Please Mo say it isn’t so
Posted on July 23rd, 2009 by erik in Brett Wallace, tags: Matt Holliday, Trade rumorsBilly Beane may have the last laugh yet. Word is Mo may be willing to part with our Beloved Walrus to get Matt Holliday. This is simple math, people.
Brett Wallace is one of the most valuable commodities in all of baseball. Baseball America recently ranked him the 24th best prospect in baseball. According to Victor Wang’s studies, that means his surplus value is about $25 million bucks. Matt Holliday is probably worth a win or two (closer to two) to the Cardinals, or about $7-9 million. He stands to get paid $6 million more for the rest of the season. He’s going to be a Type A free agent, and the general accepted value is a 1st round pick is worth about $5 mil. So Holliday’s total value is something around $8 million.
$25 million > $8 million.
You don’t trade a top 25 prospect for a rental. Period.
(Thanks to Sky for the inspiration).
Update: According to playoff odds, Holliday increases the Cardinals odds of reaching the playoffs by 15%, and up to 45%. So he’s no guarantee to vault the Cards into October. Sure helps, but no guarantee. According to Jonah Keri, a playoff appearance is worth $25 million. So $25*.15 and figuring inflation and you got another $4M. $25M is still greater than $12M. Hat tip, vivaelpujols.
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If I knew this trade would get us to the World Series, I’d do it in a heartbeat. Without that assurance, I just don’t know if I’d condone the trade. It’s just so risky.
would rather have Willingham considering the cost. Plus, isn’t Willingham still in arb years?
Please don’t trade another top prospect to Oakland..
I would rather move the Wallrus up to the majors now and stick him in the OF.
How involved is Lunhow in decisions like this..he can’t be happy that we are starting to dismantle the farm..
omg. I saw “Holliday” and thought “Halladay” and was like “Go for it, Mo!”….
No to Wallace for Holliday, just no.
Fear not.
If Mo was willing to trade Wallace for Holliday the deal would be done already. Wouldn’t be any need for this “speculation”
I’d be surprised if that article had any truth in it. Trading Wallace for 2 months of Holliday doesn’t make any sense, and I doubt Mozeliak would even consider it. Now, if it were Jones and a lesser prospect, I’d have to look close at that one.
MO won’t do this. there’s no way after the Duncan mess he’ll do this. if they won’t trade him for the best pitcher in the game, there’s no way they’ll trade him for an overrated left field rental.
If Moz does this, he should be fired on the spot. If Tony is pushing for this, he should be fired on the spot. Such a monumentally idiotic idea it’s almost hard to put into words.
I don’t get the varying opinions on Wallace’s value. In another thread people were saying Wallace isn’t going to be any more than Sean Casey. It was said he would top out at .280 15 HRs and 80 RBI. I don’t get that either.
I think we need to hang out to Wallace UNLESS it gets us Halladay.
Personally I think we just need to forget trading Wallace all together. Pencil him in the lineup with Rasmus and Pujols for years and we have a great middle of the order.
^Who said Mo wouldnt trade Wallace for the best pitcher in the game? Mo WOULD but doesnt have the other peices to get Halladay.
Am I the only one who thinks this is possibly a good thing? If we sign him to an extension, and Ive heard he would love to play in StL, then u have a good defender in left, more speed on the bases, and a solid 4 or 5 hitter that would bring excellent stability to the lineup. Holliday cleanup, Ludwick 5th, DeRosa 6th all behind Albert???? Are you guys considering that we have the BEST PLAYER in the WORLD on the roster right now!!?? If Albert doesnt sign an extension we could have possibly only ONE championship to show for his services! I think Albert would love this trade! Now it wouldnt give him “protection,” nobody will, but it could make other teams pay for pitching around him with Luddy, Holliday, DeRosa, and Molina behind him.
If Wallace cant stay at 3rd, which he more then likely cant, he would have to go to LF and be a below average defender. PLUS he still hasnt proven that he will produce in the bigs, a cieling of 20 shots and a .290 avg sounds right, but that could be 2 or 3 years from now. I say sell high, and as long as we sign Holliday to an extension we will not regret it! The farm will take a BIG hit but this isnt and never has been about the farm its about the big leagues and winning while we have the best player in the world.
