Jess Todd is the PTBNL in DeRosa Trade
Posted on July 26th, 2009 by erik in Jess Todd, tags: Mark DeRosa TradeAs Joe Strauss so aptly twittered, it’s been a brutal week for the HPGF. (Hyperventilating Prospect Geek Fraternity). That’s now four of last year’s top ten prospects that have gone to other teams. Mozeliak has razed the system in hopes of fending off Chicago and Milwaukee (and I guess Houston). But considering how crummy the bullpen has looked as of late, this hurts, not just for the future, but now. After seeing the ‘pen recently get torched, Todd probably would have been the next one up.
Let’s do the whole surplus value thing.
Chris Perez was a top 76-100 pitcher last year, meaning his surplus value is $8.7M. Jess Todd was given a B grade by John Sickels. B grade pitchers historically have averaged $6.5 million in value. That’s a total of $15.2 million of assets headed to Cleveland for a few months of DeRo. After some hand wringing about his wrist, he seems fine, hitting 4 homers over the last few days. DeRosa is worth about a win over the rest of the season, and about a 7% increase in playoff expectancy. Figuring his salary ($2.3M), what he adds in terms of wins ($4.5M), and Type B free agent compensation ($2.5) and the help he adds in possibly reaching the playoffs….
$15 M to CLE, $7M to STL. More paying out of the wha-zoo for rentals.
That said, Perez has that spotty control and may never pan out. He has been nails in low leverage situations since getting a rudely greeting to the AL. I have this weird thing with Todd. Having seen him pitch, I was less than impressed, but it’s really hard to argue with the results. He might end up being better than Perez when it’s all said and done, as he has pitchability and control that Perez definitely doesn’t have yet.
My poor faberge eggs. Win, Cardinals, win.
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Let’s not forget about losing Worrell, Perdomo and Gregerson, too. Worrell has been hurt, but Perdomo has pitched well of late other than his last outing and Gregerson has been very good pretty much all year for SD. With Samuel and Reifer having down years, our surplus of RH relief prospects suddenly looks fairly grim. Thank god for Sanchez’s breakout.
http://redbirdroost.com/2009/07/26/todd-goes-to-cleveland-to-complete-derosa-trade/
Yikes, so much for the story I was writing about DeRosa…
Cleveland was going to take another solid prospect, so it is finally time to echo erik when I introduce the credo of Win Now, Worry Later.
Right now all I want to hear about minor league RH pitchers begins and ends with Shelby Miller.
We touched on this in another thread but MEM must be depleted after losing Mort to OAK and Todd to CLE and the Hawk to the big club: promotions for hearne, lynn, sanchez?
I hate to see Todd go but I’m very happy Eduardo Sanchez is still in the organization.
I’m just happy the Cardinals are getting good players in return for these prospects. Mark DeRosa is a great major leaguer that can play many positions, drive in runs and probably won’t break the bank when he signs an extension.
Matt Holliday is a young, tremendous middle of the order presence and you have seen the past three games what he can do when surrounded by real hitters and not Jack Cust and Jason Giambi. We need to get him signed before he finishes the year hitting .315 with an .880 OPS or so.
I still wish we would have given up Motte over Perez if it were ever up to the Cardinals. Motte just isn’t that good.
As a prospect geek, I’m rooting for Ankiel to have a monster 2nd half and regain his Type B status. We’d likely offer arbitration, Boras would likely want Rick to go to free agency and we’d get a new fabrege egg.
This has been a really frustrating week for those of us who have a more long term approach to evaluating the club.
Just for the record Mo’s trades have netted us,
6 years of David Freese
2 years of Troy Glaus
1 year Khalil Greene
3 or so months of Mark Derosa
2 Months of Matt Holliday
1 year plus of Julio Lugo
To aquire all that talent we’ve given up
1 year of Jim Edmonds
4 years of anthony Reyes
4 years of Scott Rolen
6 years of Mark Worrell
6 years of Luke Gregorson
6 years of Chris Perez
6 years of jess Todd
6 years of Brett Wallace
6 years of Clayton Morteson
6 years of Shane Peterson
3 Years of Chris Duncan
Just trying to be completely objective about the moves made. This is all from memory, maybe I forgot some. I really can’t help but think the cardinals are in very poor hands.
