Not speaking for the whole FR crew, just myself.
Getting right down to it, I’ll go 1-17. 17 because Miller makes the list in spite of still being unsigned (still too early to worry about that) and one of these guys is likely a future Indian.
- Brett Wallace – Seems to have made the adjustment to Triple-A.Would like to see more in the power department, but the whole best pure hitter of the ’08 draft tag seems to be sticking well. Caveats about his defense aside, easy #1 for me.
- Shelby Miller – Assuming he signs. I’m less worried about his secondary pitches than some, he has breaking stuff, he just abandoned it in order to impress scouts with gun readings. High risk, very high reward.
- Daryl Jones – Hello people, scouts, gentleman and miscreants. He’s not been even close to 100% all year, in spite of a recent slump, he still looks like a future lead-off hitter with good defense. Not prototypical power from a corner guy, but Colby in center sort of cancels that out.
- Wagner Mateo – Headline maker because of the bonus. Money talks, and it says the Cardinals are big believers in the bat.
- Clayton Mortensen – Lanky sinker-baller with a three pitch mix. Performing nicely, with a 4.18 tRA* in Triple-A.
- Jaime Garcia – Yet to see if he can come back successfully from Tommy John, but the success rate is mostly good. For me, Garcia and Mortensen are the only pitchers in the system that have some #3 upside. Sign, Shelby, sign.
- Daniel Descalso – Has taken a big step up as a hitter and from what I gather, scouts believe in he’ll be average defender or a tad better at 2B.
- Jess Todd – I still can’t get his “eh” Futures Game appearance from last year out of my head, no matter how hard I try, but it’s just too hard for me to argue with numbers — 3.27 MLE FIP. Only Ryan Franklin has better FIP in the big club’s bullpen. I keep flip-flopping on Todd, I admit it.
- Lance Lynn – Big Hoss looks to be LAIM. League Average Innings Muncher. Nothing wrong with that. Minor league equivalent FIP is 4.79, which makes his VOTC (Value over the Colonel) about half a win.* *not quite.
- Pete Kozma – It’s the 1st rounder that everyone loves to hate. He’s the homely infielder who doesn’t do anything really well but play steady defense, and that has come into question due to high error totals. Errors are overrated. He still has plenty of time to develop, and shortstops don’t have to be the world’s greatest hitter to be above average. Questionable rush-job by the FO to put him in AA, but for what it’s worth, when you neutralize his stats for luck/park at MinorLeagueSplits.com, you get a .282/.340/.382 line. If he can eventually hit that well in the majors, and be a +5-+10 run defender, then you have a very valuable player. Perfect world scenario, I know, but it seems semi-possible.
- Adam Reifer – Victim of .414 BABIP. Shouldn’t be getting hit this much with a 70 grade fastball/60-70 slider, peripherals close to the same as last season. (3.38 FIP in ’08, 3.38 FIP in ’09. Weird.) Man-crushes die hard.
- Francisco Samuel – Stuff on par with Reifer’s, has stuff to close in big leagues now, but seems to have no idea where the ball is going once it leaves his hand. 19% BB/PA.
- Eduardo Sanchez – Mid-nineties heat with a nasty breaking ball. Upside isn’t quite the same as Samuel’s or Reifer’s but has very good idea where ball is going – 6.7% BB/PA.
- Roberto de la Cruz – Terrible, terrible start in the GCL after getting talked up by Luhnow and Co. about possibly starting at Johnson City. That aside, we’re talking about a 17-year old that was considered the best pure hitter out of the Dominican last year. Again, bonus $ talks at this stage, for me at least.
- Robert Stock – Thought to be a slam dunk 1st rounder at just 15 years old, graduated early to go to USC and bat conked out. Just 19, and hitting just fine in the Appy. .302/.434/.465. Still can pitch should bat stall again.
- Tyler Henley – Can field well at all three outfield positions, makes excellent contact.
- Shane Peterson – Cut down on the K’s, but what happened to the walks? OBP was a big reason he was drafted in the 2nd round (.506+ in college) With odd swing, questionable power seems sort of “tweenerish”, but the end results have been good so far.
HM (in no particular order): David Kopp, Adam Ottavino, Bryan Anderson, Jon Jay, Aaron Luna, Joe Kelly, Scott Bittle, Ryan Jackson, Tyler Norrick, Blake King, Charlie Cutler.