Anyone thing this is the FO way of placating Larussa for what happened yesterday with the Duncan thing? Larussa may be high on Wallace but he sure doesn’t show it and he wants to win NOW seeing he may not be around for much longer. This may be a peace offering from Dewitt and Mo to try to make Tony and Duncan happy
Mo’s job should not be keeping his manager happy. It should be about building a winning ball club with now and the future in mind.
one problem, pride of peoria, is that we would not be getting good value back for the walrus as erik points out. even if he’s not a 3b long term, the walrus could bring us much better stuff than holliday — halladay is tempting. clay buchholz would be another trade target worth considering. a long-term cheap, cost-controlled option in the rotation or on the field would be a good haul.
holliday is under contract through november. he could refuse to sign with us. even if we did a trade-and-sign, we would then be under the obligation to pay him $15M+ per year for many years to come, at a position where we have several up and coming prospects. by trading wallace, we’d also have to look at either relying on a wounded freese or paying another FA 3b. the money just isn’t there, especially if you want to keep pujols on the roster beyond 2011.
Holliday is one of the better corner OFs in Major League Baseball and would give the Cardinals two 1st round picks if they don’t get him back.
Brett Wallace is a future first baseman/DH. This isn’t the Cardinals giving up a future first baseman/DH for Mark Mulder; this is for one of the very best hitters in the game. Wallace was drafted to be traded.
I heard a rumor that Boggs has been pulled from his start tonight. Anyone know about that? Trade for set-up relief, perhaps?
I hope Boggs gets us more than something we don’t need.
Andrew my opinion isnt that this is an attempt to appease Tony, but that this was part of plan all along.
Tom S.- I understand there is great risk involved. And who are these up and coming prospects? I visit this site every morning and I love following prospects and hoping they make impacts in the majors but other than Jones I’m not seeing any possible impact players. While I like DJ I think he is years away…by the time he makes an impact or even gets in the bigs to stay Albert could be gone. I would love to see Wallace batting second, in front of Albert, Ludwick, Rasmus, putting Rasmus down in the order so he can actually use his speed on the base paths, but if Wallace cant stay at third as predicted his move to left would block the aforementioned up and coming prospects at the position as well.
Wallace could land us a much bigger package IF we had the other peices, B prospects, to package with him, but my honest opinion is that we dont. Which i must say is personally kind of hard to say and upsetting.
So i assume everyone on this site is SOLD on Wallace? He is the main guy I get on this site and check for, but I believe Holliday is a really good all around player. Above average speed, good glove and arm, good bat equals a really good overall player. Put him in this lineup with Albert, an on-fire Ludwick, and a solid DeRosa and he’ll thrive. But if he doesnt sign an extension this would undoubtedly be a bad move in hindsight. If the money isnt there for Holliday than the money isnt there for any other impact player that would be considered “good value” for Brett.
I’m starting to align with the idea that Wallace was drafted as a trade chip. Everyone loves a sexy bat, Wallace does have that. The notion that the front office is even considering a trade tells me they have no confidence of him contributing at the major league level as a 3B. I think the price is high for a rental, but maybe the reason this hasn’t happened yet is due to extension negotiations. With an extension, I’d be very pleased with the deal.
Also, had a freind in Dallas say he heard Ludwick and Motte for Holliday. Any Thoughts?
That would be worse.
Whenever talk of trading for a rental comes up, people say, “Well if he signs an extension it’s ok.” Why does signing an extension even come into the equation? If you sign him to an extension you’ll be getting him at free agent market rate or close to it, so where is the benefit exactly?
Exclusive negotiating rights?
I wouldn’t trade Holliday for Ludwick straight up, Ludwick has figured things out and is hitting better than Holliday is in the last few months and his stats are better on the year. Plus he wont cost as much and we wont have to deal with Boras
Mikedallas45-
The reason it makes a difference is that he’s locked in, and can’t depart after two months. When you trade for people you assume their contract, so if an extension is signed you aren’t trading a top prospect for a rental, your trading him for a perennial piece of your team. Presents a much different value.
This is an insane thought. Wallace > Holliday for two months. Ludwick > Holliday in general. I agree we need to make a move but trading our best prospect for a rental is a disgusting thought and unacceptable considering this organization’s “commitment” to building from within. ARGH!
I think the general consensus among scouts is that Wallace won’t stick at 3B. To me, that lessens his value considerably, considering he’s in an organization where 1B is just not a possibility (that’s assuming we lock up Albert long term, which I think we will). Yes, he was drafted to trade, and Holliday would certainly stabilize the outfield AND we get him for a few months to allow him to fall in love with St. L, much like we did with McGwire, Rolen, and L. Walker before him. If Wallace could pick it at 3B and had plus range, we would not be having this discussion because he’d be with the big club already.