I actually think Ankiel will resign with the Cardinals, he knows no other team would have stuck with him like they have. Plus I’m pretty sure Tony wants him around in case Holliday can’t be resigned.
Dave what hes done in my opinion is give the Cards there first legit shot at a Championship since 05. That is what’s going to keep Albert around not 6 years of cost controlled years with the possibility that the Cardinals are a 3 or 4th place team. This last few weeks has show the FO’s commitment to winning that Albert had started to question.
well this sucks
I know it was a surprise, but we must have had a legit shot at winning in 06….because we did.
I’m not going to regurgitate the numbers as if they’re my own, but the playoff percentage odds aren’t much higher than they were before all the trades. In addition its pretty well known that playoff odds are barely changed by the roster you bring into the post season, it’s simply too small a sample size. In addition to that there’s an opportunity cost lost this year in addition to the future.
Gregorson has a 2.91 FIP and a 10.34 K/9, Perez has a 4.41 FIP and a 11.03 K/9, peredomo has a 4.66 with a 7.36k/9 In the bigs THIS year.
That might not sound very impressive until you realize that we’ve been throwing out Kinney(6.95 5.11k/9) Thompson(4.99 3.3 k/9) and Motte(5.25 7.68 k/9)not to mention a very lucky Franklin, which has a very real possibility of falling off a cliff at any give point
That doesn’t even bring up any of the guys with good mle’s like Todd.
Really though that’s not even my point, what I’m saying is he;s being flat out exploited by other gms in baseball.
just inter-changing the big leaguers named above you would gain over one WAR via fangraphs up to this point in the season, and that disparity will only grow larger as time goes on.
Ankiel actually is a type B right now, according to eddie bajek, and could theoretically become a Type A with a huge second half. It’ll probably take 15 HR over the next 2 months, which is a lot, but doable.
Remember, ELIAS stats are based on stone-age metrics, and being on the DL last year helped him a lot. he had the equivalent of a 40ish HR season with DL time factored, for the way the ratings work.
Giving Todd away upsets me more than almost anything else that has happened this year, including more than seeing walters get lit up and seeing duncan prove himself not to be as good as i thought he’d become. Only Mather’s injury upset me more.
I guess we know why they used high picks on Joe Kelly and Scott Bittle.
This type of thing just make Luhnows job that more important…
Does Todd’s stuff really play out in the majors? The handful times I have seen him pitch he tops out at 92, his sliders good, but doesn’t seem like hes got a devastating one like Mariano Rivera or something.
Seems like PJ Walters stuff, good in the minors but doesn’t translate to major league success
what are the chances of getting a revised top 10 list???
Casey Mulligan has to be in the top 5 RH relievers in the orginzation right now.
1. Sanchez
2. Reifer
3. Samuel
4. Kelly
5. Bittle
Mulligan is more the PJ Walters of relievers than Todd, as btwit mentioned. I like him, but he’s getting by on guile right now, not really stuff, from what I’ve heard.
If Holliday and DeRosa are signed long term then we have at least two years to rebuild the depth in the Minors.
Other than 3B our every day lineup would be set through at least 2011 and I just don’t see any of the players we traded as must have, can’t miss, grade A+ prospects who would have contributed in St. Louis any time soon. Again, I’m projecting us signing Holliday and DeRosa which is no different than any of us projecting just how good a prospect may or may not be in the future.
As for the pitchers, Todd and Perez would at best be setup men for at least the next few years as long as TLR is managing. No way he goes to any young unproven players in the closing role, so IMO bullpen pitchers are a dime a dozen and easily replaceable.
