Comments on: Please Mo say it isn’t so

By: Matt B

Matt B — Fri, 24 Jul 2009 18:48:32 +0000

Will – respectfully disagree on Beane here. I think he gets a free pass for being Billy moneyball once again. Since the winter of 2004 (trades of hudson/mulder), the A’s have gone to the playoffs exactly once, getting swept in the 2006 ALCS by the Tigers. What direction is that team going or what has he proven as a GM since then? Sure in hindsight we were fleeced on the Mulder trade. But as i stated above, I gurantee you that Barton was the diamond in the Mulder deal to Beane, not Haren. He absolutely exceeded anyone’s expectations, became “ace” material in Oakland, then was turned around and dealt to Arizona (terrible deal). I do think Beane is a brilliant mind, yet these trades have resulted in exactly one playoff appearance since 2004, with not a lot of hope in sight for that franchise. Congrads to Mo for a bold move. SP is not our weakness, it was absolutely run support. I’ll take Carp/Waino/Piniero/Lohse against any team in the NL right now and like our chances. Someone here, or on another site mentioned that a base hit has been the remedy multiple times for our offense, especially with albert on base. THAT is what holliday brings to this team. He is a hitter more than a power hitter, something that a potential acquistion such as Dunn can’t provide.

By: Wil Turner

Wil Turner — Fri, 24 Jul 2009 17:22:01 +0000

Ok. Well, doesn’t matter now. I would say though that both of those are speculation based on information gained from the internet. Unless you are a scout (which I mean seriously, not sarcastically)?

Either way, let’s hope the season gets better from here on out. Please, please, please don’t let this end up like the Mulder deal, where we got very, very little in exchange for several players.

You have to hand it to Beane. He trades very, very well.

By: Snayke

Snayke — Fri, 24 Jul 2009 15:31:55 +0000

It’s not speculation when there’s not a single scout that says he can play major league third base.

It’s speculation to say that the Cardinals can’t afford Holliday and Pujols.

By: Wil Turner

Wil Turner — Fri, 24 Jul 2009 15:28:49 +0000

“Brett Wallace isn’t playing third base for any major league team in baseball, so if he’s with the Cardinals, he goes to left field and they plug someone from Triple A into the spot anyway.”

Really? Like Mark DeRosa? That seems like speculation to me. Also, even if it is true, and this is just a 1 for 1 swap, which it isn’t likely to be, shouldn’t we at least *try* Wallace in the majors to see if he can hit? Because then rather than Holliday in LF we have Wallace, for many years (including the next few with Pujols) rather than very little in 2010. We can’t do this every year because we don’t have any chips if we do. That means next year we’re going to have a similarly mediocre offense and no top prospects (though draft picks…).

By: Wil Turner

Wil Turner — Fri, 24 Jul 2009 15:23:22 +0000

Holliday’s numbers, because people keep referencing single stats:

2006: 155 G, 119 R, 45 2b, 34 HR, 114 RBI, .326, .387 OBP, .586 SLG, .973 OPS, 137 OPS+
2007: 158 G, 120 R, 50 2b, 36 HR, 137 RBI, .340, .405 OPB, .607 SLG, 1.012 OPS, 150 OPS+
2008: 139 G, 107 R, 38 2b, 25 HR, 88 RBI, .321, .409 OPB, .538 SLG, .947 OPS, 140 OPS+
2009: 93 G, 52 R, 23 2b, 11 HR, 54 RBI, .286, .378 OBP, .454 SLG, .832 OPS, 125 OPS+

Now, clearly, the season is not over, and more than likely he will be traded to someone, because that is why Beane acquired him from the Rockies in the first place. Also, Scott Boras is his agent and will milk his Colorado years for a contract & years.

Holliday is 29. Looking at those numbers it becomes clear that not only is he not the hitter at 29 in Oakland that he was at 27 in Colorado, he is also not the hitter he was at 26 in Colorado. In fact, while his OBP has continued to rise, his current slugging percentage is the lowest ever for his career, and his OPS also.

The more I consider this the less I am bothered by it. Holliday is very good, and we need an offensive upgrade over Duncan & Ankiel, certainly. I would be much more inclined to let Wallace get a shot later in the season at 3b/LF, but that’s just me. We have the pitching we want (Wainwright/Carp) for the playoffs, we got DeRosa, Rasmus is up to stay, maybe we should try for it.

But Holliday is not the hitter he was for the Rockies. And he will not be easy to re-sing, nor do I expect him to. And Beane has a history of fleecing our organization.

To me, those are serious negatives. But not as deal-breaker as I thought.

By: Snayke

Snayke — Fri, 24 Jul 2009 15:05:44 +0000

Veteran: Why would the Cardinals need to go find a third baseman when they could plug somebody from Triple A into the spot? Brett Wallace isn’t playing third base for any major league team in baseball, so if he’s with the Cardinals, he goes to left field and they plug someone from Triple A into the spot anyway.

By: Snayke

Snayke — Fri, 24 Jul 2009 14:59:07 +0000

“a) Holliday is the same hitter he was in Colorado. He is not.”

…except that he is.

“b) The Cardinals could re-sign him and somehow still have money for Albert. They could not.”

And why couldn’t they? They gave $192 million to Scott Rolen and Albert Pujols about 15 or 16 months apart.

By: Crafty Veteran

Crafty Veteran — Fri, 24 Jul 2009 14:40:00 +0000

Here is where I don’t see the money add up. If we trade Wallace, we need a third baseman. To get a serviceable one on top of signing Pujols to the monster money he will demand as well as the monster money it will take to retain Holliday (a Boras client don’t forget) and your new third baseman? We will also need to buck up for pitching. I don’t see how the budget works on top of the fact that deep down I don’t like trading six years of a cost controlled hitting machine for two months of declining “protection”.

By: Paper Lions

Paper Lions — Fri, 24 Jul 2009 13:37:15 +0000

Is Holliday the difference between this team winning the WS or not? I don’t see it. 2006 was awesome, but you can’t count on winning the WS every time you are the worst team in the playoffs. The playoffs are a crap shoot. If the Cardinals make it in, they will have a slightly less than 1 in 8 chance of winning the WS (probably less than 1 in 10). Is that really worth giving up several years of cheap (potential) production that could help the Cards get into the playoffs many times?

Selling the future for a small upgrade to a mediocre team is simply not a good decision.

By: erik

erik — Fri, 24 Jul 2009 13:12:39 +0000

Their 2009 annual goes over it in greater details. Sorry. I’ve went over it again and again at Beyond the Boxscore when I went over the farm system values for each division.

Sorry to pull a BP and tell you to just take my word for it, but just take my word for it.