Mookie –
He may be a perennial piece of your team, but he is a piece that you are paying full market value for once you extend him. You could achieve the same thing by just signing a big-ticket free agent in the offseason, without giving up your best prospect.
I’m really not in the mood to see Beane bend us over backwards again. I could definitely deal with Mozeliak sending over Daryl Jones and maybe a guy like Boggs for Holliday, but I can’t honestly see why Mozeliak would seriously consider sending a hitter of Wallace’s ability for 2 months of an under-performing left fielder. I like Holliday and think he can do better outside of the A’s, but not to the price of our top prospect.
Yes Wallace is valuable. So were Felix Pie, and countless other “prospects”. They’re a crapshoot.
Top 25 hitting prospects are less of a crapshoot, that’s why they are so valuable. I’m not against trading Wallace. I’m against trading Wallace for a rental. We should be getting = or greater value, not lesser.
Mikedallas45-
As HL pointed out you do get exclusive negotiating rights. But on top of that, he’s a type A free agent. So if we weren’t to sign him we’d actually get whoever signs Hollidays first pick, and a supplemental (correct me if I’m wrong). If we were to sign a player like Holliday in the offseason we’d owe someone else the same pick. By doing a trade and sign you protect your future draft picks, signing players like him in free agency you are trading your future top prospects away.
If Wallace doesn’t look like he’ll stick for us maybe our #1 for next year will.
now that’s more of a crapshoot. For every Colby or Wallace Luhnow has drafted, there are Kozmas and Ottavinos. Nothing against those two, but their not even close to being Top 100 material. A bird in the hand…
How can we expect to resign Albert for what he’ll command if we trade away cost-controlled talent for expensive rentals? We have to have guys like Rasmus and Wallace on the team to be able to afford Albert and our expensive, fragile rotation.
I take umbrage with the notion that Wallace is a top 25 prospect. I know that the mid-season rankings place him there but when you consider all the former prospects that have “graduated” from the rankings this year and that 2009 draftees are not included in these rankings, you are left with a diluted list.
I understand some might view this as nit-picking but if you are using Wang’s studies to assign a specific value to Wallace, this inflates his value. Thus, the equation of $25M > $13M is not accurate.
That said…yeah, I don’t think it would be a good trade.
Ok, so $22 >$13. Wallace isn’t sliding out of top 50.
Holliday just isn’t that good. He’s a solid hitter, with some power at a low-value defensive position. Trading Wallace for Holliday and signing Holliday to an extension will be paying for him twice; once with players and once with cash. Such moves set franchises on a budget back years. It isn’t like the Cardinals Minor leagues is awash in top prospects so that they can afford to give one away for a guy that likely will give you similar (or less) production but cost more.
This type of move is wasteful and foolish on so many levels, that people don’t see it truly confounds me. In one fell swoop you 1) get older, 2) get more expensive, and 3) trade away your best prospect…..and in return you get a guy that has an .800 career OPS away from Coors. This is good how? Next year Wallace could give you the same offense, is cheaper and nearly 7 years younger.
…and you can’t count on getting picks back because Holliday might actually accept arbitration (which would be bad). He sure won’t get the contract he’s looking for if that team also has to give up their 1st rounder. For a team on a budget, that would be really unfortunate.
dang, that last sentence should have been deleted
Really? That’s our level of analysis? Felix Pie was once a prospect, therefore Wallace is just as big a gamble?
File that with “Mark Mulder was a free agent pitcher; Roy Halladay was a free agent pitcher; ergo, do not trade for Roy Halladay.”
If this was a Ludwick or Holliday debate it would be a no-brainer to choose Ludwick. Similar stats, Ludwick is cheaper and we already got him. But add Holliday to an outfield with Rasmus and Ludwick and you have a scary good OF imo. Holliday’s #’s are down but most people would rather bash him for it instead of considering he is playing in the one of the worst hitting parks in the bigs. Now I’m not saying he will put up Coors #’s, in fact I don’t think he will again, but saying that his #’s this year are similar to his splits away from Coors are unfair. He has been on a tear since May, has had to adjust to a new league and pitchers, is in a hitters cemetary, and doesnt have much of a lineup around him. He leads his team in Runs, RBI, SB’s, OBP and SLG. He is 2 points back in avg and 2nd in HR’s. Imagine him with Albert, Ludwick, DeRosa and a healthy Glaus.