I also think Mortensen is no different than six or eight starting pitchers we already have in the system. Back end rotation guys who may or may not be able to eat up 180+ innings a year. I think truly believe they are interchangeable and my guess is maybe one or two ever pan out into quality big league starters. So there really is no risk pawning one off when we still have seven more to choose from.
I’m a firm believer that when a team has a chance to win it all that “A bird in the hand is worth two in the bush.”
I fail to see why Mo is being exploited by other GMs because he gave up some prospects for two great major league hitters.
The owner is willing to spend money and Mo just turned potential into actuality. If DeWitt does get Holliday and DeRosa re-signed, Mo will have built a great contender for at least 2 more years after this one.
And likely 2 or 3 of the 5 prospects we gave up will not become quality major leaguers. My guess is Todd and Mortensen don’t have the stuff and burn out.
we might as well wait until after august 31 before revising any lists…
Given your surplus value calculations, it appears that it is impossible to acquire a “rental” and come out ahead. Is the market hopelessly skewed or is your valuation wrong? If you were a GM, would you never acquire a player a year or two away from free agency if you came out on the short end of your calculation?
you can’t get dogmatic about it, I’m not advocating that. you’re gonna give up more to get present value because you have more to gain. What is bugging me is when Mo is giving up 2 x’s value in what he’s getting in return.
A playoff appearance is worth $25M, according to Jonah Keri. I’ve factored in the increase in probability of reaching the playoffs. 1 WAR is 7%. I got this from vivaelpujols at VEB and BtB.
Seems sound to me, but maybe that’s not the best way to do it, any suggestions, anyone?
Ironic that this happens on the day we fall out of first place…
The Cardinals at the start of the season were in the top third of major league teams
in the quality of their minor league prospects. Now they rank among the two or three
worst teams on quality. They have traded away any hope of improvement from
a minor league additon for at least two and probably three years.
The trades only make any sense if DeWitt has increased the Cardinal salary
ceiling by 15-20 million for 2010.
Todd, 2006 was a strange year because the team wasn’t good at all in the second half and just got really hot at the right time. To all those who say our statistical change of winning hasnt changed at all. I disagree you can throw all the stats of the situation but watching the do you really think this team would have done anything but finish 3rd in the division? We went from overachieving team with 4th place talent to a very talented team that is expected to win in just over a week. No matter what the “stats” say just look at the team and tell me you don’t think they have a better chance now. This week has picked up the enthusiam of everyone. Personally I was on the fence about the Holliday trade but seeing how the team is reacting differently now I’m fully for it.
@guayzimi,
The value of prospects is calculated from the estimation of their contributions minus their expected salaries of 6 cost-controlled years, which are usually all in the future. However, the value of a rental player is all being realized in this year, except the draft picks.
You trade future value for present value, so you should give up more than you receive.
Following up on guayzimi’s comment, does the renting team always give up 150% – 200% in value? Has anyone tracked this historically?
that would be well worth looking into.
Wow! I was expecting it but geez it hurts. It hurts almost as much this year as I watch Motte, Kinney, et. al. get hammered as it does for the future. I believe that Perez was the second best prospect after Ras. and Todd was about #5. That makes this a much worse trade than the Holliday deal. The last two games against the Phils doesn’t help much. The guys we got are hitting and we’re still getting killed parlty because we dont have a bull pen. IMO the bullpen situation will worsen as we move on. We will just have to see what transpires over the season and the off season but right now this looks like Jockety redux. The current situation may increase the pressure to sign Miller, Derosa and Holliday so maybe it will work out. At this point I’m not pleased.
I quickly looked over the CC Sabathia trade last year.
The Brewers traded Matt LaPorta, Rob Bryson, Zach Jackson, and Michael Brantley for a half season of CC.
