he’s a first rounder, has higher expectations and is the good ol’ high school pitcher risk pick. Some have questions about his secondary stuff. That said, I like the pick and have a good intuitive feeling about how he will do, just being (semi) logical.

Player You Most Wanted the Cardinals to Pick That They Didn’t: Max Stassi in round 3. A good plan B should they not sign Shelby Miller.

Overall Draft Thoughts: I like this draft. Luhnow had to be doing back flips when Miller fell to them. Stock, Bittle and Jackson were all mentioned as possible first round picks at some point in their careers. Virgil Hill Jr. and his bloodlines are intriguing as all get out, and I like some of the college performer picks in Stidham, Conley, McCully. Hector Hernandez, David Washington and Tyler Bighames are some interesting high school picks taken later. My expectations aren’t sky-high for this class, it could boom or it could bust. But they took some high ceiling picks, a welcome change from the status quo.

theredbaaron

Favorite Pick: Miller. He’s the philosophical direction I’ve been hoping for.

Will Surprise (Rounds 1-14) Either Stidham, especially if they hook him up to a car battery, or Virgil Hill. The sheer athleticism from Hil is extremely exciting.

Will Surprise (Rounds 15-50): Tyler Bighames. Getting a kid with that skill set and potential in the 31st round is just hard to fathom.

Questionable Pick: Alan Ahmady. I know he’s plenty talented, but just looking at this kid’s track record, you have to wonder what the deal is with him.

Total Head Scratcher: Patrick Daugherty is a college pitcher who only threw about 20 innings and had an ERA of about 9.

First to Make the Majors- I’ll agree with erik again and say Kelly. I know they want him to start for now, but I think they’ll take the path of least resistance fairly soon, and just let his stuff take him up the ladder in the ‘pen.

Most Likely to Bust: See, this is an interesting question, and I’m not sure how to answer. Miller is probably the correct choice, but there are also several players I literally don’t think have any chance of ever contributing anything meaningful. So I suppose my question is this: does a player have to have potential in order to become a bust?

Player You Most Wanted the Cardinals to Pick That They Didn’t: Brett Nommensen, OF from Eastern Illinois.

Dustin Mattison

Favorite Pick: Shelby Miller. Finally, the Cardinals have a bona fide ace in the system. As most observers have reported, Miller at number 19 was a great value. I know that a lot of fans are worried that the organization won’t get him signed but I don’t think the selection would have been made if they didn’t have every intention of signing him. If signability was an issue, I truly believe the team would have went with a safer pick.

Will Surprise (Rounds 1-14): Joe Kelly. If the fire-balling right-hander can hone his craft well enough to be a starter, he could be the Cardinals’ version of A.J. Burnett. Kelly has a high nineties fastball with an above average slider and solid changeup. But health will be key with the pitcher.

Will Surprise (Rounds 16-50): Justin Edwards. In an organization in desperate need of left-handed pitching, Edwards is a big-bodied southpaw who should chew up innings. Overlooked by teammates and first-rounders Chad Jenkins and Kyle Heckathorn, Edwards has the look of a quick riser.

Questionable Pick: Robert Stock. Don’t get me wrong, I really like the pick. The two-way talent has tremendous upside as both a pitcher and a catcher. I just think that the team might have been able to get him later.

Head Scratcher: No one player, I just don’t understand why the team waited until the 10th round to pick a left-handed starter. With reports that the team was going to focus on stocking the system with southpaws, the team chose fewer lefties this year than last.

First to the Majors:  I believe the Cardinals are going to develop Bittle and Kelly as starters. The one who does not prove healthy enough to handle the innings of a starter could rise rapidly through the system in the bullpen.  Again, if healthy.

Most Likely to Bust: I agree with my colleagues and choose Miller. Not that I don’t think he can be tremendous, it is just the odds are not in his favor.

Player You Most Wanted the Cardinals to Pick That They Didn’t: Chris Dwyer. I was hoping the team would go with a high upside southpaw in the second round and Dwyer seemed to be the most interesting choice to me.

Overall Draft Thoughts: I really like the upside potential in this draft. Stock, Miller, and Kelly present three interesting starting pitching prospects and possibly the most interesting three the organization has seen in a while. I really like some of the live arms in the later rounds and I believe that Bighames could be a steal in the 31st round. I would have liked Luhnow and the gang to have addressed the lack of left-handed pitching and don’t understand the fascination with six-foot right-handers.

Over at the Birdhouse, I have had the opportunity to chat with several of the picks.  If you are interested check them out.

This weekend, I will be in St. Louis for the All-Star weekend.  The family and I will be hitting the fanfest on Saturday and catching Sheryl Crow and Elvis Costello at the Arch that night.

Sunday morning, I am running in the 5K with a couple of the guys who contribute at whiteyball.  Then Sunday afternoon, we’ll be at the Futures Game.  If you are going to be at any of these events, let me know.  Maybe we could meet and talk some prospects. Just drop me an email.

Feel free to contact me at dustin@whiteyball.com.

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This entry was posted on Wednesday, July 8th, 2009 at 12:00 pm and is filed under 2009 MLB Draft, Futures Game. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.