It does make me a little uneasy when thinking about the money especially since I would love to resign DeRosa. I love Wallace as much as the next guy, I just want a solid lineup and team around Albert so we can win while we have the best player in the world and also so we can keep him!
If Matt Holliday isn’t that good after OPS+ seasons of 137, 150, 140 and now 125, then I’d like to know what constitutes as “good.” Because normally hitters that average an OPS+ of 138 are usually among the top hitters in the game.
And please, people, stop pointing out a BA ranking as proof that Wallace is somehow untouchable. BA rankings are completely arbitrary, unlike real numbers, which say that Brett Wallace isn’t ready for the major leagues and that Matt Holliday is an elite hitter.
Not trying to be difficult, but if Holliday declines arbitration the team that offered would get a supplemental first rounder as well, correct? If that’s valued at $3M, things get closer still.
Again, I don’t think that’s it’s a good deal but I don’t believe it’s as simple as your formula makes it out to be.
Like it or not I agree with PrideofPeoria that this is more than a 50/50 bet. I think Dunc was traded to make room for an outfielder and it looks like it might be Holliday. In the end it all depends on what you think about these two guys. Obviously having Holliday, even if he’s not the hitter he seemed to be in Colorado, gives us a better shot this year. Our FO is in a better position to evaluate Wallace’s potential than anybody else and they may have come to the conclusion that he’s a first baseman and a Sean Casey type hitter. If so why not trade him before everyone else sees that? On the other hand I don’t see the fascination for Holliday and I think we can chalk it up to another TLR obsession.
I think this is going to happen and it is a lot better than sending Ludwick for him. It also makes some sense to get him and see how he hits in Busch and then making a decision about whether to try to extend him rather than trying to sign him or a similar guy over the winter. The real killer would be if they decide not to and then don’t offer him arbitration. It seems impossible but we’ve done it before.
Yes, I can’t understand why La Russa has a fascination for good hitters, either.
I am getting to be stunned at what comes out of people’s “mouths” here.
“stop pointing out a BA ranking as proof that Wallace is somehow untouchable. BA rankings are completely arbitrary, unlike real numbers, which say that Brett Wallace isn’t ready for the major leagues and that Matt Holliday is an elite hitter.”
The numbers also “prove” that Nick Stavinoha is one of the best hitters at Memphis. Unfortunately, he doesn’t have the capacity to perform at a major league level. They “prove” that Evan Maclane is a better pitcher than Clay Mortensen. That’s why scouting and subjective evaluations are really important. That doesn’t mean that BA is infallible; it just means that “numbers” are only part of evaluating a prospect.
It amuses me to no end to read stuff about Holliday like “I heard he would love to play in StL” when the guy’s agent is Scott Boras. I have read the same garbage about him wanting to play in Southern California. I bet someone can find a similar article in Boston, Chicago or anywhere else where a team can get him an eight-figure multi-year deal. He’s going to sign where can get the most money (or close to it). If the Nationals paid him a lot more than anyone else come November he’d be smiling and telling the world how he grew up a Nats fan.
Sure, numbers aren’t the only part, but the scouting also says that Brett Wallace will never play an inning of MLB third base.
BA rankings do not prove anything, though, and that was my point.
And if Holliday tells people that he grew up a Nationals fan, I’d find that really strange.
The guy probably won’t ever play 3B is a reason to trade him away for a 2 month rental?
A Wallace for Holliday trade will turn out to be very expensive, but I’m sure you’ll feel much better about it when Wallace it OPSing .920 every year while playing LF for Oakland while Holliday trots off to the Highest bidder after laying an egg while making a very small difference for this year’s club.
That Pujols may eventually leave is NOT a good reason to make bad decisions.
What we’ve established, then:
*Wallace will OPS .920 every year
*Matt Holliday will lay an egg
*The Cardinals will lose Holliday
Can you explain why you think Wallace will OPS .920 every year (something he only did between QC and 13 games in the Texas League last season) and Matt Holliday will lay an egg, something he hasn’t done since he was 24?
Although its possible that Wallace will OPS at a .920 clip in the majors for Oakland, it’s not probable. He’s currently has a .783 OPS at Memphis. That does not translate to a .920 OPS in Oakland by any stretch of the imagination. The PCL is considered a hitter’s league and the stadium in Oakland is a pitcher’s park. And you’re not even considering the transition from AAA to MLB. BP’s MLE OPS for Wallace is .754 and their peak MLE OPS is .809. You can argue that BP’s translations are incorrect but I think you’re overstimating what Wallace can do.
