The Matt Holliday Trade More Soberly Analyzed
Posted on July 24th, 2009 by erik in Brett Wallace, tags: Clayton Mortensen, Matt Holliday Trade, Shane PetersonHPGF fanboy characterized above.
{Azruavatar update:
What a topic. We’ll make sure and have a new thread on this again tomorrow. There’s a lot of secondary information that can be derived from this trade . . . and I mean a lot.
FWIW, I’m not nearly as negative about this trade as most.}
Quick hits, sorry for being redundant, I just don’t want anyone to think I totally am vehemently saying this is the worst trade ever:
- Brett Wallace is not a sure thing. But he is at least a top 50 prospect and that has a lot of value. My feeling is, defensive limitations at 3B aside, he would have been at least an average player for the Cardinals, which means he would have been worth 2 WAR a year, worth around 8-9 million bucks on the free agent market. For a cost-controlled player, that is valuable. Maybe he doesn’t meet that reasonable expectation, stranger things have happened.
- With that in mind, Wallace’s value may never have been higher than it was before the trade was made. But to give up Wallace and Mortensen and Peterson for 2-months of Matt Holliday is a very steep price to pay.
- Holliday had better mean playoffs. But that is no slam dunk. If all goes to plan, Holliday means an extra couple of wins. That might mean the difference between staving off the Cubs and Brewers, it may not. Even if STL makes the playoffs, Philly and LA will be tough to beat.
- IF this means they resign Holliday, groovy, as long as it’s not too cost-prohibitive. There again is that word if.
- IF Holliday is simply offered arbitration and declines, the Cardinals get two high draft picks, including a first rounder. That’s good, but for every Colby or Wallace, there has been Ottavinos and Kozmas. Nothing against those two, but they are C prospects and not really valuable commodities. That actually is par for the course, which is why a top 100 prospect is worth more than draft pick compensation. It’s the whole proverbial bird in the hand…
- If they don’t bring back Holliday/biff the draft next year, then this will hurt, flag or no flag. I’m sorry, but I remember fans on ledges in 2007 when they missed the playoffs, a year after they own the World Series. You can build to win now and in the future, you don’t have to choose.
- While I don’t think Mortensen or Peterson will be anything really super special, I’m bummed about Morty leaving. He had that sinker and some upside. Cost-controlled back-end starters have their value, even if that’s all you felt his upside was. Peterson never really did much for me, even though he was hitting pretty well this season. I do have this odd sensation he’ll surprise us all.
- The farm system will probably be in the bottom 20′s after enjoying being a top ten system for a while. If they don’t sign Shelby Miller, the farm system will look really bad. Which, sort of selfishly thinking, makes this site less fun for all of us until draft day. They had better sign Shelby Miller, but even if they do, he’s still a big risk. I’ve heard 4th OF too often thrown around when discussing DJ Tools. I’ve heard some good comparisons too. (Desmond Jennings) Descalso is nice. Todd is nice. Lynn is OK. Getting Garcia healthy again is good. But no “impact” player in the system right now, really, other than Wagner Mateo, who is like a decade away and a huge risk as it is.
- Not a real fan of Mo right now at all, but I admire his guts. I just hope this wasn’t some sort of peace offering for trading the pitching coaches’ son. Not sayin’, just sayin’. Eh, probably not. Just musing.
For more of my take, see this post at BtB and FanGraphs.
Speaking of which, I thought now would be a good time for addressing some questions that you may have thought and didn’t want to ask After pulling a Brett Favre on blogging, I’ve joined FanGraphs because it’s paid gig. Nothing huge, but for blogging, it’s nice. I’m a self-employed contractor and have been looking for a job with a company for a while, about since my wife found out she was pregnant. I would like to write for a living (who wouldn’t?) but few people get that privilege. So when I’m asked to do get paid for something I like doing, and for a blog with good exposure and that pays, well, why not?
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Erik:
I agree 100% with your analysis.