Kopp has been hurt. Ottavino could benefit a change of roles. Anderson still is young and it’s not his fault the organization prefers no-hit catchers. Kelly could be another Reifer. Bittle can’t stay healthy but has an absolutely sick cutter. Norrick is striking guys out at a furious pace since getting moved to the ‘pen and could be more than just a LOOGY. Jackson has the whole Adam Everett thing working for him. King seems to be slowly figuring things out. Aaron Luna is my new favorite heart-throb. Looks like a TTO second-sacker, does have a ways go defensively at the keystone, and has some holes in his swing, but pretty tremendous power — .283 ISO…in Palm Beach!
Debate away, but dissension with these rankings only reveals your ignorance. Unlike other prospect rankings, this one completely objective and bias free.
Entries (RSS)
Great List. I don’t know that I would put de la Cruz up there yet; I know his bonus was sick but I want to at least see him have some success before leaping him over Luna, Kopp, ect.
I think Kopp, if healthy, has a chance to be a top 5 prospect
Bryan Anderson … oh how the mighty have fallen.
Think Henley should be a tad higher.
Garcia rises w/o throwing a pitch – is that a reflection of your mood at the moment or has our system really just dropped that bad. Same with DeLaCruz -he rises despite sucking eggs at a level below where he was expectd to start when the last list was made..
our 3rd, 4th, and 5th round picks (one hasn’t played and 2 who have been weak) rise to the HM catagory? Man you must be really down on the existing crop. Petersen was 2nd round last year (picked higher than Stock) had a good season and didn’t even sniff the off season list.
Riefer? He’s looking like the Ottavino of relievers right now. He’s not showing himself to be a future closer and a middle reliever shouldn’t be that high.
Freese isn’t a prospect anymore?
Garcia has #3 upside. ’nuff said.
less than 50 plate appearances in the GCL for a 17 year old does not kill his prospect status. You can’t go on that. You go on tools, and his hit tools are supposed to be pretty good, that’s why they gave him over a million dollars. I was actually tempted to rank him higher last year but chickened out.
Reifer is the recipient of some tough hit rate luck. Don’t know why, his stuff hasn’t declined one bit. Like I said, his FIP remains exactly the same from last year. He’s basically the same player as last year.
3-5 rounders were all considered to be 1st round talent, at one time, other than Kelly, and Kelly’s stuff sounds like it’s right up there with Sanchez’s.
Freese is 26. He’s moved from prospect to interesting older minor leaguer. 25 is like the absolute oldest I would consider about anyone and them still be a prospect.
How would Henley have to finish the year to be top 10? If Stock keeps this up, does he become the next Nico/Niko?
erik – didn’t mean to be so negative. overall not a bad list. thought your HM for early picks was a little optimistic though. There are reasons they fell other than signability.
I don’t get it. Casey Mulligan is 21 for the rest of this year and is succeeding at Palm Beach, while Riefer is 23 already and not impressing anyone at Palm Beach. Yet Riefer is #11 while Mulligan is nowhere to be found.
tools. tools. tools. talking to people who see them play, Mulligan is succeeding on guile almost alone. Reifer has two potential 70 grade pitches.
This is a really tough list to make this year, especially at this point. The system is down, there is no doubt about that. At this point Wallace, Lynn, Jones, and Mort are the only guys I really see making much of a showing in the bigs over the rest of this season and next. I still think Boggs can be a starter and Samuel has great stuff so if they would put it together all the sudden then I’d add them to the group. Wainwright and McCellan are good examples of that happening. In my mind Todd is a swing man at best and its to early to think about Garcia but I feel good about him coming back better than ever.
Boggs has too many big league innings to qualify, or he would have made the list. Really having a rough season this year, though.
Nice list, erik. I mostly agree, with a few exceptions.
I would put Luna on the list. Someone asked me at VEB what I thought of him, and I said if he sticks at second, he’s a top fifteen prospect, and I stick by that. His bat is good enough he could probably make it as a left fielder, but he also looks like he’s going to stay in the MI. That’s an incredibly valuable talent.