Dave Cameron at Fangraphs estimates that Holliday would be a 1.5 win improvement over a replacement outfielder for the remainder of the year. Considering that Ankiel at the moment is the definition of replacement (not even considering Stav), than that improvement could be the difference between making the playoffs or not.
wow snayke, sounds like you don’t wallace much but plenty of other people do..you are in the minority
I think the only for sure out of the three is we wont be able to keep Holiday. Being a Boras guy hes going to the highest bidder, and granted his value has really dropped and he wont get what hes acting for someone will pay him alot. Boras guys for the most part pits teams against each other and drags things out. We don’t need that this off season. That being said if part of the deal is that Holiday ages to a 2 or 3 year extension at a rate of about 14 it would be worth doing. Maybe Boras will see the valueof his guy down and recommend him take 14 for a few years and then go back on the market? Who knows
My take…and I think there are others on this board that seem to agree. You don’t trade someone of Wallace’s caliber for a rental that is not a Top Tier player….Period. I am not even sure you trade him for a Top Tier Rental. Even if we could find a way to deal of Holliday without Wallace involved it would still take a ton to get him…I am not for a trade for him since it will take AT LEAST 2 of of our Top 10 prospects. I am a much bigger fan of going after a pitcher (probably a #4 or #5 type to take Welly’s spot would be adequate….but if we can get Halladay (yes Roy!) then I could deal with that too!).
Paper Lions- Everything I said is based on him signing an extension. If we are truly trading Wallace for a 2 month rental of ANYBODY with the intention of not resigning him then that would be a horrible move, that goes without saying. As far as the “That Pujols may eventually leave is NOT a good reason to make bad decisions” comment, If we make the move after agreeing to an extension or sign him to an extension in the offseason there is absolutely no proof that this is a “bad decison.” Maybe that proof will come in 4 years, but in 4 years Pujols may also be long gone. If we cant put together a team that can win a championship with the best player in the world on it then theres no way we can without him.
As far as packaging Wallace for a “top tier” player or a player more valuable than Holliday who else in the package? The farm is not loaded with impact pieces! In fact most scouts view our only impact piece as Wallace, so whats the package? Also many people are complaining about the farm getting weaker, well if you want to package more prospects with Wallace for a bigger haul wouldnt that be depleting the farm more?
Sadsushi – I like Wallace just fine, I just think he’s extremely overvalued. Right now he’s a third baseman headed to either first base, left field or the bench. He also has questionable power.
JC, please tell me how someone that has averaged an OPS+ of 137 and is about six wins above replacement not elite.
Snayke, when that player posts inflated numbers in Coors and no where else that doesn’t makes them an elite player.
Oh, and I think Holliday is very good–but certainly not elite.
Snayke – When I consider Elite OF’s Matt Holliday doesn’t make my list. He is in the 2nd Tier with many other OF’s. His numbers while in Colorado were inflated a touch so I don’t take his stats and say they are apples to apples with others. The point being you put Wallace along with at least 2-3 other mid level or above prospects for 2.5 months of Holliday is not worth it.
It’s already been said, but most players hit better at home than on the road. And in 2007 and 2008 Holliday hit .890 and .860 on the road while playing about 50 games at Dodger Stadium, Petco and whatever they call San Francisco’s park.
OPS+ normalizes OPS for park factors. If you average a 137 OPS+ playing on the moon that still makes you an elite hitter.
Snayke – We agree to disagree.
That’s fine, but I’d still like to know when outfielders that put up Holliday’s numbers become garden variety, second-tier players.
Holliday
MLB Rank in Park adjusted runs above average, via Fangraphs
2006 – 16th
2007 – 7th
2008 – 10th
I’m a longtime lurker here. I like having great prospects as much as anyone, but the reason we have those is to help the big league club. The Cardinals might get to the playoffs without someone like Holliday, but I think he’s as close to a guarantee as there is and he gives them a shot at a World Series against teams like the Phillies and Dodgers and Red Sox.
As to when is the right time to trade Wallace, who knows when that is? Billy Beane wouldn’t trade straight up for Wallace before, what makes anyone think another team is going to accept him for 1 1/2 or 2 years of another Holliday type player? Toronto wanted Wallace and more for Halladay. As soon as you call him up and those defensive stats start showing up, some of the shine comes off. If he stays, I HOPE he’s a good fielder, but scouts are doubtful. And putting him in LF doesn’t do much for me.