Now, in spite of the way I feel about the trade in the big picture, I would like to say that I am excited to see the offense improve the rest of the season. The deal is done, like it or not, and I am looking forward to seeing Holliday in Cardinal red, for however long it lasts.
Wait…they don’t pay us for this?
But seriously, I know the names won’t be around to ogle anymore and the system will drop into the 20s, but the fun will still be there as we’ll still get to track the next DJ Tools, the next breakout descalso star and still try to get someone normal sized to take a picture next to Lance Lynn or tracking Mateo and Miller.
Our salad days are over, but there is always fun finding the next Wallace, Mort and Peterson.
I didn’t mean to get so “movie monologue” with that, sorry.
But, that’s the great thing about the minor leagues, its always about finding that “next” guy. There will always be more guys coming along vying to be the next apple in our eye.
so, like the soup nazi i’ll say…
NEXT?!
I love Holliday, but I can’t believe it took that much more than Wallace. I initially thought giving up Wallace would be too much for him. I’m conflicted on the trade, though. If the Cardinals make the World Series because of an improved offense, it’ll be very nice.
This is where Lunnow (sp) gets to earn his money.He did a really fine job at building the minors and now that the Cards just traded away may top rated guys in the last month. Jeff has to re stock the shelves. And not get pissy over it just know that its part of the business. Signing Miller is a must in my book. And we will just have to wait and see what happens in the future with Holliday…But i do think it was a steep price to pay for a possible rental!!
Agreed on Miller – they have to sign him. Also, I would be curious to hear how Luhnow is feeling today. Must be a tough thing to watch for him personally
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While it is certainly a plus move for the major league team for the rest of this season, we are getting a good, not great player. Holliday is only on pace for 19 hrs and it looks like a good portion of his value is still coming from Coors field. We certainly over paid for him and a fiscally conservative team like the Cardinals can not afford to over pay very often. While I certainly hope it works, if the Phillies get Halliday (the player this trade should have been for) we probably anted up for nothing.
Well we cant keep all our prospects..I just hope we dont only get 2 months of holliday and then nothing..If thats the case then it will suck!! However if Holliday does stick around it could mean doom for some OF prospects. With Holliday-Rasmus-Ludwick as everyday guys.there wont be much room for other top OF prospects to play.unless some of them coudl be solid bench guys….
Question for the pros here! is Craig the next top 3B prospect we got?? thats still one hole the Cards have.
While I disagreed with the huge value disparity of your initial analysis, I think this is spot on. I consider this to be a bad trade but I’m not as bummed as some because I never really believed that Wallace would end up in StL, anyway. It would have been more palatable if it was simply Wallace for Holliday, though, rather than the FO seemingly throwing in Mortensen as well.
Oh well. As the saying goes, “you win some and you lose some.” It sucks to lose (presumably) to Beane again but we will all get over it. And think about how much fun we will all have with the draft next year. Compensation picks for Holliday, DeRosa, Pineiro…wow.
We will only get comp picks if we offer Abbertration to them and they turn it down. this isnt the NFL where just cause you lose someone means you get a pick.
So…if we offer him arbitration and he declines it and signs to a team that has a top 15 pick or a team that signs multiple type A free agents we get screwed? How does that work? Didn’t this happen with the brewers and sabathia last year because the yankees signed multiple type A free agents.
I know it’s not likely to happen but worse case scenario is to lose the prospects, holliday and only get supplimental picks.
I am not a big fan of this trade, I liked all three players the Cardinals gave up, and Holliday’s performance this season concerns me. That said, I am excited to see the impact he will have on this season’s lineup…the upgrade from Ankiel/Duncan to Holliday should be significant.
I truly believe that the Cardinals made this deal planning to keep Holliday around past 2009. The Cardinals have a TON of contracts coming off the books after this season, and should be in a position to spend some money. I expect Holliday will be priority #1, and my guess is that he will be playing next to Colby Rasmus for a long time.