Personally, I would put Sanchez ahead of both Reifer and Samuel at this point. You say he doesn’t have quite the upside, and you may be right, but he’s also the only one of the three trending in the right direction. Samuel looks as if he may be stalling, with the command just not improving at all, and I don’t know what in the world is going on with Reifer. Adam is still one of my pet prospects, and I still think he’s going to be dynamite down the road, but right now, Sanchez is progressing, while Reifer and Samuel are treading water. Also, I got to see Sanchez’ breaking ball in person, and it is absolutely ridiculous.
Henley should be a tad higher, in my ever so humble opinion. DJ Tools has the tools, yes, but Henley has the numbers. As a founding member of the Henley bandwagon, I demand you give him his proper due!
I’m not real high on Peterson. Just one of those guys I can’t quite figure out what he’s supposed to be. The results are good, yes, but I’m not a believer just yet.
I’d put both Norrick and Sam Freeman above Peterson at this point. Norrick in particular is putting up some pretty remarkable numbers.
Really glad to see someone else giving Stock a bit of love. I think he’s one of those guys who’s actually being hurt by an interesting story. Everyone thinks he’s a bust, or at least a disappointment, because he didn’t turn into Albert Pujols at USC. He’s still only 19, hits plenty well for the position of catcher (for most MLB teams, anyway; my own feelings on the priorities at catcher are probably pretty well known by now), and, as you said, still could fall back on pitching if he doesn’t make it behind the plate. Personally, I think he’s going to be a big surprise at catcher and turn into a really good player.
Finally, as someone who has been worshipping at the altar of Wagner for quite a while now based on three minutes of video, I have to say I wouldn’t include Mateo here just yet. Probably not De La Cruz either. I know the bonus money says the Cardinals really like him, but I can’t take a team’s word for how good their prospects are. They have to like the guys. Personally, I just don’t think we have enough to go on in order to put either of them on the list. When we have a bit of track record to work with, see how they play against other minor leaguers, then I’ll start ranking them. For now, though, I just have to leave them off, based on a lack of information. (Probably have to do the same with Miller, too, though we do at least have his performance in school and lots of scouting to go on there, so I’m not sure what I would do.) Just my own feelings, though.
I’ve asked around on Luna because I share your excitement given the ridiculous power he’s displayed. Was told he “has a ways to go” at 2B and not to get overaggressive about ranking him.
Thanks, TRB. I debated where to put Sanchez. You could really throw them in about any order and come out OK. I could see giving it to him b/c of his control.
As for Stock and Kozma for that matter, I have no problem ranking them a little more aggressively because of the whole positional adjustments thing. You don’t have to be the world’s greatest hitter to play those positions, just hold it down, play some decent defense and you’re providing a heck of a lot of value.
I’ll have to explain the method to my madness sometime.
Riefer is having rotten, javier vasquez type luck this season…his stuff is too good not to be a prospect
Todd’s bad showing at last year’s futures game does not concern me, it was one game on the biggest stage of his career to that point, can’t get good reading in one game…what does concern me is that he came up and pitched one day for the cardinals and was throwing in the mid-80′s…and yes, i realize that i’m being hypocritical
stupid question, you say lynn will be league average…is that the same as replacement level, or is league average better than a replacement player?
like your list…i’d switch descalso and mateo…also move luna into the top 17 and drop de la cruz out…mateo and de la cruz need to prove they can do it on the professional level…miller doesn’t because he will win 10 cy youngs in a row starting in 2014
league average is a lot better than replacement level. Just to sort of simplify, League average is something like 4.5 ERA. Replacement level is like 6.00.
You’re replacement level is too low. Looks like 5.20 FIP (Jeff Suppan) is around replacement level this year for starters and probably half a run lower than that for relievers.
I’m not around here but what about Walters or Hawksworth? Both have made good big league apperances in the last week. Nikos still has the tools hes just real young and maturing slowly? has Tyler Greene been in the bigs too long to be considered for this list cause he still has alot of upside of he can learn to make consistant contact.
I consider PJ, Hawksworth and Greene as grads. If they haven’t officially they probably will. Niko was considered and I still think can have maybe a Daryl Jones turnaround, but wow, what terrible performance.