Wallace can benefit the big league club now, and if Holliday is on the roster next week the Cardinals are a better club. If Luhnow continues to do a good job with the minors (signing Miller/Mateo types) I don’t see why it’s a big deal.
Snayke – I don’t consider someone with 25HR’s and less than 100RBI’s last year and on pace for less than 30HR’s and just below 100RBI’s again this year elite. Its what have you done for me lately and the last year and a half he is not showing the numbers of someone that is elite. I am not saying he is not very good….just not elite. Like I said….we agree to disagree.
JC-
And HRs and RBIs are awful ways to measure hitting prowess. RBI is a better indicator of how well the TEAM hits as opposed to how well the individual player hits.
Holliday’s got a .381 wOBA park adjusted and he is still a very top defender.
137, 150, 140, 125
Okay, late to the conversation again, but I also had always thought that top 25 hitting prospects were a lot more stable than top 25 pitching prospects alsoand I repeated this mantra to my friend who was skeptical, so I started pulling up top 100 prospect lists from past years to make my case, but came up with a surprisingly high number of busts, players who never made it or who were below average when they did (Delmon Young for example) and a surprisingly low number to stars. All of which leads me to wonder how somebody can come up with a 25 million dollar value for these players? More explanation needed?
It’s an average value of the top 11-25 prospects from I believe 90-99.
WOW…you have to get the last post don’t ya. I can look at baseball-reference.com just like you can and see the stats. Thanks. If you so stuck on the OPS here ya go:
Matt Holliday – .926 Career OPS (including all the years in Colorado) – Which is very very good. To note his career Minor League OPS is .780
Brett Wallace – .861 Career OPS (yes in the minors) – but your hung on this being the only stat that counts that it is good measure of an elite player.
So Holliday has the slight OPS edge but comes at the cost of Wallace PLUS 2-3 other mid-level or above prospects for 2.5 months of his services. And Wallace has a much higher OPS than Holliday in their Minor League Careers. Wallace is already here and doesn’t require us to give 3-4 solid prospects to get him…and he is cost controlled for 5 years. So keep posting your OPS+ stats and using them as your only reasoning for saying Holliday is elite. I disagree with you….period.
Now moving on…
I actually kinda got tired of reading a bunch of the comments, but I would like a poll to see who would like a Halliday for Wallace trade vs. who would like a Willingham and we keep Wallace trade. Willingham may cost us some prospects (maybe DJ +) but i would be more in favor of that than Holliday.
The problem here is that people are acting like
a) Holliday is the same hitter he was in Colorado. He is not.
b) The Cardinals could re-sign him and somehow still have money for Albert. They could not.
Therefore this is a rental, at the expense of our ONLY top rated prospect. Are we really going to win the World Series with Holliday? Really? Wow. If that’s the thinking, which it has to be to make this trade make sense, then people are more confused than I thought. No wonder Holliday’s pedestrian stats in Oakland seem to be escaping everyone.
To me, the issue isn’t really how good Holliday is or isn’t. He’s pretty good. It’s 2 months. 200 or so AB’s. I can see a rationale for trading Wallace, but you need something a little more longterm than that.
The angle about him being a Cards fan and wanting to sign means nothing. If he wants to sign so bad he still can in December. And the picks stuff isn’t unique to Holliday either. He’s not the only type A out there. Rather get one that hits FA in a later year.
First off, Chris K – great post, completely agree with your view point.
I have thought about this trade all day since seeing it mentioned as “50/50″ by Buster Olney. Let me preface my opinion by stating that:
a) I’m as a big a Brett Wallace homer/supporter as you’ll find (The best X-mas gift i’ve recieved in years was a Walrus Future Redbirds shirt from my mother)
b) I’m more excited about him as a prospect than anyone in the organization I can think of in recent memory
Despite my obvious man-crush on him, I get the feeling he has darric barton bust potential. When we traded for mulder, I would bet most on here could’ve lived with giving up Haren and Kalero, but Barton? Without looking up any past stats (I’m tired), I believe Barton had superior numbers (though younger in age) than Wallace has displayed to this point. That’s not to say Wallace is another Barton waiting to happen, I just can’t get too excited about a Sean Casey comp. Best case scenarion – he is a reincarnation of L. Berkman, obviously that would hurt if it came to fruition. Not to go Strauss on everybody here, but maybe we are overvaluing him as a prospect at this point. It is possible he hasn’t been called up to protect him from being exposed in the field and/or at the plate. I completely agree that he could’ve merely been a best player available/trade chip pick in last years draft. IF this is strictly a one-for-one swap, I do it, albiet reluctantly. Our outfield immediately becomes above-average offensively/defensively at all three positions, and strengthens our bench by keeping Ankiel in a primarily pinch-hitting role. If the Phillies/Dodgers/Brewers fail to land Halladay, one would assume our team stacks up favorably against any in the league. I know prospects are near and dear to all on this site, but isn’t a championship the ultimate goal as a fan? Someone posed the question that does adding Holliday mean we are going to win the championship. my response to that would be no, nothing is certain, but it definitely makes us better suited to do so. A better question might be “Does adding Holliday make us a better team now than in October of 2006?” To that I would say absolutely.