Barring injuries, they will offer arb to both Holliday and DeRo. Great if they come back on one-year deals, OK if they leave and the Cards get the picks
My biggest question has to be the rotation, and if Holliday is resigned, how will it be addressed beyond Carp/Waino/Lohse. Hopefully Walters/Todd (if he isn’t the PTBNL for DeRosa)/Boggs/Hawksworth can take one or more of those spots, but that could be a problem. Maybe resign Piniero, but he just had a career year. I don’t know.
I hope Mazeliak has a commitment from ownership to a) offer Holliday arbirtration after the season an b) to increase the salary ceiling for the team
so that a real effort can be made to resign Holliday. If he does not have a, he should be immediately fired. If he does not also have b, I am unhappy but can
understand the deal
Hey, I’m watching the Cards/Phils game … we traded for Matt Holliday? /sarcasm
Sigh.
That’s all I really got.
And Erik, I think what you did is actually closer to a Dick Vermeil than a Brett Favre, technically.
Dunno if it has been talked about yet or not but some more 3B news is that David Freese is now on the Springfield roster. He had played 3 games in the GCL going 4-10 with a double and HR. So a little good news at the 3B position, sure will miss Wallace though.
The good news is that we can start talking about Colby in FR again since Ankiel will now be the starter in CF.
Rasmus can return to Memphis where he can play every day and get more seasoning. Anyone who thinks he should be up in St. Louis is not really rooting for him anyway. They are just wanting him to fail. ~TLR
Can we get a “The Walrus” jersey shirt in green and yellow please? ;-)
I’m over my disappointment, Wallace is a fat-bottomed pansy that will never amount to anything (okay, not really).
Go Cards! Eh, maybe later, my hearts just not into it yet….probably because (as predicted) Ankiel is starting tonight…yeah, there’s a good idea, when you can get less offensive production, worse defense, and retard the development of a young player all in one fell swoop….man, you’ve gotta do it, because how often are you going to have that chance?
I hate this trade….
AZ, are you going to the Springfield game on Saturday too or is this a one night visit to Hammons Field?
Saturday – Section K, Row 4, Seat 7 (Right behind the visitors dugout)
Sunday – Same, Same, Seat 12
I’ve had people call me A Z or azruavatar and I actually respond reflexively. My given name is Tim however.
Sorry, but I thought of the wizard on The Search for the Holy Grail when you let the cat out of the bag there. “My name is…Tim”
Oh, I am a dork. Ni!
That is a good reference actually. And Monty Python =/= dork. That movie is hilarious.
Mo’s choice:
1. Sit back and do nothing while the offense sputters and the big club pisses away great pitching and very winnable games (See the sweep by Houston)
2. Trade a good prospect to get a hammer bat for a run at the WS this year.
I like what he did. I hate losing Wallace. But I do think the system has had a year to seriously evaluate Wallace defensively at 3B for the long term and that has played in willingness to deal him. They have Freese recovering and should be viable next year. Longer term De La Rosa is on the depth chart and still TBD.
Mortensen was interesting prospect but his loss is recoverable. Heck they pulled Pineiro off the heap and he is doing everything you’d hope Morty could do and doing it now. Peterson’s future was as 4th-5th OF’er on this team.
Step away from the ledge, come inside and watch the big club hit. The lineup is looking MV3-ish now.
First, Erik, congrats on the gig.
I’m not big on this trade at all either, but there is no denying this team is in position to win this year. It also is, in theory, a good time to make a push when you look around the division. We would have been very much in the wrong to make a move last year, because the Cubs were making their last run at it and we could not close the gap and the Brewers took their shot with the big Sabathia move and that was going to be tough to close too. That was last year, but this year making the closing effort makes much more sense. If Wallace can’t play 3rd, and all the signals suggested the org was very unsure, then he was going to need to get moved soon.