I’m a rookie poster here and I want to let you guys know that this is my favorite Cardinals website, even over VEB, but doesn’t our system look considerably weaker because we’ve promoted so many guys? Does that take their prospect status off when it happens or am I missing something. Looking over this years beginning prospect list to now is soooo different. It makes me laugh.
Last week or so hes been hitting the ball good, how old was he when he was drafted?
Is the last mini-paragraph a joke? It seems quite condescending
Hah. Very much a joke. No prospect list doesn’t have some bias and all of them are very much debatable.
Great list Erik. Almost identical to my personal prospect list. 2 more names that are on my personal top 30 that didn’t get mentioned somewhere on this thread:
Scott Gorgen
Sam Freeman
Yeah, Freeman is interesting. Gorgen…eh. He didn’t pitch all that well in the FSL, where he should pitch well. Smallish, not a good fastball, excellent change. Sort of the not-selling jeans version of PJ Walters, with less control. I kind of like him, but am not a real big fan.
I too would be inclined to swap Descalso (who’s starting to attract some attention beyond the Cardinals boards) and Mateo. Too much can go wrong with a 16YO, even an incredibly athletic one. Give him one year of showing that he can handle the pro-ball life without getting a sprained brain (or whatever organ causes some young talent to go off the behavioral deep end), and I’ll be much happier to move him up the charts, but that ranking is too high for him as of today.
No love for Steve Hill? Not enough to give him even an HM?
And as for Reifer, I wonder (and I mean this as posed — hypothesis formed, no preconceived notion as to whether it’s correct) whether an absurdly high BABIP is entirely bad luck, or whether it’s trying to tell us something. I remember seeing, from up close, a certain Very Big Name among current major-league pitchers at a time when he was not doing well at all, and I was almost surprised that his BABIP wasn’t exactly 1.000. Major-league hitters were just loading up on the guy, and EVERYTHING was hit hard. He made some changes later so that they weren’t hitting it so hard, obviously, but not everyone makes the necessary changes; indeed, most don’t. Where’s that ridiculous BABIP coming from? Obscene numbers of dribblers slipping through? Or way too many hard-hit balls? It matters.
Reifer’s LD rate (against) is 23%. That’s high – not .405 BABIP high but real high. With no one on it is 36%. Looks to me like he could be tipping his pitches (particularly from the windup). In any case, a 23% LD rate does not a closer (probably not even a major league make.) yes, he’s had bad luck but that is not the whole story. 2 pitches that rate 70? Where are they? Its not like he is some raw youngster.
Wasn’t there a kid named Ryde Rodriguez that people were drooling over a few years back? What happened to him, and where would he slot in an all inclusive prospect list?
Thanks erik…so if lynn were league average this year, he’d be worth a couple of wins over the course of a season, is that about right? if it is, then yes i agree…having a player that can throw 200+ innings and be worth 2 or so wins on the cheap is very valuable(i was about to say valuable commodity, but i am taking a marketing class, and i don’t think most people know the real definition of the word commodity…i certainly didn’t before today)
Good list. Like everyone else I’d do some different things. I find it hard to put anyone in the best prospect list who hasn’t signed (Miller), hasn’t played an inning of professional ball (Mateo) or who hasn’t played a good inning of professional ball (DelaCruz). I would put Descalso as high as third (partly to be provocative and get people to notice him) and I think highly enough of Todd to put him fourth. I’d move Garcia and possibly even Kozma ahead of Mort. I’d like to move a lot of other guys ahead of MOrt but it’s been a bad year and I can’t. NOt that high on Mort if you can’t tell. Moving Miller and Mateo out would put Reifer in my top ten. He’s actually been pretty good lately. Freeman might actually sneak in at ten for me. He’s young, he’s been good but inconsistent and he’s needed. I’m concerned about Henley’s age for his level but at least he’s putting up numbers. The rest, well, it’s been a bad year but I like what I know about Stock and Kelly and, in this tough year, I’m going to put in a vote for Grabiel Hernandez, DSL or not for the top fifteen.
Thanks for starting this topic. It’s always fun.
Where do players like Charles Cutler and Matt Carpenter fall? Does age play a factor or is it just too early to tell. Especially with Cutler, he seems to be handling the bat with ease and for me is a very exciting prospect…or at least intriguing.