We are a better team RIGHT NOW than in October of 2006.
The Oakland numbers are a small sample size, though he’s still at an OPS+ of 125. He had a rough April. Since then he has an .895 OPS. For July it’s .999.
Willingham’s not a bad option, but in contrast to Holliday this year is abnormally good for him. There’s no reason to believe that will continue at the same level, whereas there is good reason to think Holliday will regress back to his former level. It appears he already has.
The Cardinals could certainly afford Holliday and Pujols. Glaus is being paid 12 million this year, and Kennedy about 4 million. The payroll is already reduced from where it was last year. So there’s room to work in there. Aside from all that there’s not a salary cap in this game, so if ownership wants Holliday they can have him. I see no reason to think it can’t be done IF the team is motivated to do it.
And personally I’m fine just trading for three months of Holliday and an extra draft pick. The calculations on Wallace’s theoretical value don’t do much for me. The stated numbers seem unrealistic in the real world, given Wallace’s limitiations. The only reason Wallace gets us Holliday as it is (and that’s an IF) is that Holliday’s value drops as the season runs out. If this were the offseason we’d be talking Wallace+Todd+someone else.
can someone explain to the poor polisci graduate over here the math that arrives at wallace being valued at ~25 million dollars? i’m reading the hardball times post on the subject with not much understanding.
Their 2009 annual goes over it in greater details. Sorry. I’ve went over it again and again at Beyond the Boxscore when I went over the farm system values for each division.
Sorry to pull a BP and tell you to just take my word for it, but just take my word for it.
Quick question — are the names on the PTBNL list for DeRosa untradeable to any team except the Indians at this point? That would seem to limit Mo’s options somewhat.
If they’re willing to trade Wallace, and willing to add $5-6MM in payroll this year, then I’d much rather the Cards throw in a few more prospects and get one of baseball’s best pitchers.
Holliday in 2500 minor league PA’s, .780 career OPS (there’s a good reason he was never a top 100 prospect).
Holliday career at sea level <.810 OPS
Holliday's a nice player who turns 30 in a few months, so the odds of his decline phase starting soon are a little scary. I wouldn't make the trade unless Holliday had given the Cards his verbal assurance to turn down their arbitration offer, thus insuring the two extra draft picks.
But even then, I'd curse the Cards for blowing the very rare opportunity to add an elite starting pitcher. Here's hoping this Holliday/Wallace talk is merely public posturing to gain a bit of leverage in their negotiations with the Blue Jays for the good Doctor.
The upgrade from Wellemeyer/Thompson/Flotsam to Halladay, even over just 2+ months, is probably 25-30 runs. PLUS there's the secondary effect of saving the bullpen from overwork, which might be worth another win. That's a lot more of an upgrade than Matt Holliday will likely provide.
Halladay yes, Holliday no. ;)
Is Holliday the difference between this team winning the WS or not? I don’t see it. 2006 was awesome, but you can’t count on winning the WS every time you are the worst team in the playoffs. The playoffs are a crap shoot. If the Cardinals make it in, they will have a slightly less than 1 in 8 chance of winning the WS (probably less than 1 in 10). Is that really worth giving up several years of cheap (potential) production that could help the Cards get into the playoffs many times?
Selling the future for a small upgrade to a mediocre team is simply not a good decision.
Here is where I don’t see the money add up. If we trade Wallace, we need a third baseman. To get a serviceable one on top of signing Pujols to the monster money he will demand as well as the monster money it will take to retain Holliday (a Boras client don’t forget) and your new third baseman? We will also need to buck up for pitching. I don’t see how the budget works on top of the fact that deep down I don’t like trading six years of a cost controlled hitting machine for two months of declining “protection”.
“a) Holliday is the same hitter he was in Colorado. He is not.”
…except that he is.