Still, Wallace has a ton of value for many teams that aren’t locked in at 1st. I just can’t believe we had to give this much for 2 months of Holliday. There is almost no doubt that the A’s win on the deal long term. It’s all about this year for us.
I look at the Sabathia deal as a comp. I think we should have been able to do a little better than they did because of the questions about Holliday away from Coors are still out there. Not saying he isn’t a very good player, but this is relative to Sabathia. The market has also changed in one year. With this economy, your cost controlled’s should be in higher demand. I think our supplemental pieces were a little stronger than Mil’s – at least Mort.
I just think we could have held out for better on this. This years team should be fun to watch the rest of the way. I only see one way that people can look at this 3+ years down the road and thinks we won, or held our own, on this deal.
Neither one of these guys is sui generis. There will be other “best pure hitters” in the draft. There will be many, many more stories of kids who are just now entering their sophomore year in high school and who no one has ever heard of. They will come and replenish what has been lost. That’s the whole nature of this business, right? Hatch ‘em, grow ‘em, kick ‘em out of the nest. Some fly far from home, others stay nearby.
Actually, I think the “nature of this business” is hatch ‘em, grow ‘em, promote ‘em, win with ‘em for years.
Thank goodness Pujols came out of nowhere and made the Cardinals out of spring training with Bonilla being hurt….it would be painful to watch him all these years after Jocketty traded him for a 2 month rental of a mediocre starter.
it’s both hatch ‘em play ‘em and hatch ‘em trade ‘em. good teams usually do a bit of both. Mo on the other hand seems to be more trade ‘em than jocketty so far.
“Mo on the other hand seems to be more trade ‘em than jocketty so far.”
C’mon — that’s not accurate. Rasmus, Ryan, Motte, etc. He didn’t acquire a veteran closer this offseason did he? They stuck with the kids there. They’ve used Brendan Ryan rather than immediately going after someone like Lugo once Greene was hurt. They planned on using Freese on 3rd after Glaus was hurt.
Mozeliak isn’t completely selling the system and the system is being restocked in a way it never was under Jocketty.
You have Albert Pujols in his prime right now! Would you waste the 2+ years it will take for Wallace to find his feet?
World Series victories are rare and magical. As is a player like Pujols. You have a chance to win now. You go for it and not fritter away the prime years of the best player in Cardinal history.
I say empty the rest of the farm system for Roy Halladay. Go All-In. Let Lunhow build it back up over the next 3 years. The time is now. Seize the Day!
I hate these prospects-for-rental trades, but if there is *any* time it’s a good idea it’s when a team has close to a 50% chance of reaching the playoffs. That’s exactly where the Cardinals at the all-star break. So I think it’s unfair to call Mo a “trade em” type of GM, particularly when he has pushed Rasmus, Motte, etc. on LaRussa.
Clearly Wallace was going to be at the center of this trade. I can deal with that given that he’s more of an AL player anyway, but the secondary prospects seem like a steep price to pay.
Mortensen isn’t going to be a star, but I think he’s a safe bet to be a major league starter. There is value there. And I’ve stated in the past that I think we’ve all been underrating Peterson for a while now. We love DJ Tools, but Peterson is allegedly a pretty good runner/fielder, has hit better than Jones this year, and is younger than Jones. We should have loved him just as much as Jones in my opinion.
Oh well. It certainly will be fun to watch this pennant run over the next two months.
Can’t see why Luhnow would be upset, I am sure he had plenty of input in who goes and who stays in trades. His job is to look for the best possibilities at the cheapest price, whether they are long term franchise prospects or trade bait. I agree with RedC the nature of the business is to hatch em, grow em and then let most of them fly away. If it wasn’t so, you wouldn’t see 29 other teams at games scouting your prospects. This what you want to do, have them come look at yours, not you go look at theirs.
I don’t think for one moment that Wallace was ever drafted to play in STL, I think he (Wallace) knew that too.
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