Sorry, one more note. I don’t think it’s wrong to continue to put Ottavino in this list. I rate young starters more for their last start than previous inconsistency. Ott’s last one may have been his best ever. He’s got the “stuff”.
i think ottavino may be a setup man on the major league level…he has shown a fastball at 97 when he is in short inning situations, so i think he could be a good one…i just see more value in a good set up man than a starter with control issues who is very hittable at times
Did I read it here or somewhere else that it’s believed the organization screwed up Ottavino?
Looking closer at Luna – does it matter if he can play 2B (particularly with Descalso ahead of him)? Even as an average OF he’s our best full season hitter right now with a park/luck adjusted OPS of over 1.000 – and he’s not old for his league. Considering 2B just a bonus, even as an OF he should be ranked.
Can I request a prospect profile on Luna, do I have that kind of influence?
yeah, i was actually already thinking of doing one in the near future. stay tuned.
Peterson is underrated by 5-10 spots.
He’s *younger* than Daryl Jones, is a more complete hitter (will hit for average), and is a more complete outfielder (has an arm) than Jones.
Not knocking Jones here – just don’t see how these two could be so far apart on this kind of list.
Put another way:
Why is it a knock on Peterson that he’s ‘tweenerish’, but with Daryl Jones his unorthodox skillset for corner OF is OK because Colby makes up for it?
Results aren’t as important as tools when predicting overall future impact, at least at this point for both players. Peterson is an odd duck to say the least, and I haven’t heard anyone rave about his tools, ever. He’s not a great defender and no one seems to be convinced he will hit in the big leagues.
Long time lurker first time caller… An interesting question to the community: if Ottavino were shifted to a bullpen role, how would his short duration stuff compare to the other highly thought of bullpen prospects (Sanchez, Samuel etc.)? Understand that he’s older and that would play also. It’d be nice if the futures game had pitch f/x available, then I could do a Samuel v. Ottavino look from that perspective.
Good question. As for the pitch f/x, I don’t know, Sammy wasn’t on his A game and Ottavino was during the WBC, so that won’t come out quite fair. But I think you’re right about Ottavino, a switch to the bullpen might change things for him. His secondary stuff is lagging behind a bit, or so I understand, but if he can come out of the ‘pen pumping strikes with his fastball a tick or two higher than when he’s stretched out for 5 innings, could make a difference.
So then why rank Peterson over Jay who has + defensive tools and most people think will hit in the big leagues?
contrary to some of the FO guys saying they think he could win a batting title, Jay has also long had the whole “tweener” question, and he’s stopped hitting. but yeah, you could interchange them and it wouldn’t be a big deal. Some people really like him, others see a 4th OF. Jay could come on and shoot back up the list.
It’s just my own little ranking, take it for what it’s worth.
It’s not just you, and maybe it’s just that emotions are hard to convey online, but I’m just a little bit surprised by a few of the comments where people are all up in arms about their pet prospects or arguing about so-and-so getting snubbed. it’s pretty clear to me that as you go down the list, you can interchange a lot of these guys and not do them a big injustice. They are all “C” guys. No big deal.
This is just for fun, take it with a grain of salt.
Loved the midseason list, but I have a question on the ranking system. It seems like the Cardinals like most major league franchises have designated 2B as the least important position on the field. It also seems like most franchises will also try anybody who can field at all at 2B. So if you are going to assign extra points to someone who can field at SS. Don’t you have to subtract points from anybody that is strictly a 2B prospect?
I agree this list is taken way too serious but we’re Cardinal fans, that’s what we do. I love this site because living in Portland I get limited info regarding minor league talent and this site including comments generally has everything needed. That said, I do think people disect this a little too much. That truth is we have one horse in our system and that’s Wallace. Todd is going to be an Indian shortly so you can take him off this list. Until Miller signs it’s a pretty good system but not an elite. Anything after two and you can switch any which way. That said I do enjoy reading about it each day.
I’m pretty excited out of what Daniel Calhoun has done in the past year. It’d be great to find out what kind of stuff he has, because the numbers, the size, and the freakish wrong-handedness are all good signs.