“b) The Cardinals could re-sign him and somehow still have money for Albert. They could not.”
And why couldn’t they? They gave $192 million to Scott Rolen and Albert Pujols about 15 or 16 months apart.
Veteran: Why would the Cardinals need to go find a third baseman when they could plug somebody from Triple A into the spot? Brett Wallace isn’t playing third base for any major league team in baseball, so if he’s with the Cardinals, he goes to left field and they plug someone from Triple A into the spot anyway.
Holliday’s numbers, because people keep referencing single stats:
2006: 155 G, 119 R, 45 2b, 34 HR, 114 RBI, .326, .387 OBP, .586 SLG, .973 OPS, 137 OPS+
2007: 158 G, 120 R, 50 2b, 36 HR, 137 RBI, .340, .405 OPB, .607 SLG, 1.012 OPS, 150 OPS+
2008: 139 G, 107 R, 38 2b, 25 HR, 88 RBI, .321, .409 OPB, .538 SLG, .947 OPS, 140 OPS+
2009: 93 G, 52 R, 23 2b, 11 HR, 54 RBI, .286, .378 OBP, .454 SLG, .832 OPS, 125 OPS+
Now, clearly, the season is not over, and more than likely he will be traded to someone, because that is why Beane acquired him from the Rockies in the first place. Also, Scott Boras is his agent and will milk his Colorado years for a contract & years.
Holliday is 29. Looking at those numbers it becomes clear that not only is he not the hitter at 29 in Oakland that he was at 27 in Colorado, he is also not the hitter he was at 26 in Colorado. In fact, while his OBP has continued to rise, his current slugging percentage is the lowest ever for his career, and his OPS also.
The more I consider this the less I am bothered by it. Holliday is very good, and we need an offensive upgrade over Duncan & Ankiel, certainly. I would be much more inclined to let Wallace get a shot later in the season at 3b/LF, but that’s just me. We have the pitching we want (Wainwright/Carp) for the playoffs, we got DeRosa, Rasmus is up to stay, maybe we should try for it.
But Holliday is not the hitter he was for the Rockies. And he will not be easy to re-sing, nor do I expect him to. And Beane has a history of fleecing our organization.
To me, those are serious negatives. But not as deal-breaker as I thought.
“Brett Wallace isn’t playing third base for any major league team in baseball, so if he’s with the Cardinals, he goes to left field and they plug someone from Triple A into the spot anyway.”
Really? Like Mark DeRosa? That seems like speculation to me. Also, even if it is true, and this is just a 1 for 1 swap, which it isn’t likely to be, shouldn’t we at least *try* Wallace in the majors to see if he can hit? Because then rather than Holliday in LF we have Wallace, for many years (including the next few with Pujols) rather than very little in 2010. We can’t do this every year because we don’t have any chips if we do. That means next year we’re going to have a similarly mediocre offense and no top prospects (though draft picks…).
It’s not speculation when there’s not a single scout that says he can play major league third base.
It’s speculation to say that the Cardinals can’t afford Holliday and Pujols.
Ok. Well, doesn’t matter now. I would say though that both of those are speculation based on information gained from the internet. Unless you are a scout (which I mean seriously, not sarcastically)?
Either way, let’s hope the season gets better from here on out. Please, please, please don’t let this end up like the Mulder deal, where we got very, very little in exchange for several players.
You have to hand it to Beane. He trades very, very well.
Will – respectfully disagree on Beane here. I think he gets a free pass for being Billy moneyball once again. Since the winter of 2004 (trades of hudson/mulder), the A’s have gone to the playoffs exactly once, getting swept in the 2006 ALCS by the Tigers. What direction is that team going or what has he proven as a GM since then? Sure in hindsight we were fleeced on the Mulder trade. But as i stated above, I gurantee you that Barton was the diamond in the Mulder deal to Beane, not Haren. He absolutely exceeded anyone’s expectations, became “ace” material in Oakland, then was turned around and dealt to Arizona (terrible deal). I do think Beane is a brilliant mind, yet these trades have resulted in exactly one playoff appearance since 2004, with not a lot of hope in sight for that franchise. Congrads to Mo for a bold move. SP is not our weakness, it was absolutely run support. I’ll take Carp/Waino/Piniero/Lohse against any team in the NL right now and like our chances. Someone here, or on another site mentioned that a base hit has been the remedy multiple times for our offense, especially with albert on base. THAT is what holliday brings to this team. He is a hitter more than a power hitter, something that a potential acquistion such as Dunn can’t provide.