Great list and discussion. It is always good to reevaluate the prospects mid-year as so much can change in half a season. The only philosophy I disagree with in your assessment is prospects are graded on their tools only. I personally think that it is a combination of tools and what you have done and what level AND when your projected to hit the majors. So for fun here is my Top 15 list:
1) Wallace – we all know about him :)
2) D. Jones – I am higher on him than some…I think he will be a very good MLB player and give the Cards another speed guy that could be top of the order material which we have been lacking for years. With that said he needs to work on his BB and cutting down his K’s a touch. He has the ability to be a leadoff hitter if he works on aspects of his game to fit that type of hitter.
3) Miller – I usually don’t put a HS pitcher just drafted this high on any prospect list. But Miller is special…because we have no other SP’s that are ace or #2 type pitchers he has to this high. Could easiely be our #1 prospect this time next year.
4) Todd – The little man just keeps getting it done. He is a 7th/8th inning guy for me when he gets adjusted to the bigs. I still think we gave up too early on him as a starter…but what can ya do.
5) Mortensen – To me he is the best pitching prospect we have that is high enough in the minors to consider close to MLB ready. I agree he projects very well as a #3 type starter and if all goes well is my favorite to take the #5 rotation spot for next year.
6) Garcia – Very close Mort but with TJ it knocked him out of my Top 5. A lefty that also projects well as a #3 type starter. If he rebounds and shows no ill effects from TJ then I think he will be with the big club mid-next year in some capacity. I like Garcia alot.
7) Descalso – This guy has a chance to be the starting 2B for us next year…but we all know TLR is not a fan of just saying “Here ya go” to any rookie. So my guess is he gets the opportunity to be a role player for awhile and if he has some success they give him more and more time. By the end of 2010 I can definitely see him manning 2B for us. A guy that was off many peoples radar at the start of the season…but he keeps putting up numbers.
8) Mateo – I couldn’t bring myself to put him any higher than this on my list. The big bonus and projections are fine and all….but at 16 yrs old I need to see him for 2 years in the system to get anymore excited about him.
9) Kozma – As everyone always says…he is not flashy and isn’t exciting in any one aspect of his game. But I believe he is a solid defender and will hit enough to play everyday in the bigs. Any SS that is projected to do that should always be in the Top 10-12 prospects in your system.
10) Lynn – I liked this pick in last years draft and he is moving up the system. Another year in the minors to continue to grow and face advanced hitting and he moves up my board. I only see him as a #4 type starter in his prime…but every team needs 5 starters to run out there every 5th day to succeed.
11) Samuel – Electric arm with not so electric control. If he ever starts showing progress in his control he will shoot up my board…but that also assumes he is still in our system at that point.
12) Henley/Jay – I lump these 2 together because I like about that same. I think they both project as fringe starting OF in the bigs…but both will be very valuable 4th OF’s IMO. I think I project Henley a touch higher than Jay…but Jay is more advanced.
13) Reifer – With his stuff only he has to make the list. If/when his stats start looking like his stuff he will be in my Top 5 no questions asked.
14) Luna – I liked this kid at Rice…I liked when we drafted him and I like him now. His stats aren’t exactly eye popping but he is starting to figure it out.
15) De La Cruz – On potential only he had to be squeezed into the Top 15. Hopefully we see some progress in the next year.
I don’t know if Kozma would make my top 15. Are we ranking him there just because he’s a first round pick and we feel bad that everyone has bashed that draft pick? He hasn’t really impressed at all in pro ball. He doesn’t look like a complete bust yet, but let’s be honest here. He hasn’t showed the ability to hit for average, he has shown little to no power, and very little speed on the basepaths. If we were talking about a player like DJ who was known to be very toolsy I would be ok with ranking him that high, but we know this to not be the case. Therefore, I can’t really justify ranking him that high. I have much more optimism for Brendan Ryan’s future.
First off, love the list. I would throw Matt Adams or the 3B Carpenter in there at least in honorable mention. Adams has hit like no other prospect we drafted and I think he could continue that hitting very easily at higher levels. Also, I was excited about Carpenter when we drafter him, very athletic and has hit very well already as well.
One question, would anybody be opposed to seeing Craig be called up in place of Duncan? He offers hardly any bat and NO defense. At least Ankiel plays hard, has a good arm and great range. I would even take Jay over Duncan. I’m I in the minority here?
Hey guys, i know he’s getting a bit old for a “prospect”, but what has happened to Fernando Salas?