I have no idea where I can find CC’s expected contribution at the trade moment; he was a 3.1 WAR player for the Indians by then, and 4.7 WAR for the Brewers after the trade. Let’s assume the Brewers expected 4 WAR from CC. A 4 WAR performance is worth $18M. With his salary($5.5M), Type A arby status($5M) and the increase of playoff probabilities($8M), the expected value for the Brewers was worth $25.5M from this trade.
Then there goes the prospects sent to the Indians:
Matt LaPorta was a TOP 10 hitter – #7 prospect on the midseason BA list. ($36.5M)
Rob Bryson was a 20yrs old Grade C pitcher. ($2.1M)
Zach Jackson was a 25yrs old Grade C pitcher. ($1.5M)
Michael Brantley was a 21yrs old Grade C+ hittter. ($0.7M)
They were worth $40.8M combined. That’s exactly 160% of the value of the brewers got. Please correct me if I’m wrong.
As we all know, CC pitched extremely well after the trade. He was a 4.7 WAR player for them, worth $21.2M. And he DID carry them to the playoffs. In retrospect, I think it was a good move for the Brewers, even though they failed to advance to NLCS.
They have traded away any hope of improvement from
a minor league additon for at least two and probably three years.
The trades only make any sense if DeWitt has increased the Cardinal salary
ceiling by 15-20 million for 2010.
This is a complete overreaction. Jaime Garcia, for one, will likely join the rotation next spring. Joe Mather, for another, will likely be at least a bench player, perhaps even the starting third baseman. Lance Lynn could very well see time in St. Louis next summer. I don’t know if Sanchez will be ready, but Samuel could also be an addition. Then there’s Descalso and Jones, each with a potential ETA of spring 2011, etc., etc.
I haven’t seen the table recently, but the vast majority of prospects do not ever play in the majors. Just look at Bryan Anderson, who has gone from Top 10 Faberge to Rotten Egg in under two years. There are lots of fish in the sea and so long as Luhnow is doing the drafting and DeWitt is writing checks for the upper round bonuses the system will be fine.
In the meantime, I will try to enjoy the next two years despite the daily wailing on this board and VEB about how the cupboard is now bare and the franchise is doomed.
i think when Mo didn’t make the trade last year for a relief pitcher this is why he didn’t do it. with pressure from larussa, the media, and the st. louis faithful i don’t think he was going to be allowed to do that again this year. as much as i don’t like these trades i think Mo’s job would actually be in more jeopardy if he didn’t make these trades. its shameful to say but i think that’s the state of things. i guess that’s the world he chose being jocketty’s successor and tony’s gm.
@FreeRedbird My understanding is that a discount rate has been applied to the valuation of the prospects. I could be wrong about this. I wish I had time to read all the research carefully. It seems amazing to me these prospects could be worth so much given their bust potential.
this figures everyone, the busts and the players who go on to be stars.
I have stated this before, I think a lot of posters on this board would be ok with the Cards finishing in 3rd place as long as we have a top 10 farm system.
I think we paid a really REALLY steep price to get DeRosa and Holliday. But we have a team that has a legit chance to win it all. If DeWitt doesn’t resign these guys or sign someone else big time in the offseason then Pujols will walk. DeWitt won’t let that happen. I think we will see these guys back next year. They will win in St Louis and fall in love with St Louis.
With nearly $34 million coming off the books (unless they resign Pineiro), there’s enough dough to bring back both DeRosa & Holliday without raising payroll a nickel–as long as their combined 2010 salaries total $24MM or less.
Moreover, if Holliday & DeRo really like playing for the Cards, and sign slightly back-loaded deals, I’d say they could even keep Pineiro, add a veteran reliever, and only bump payroll to the $92-94MM range…which is perfectly do-able for a team drawing 3.3 million fans, with all the luxury suites sold out through at least 2015 (according to the Cards).
This hurts. There is no silver lining here. I am much more disappointed in the talent we sacrificed in this trade than the other. The best case scenario is a WS victory and DeRosa re-signed. We need him to play his way to type A status (he is on the brink). If we can get a championship and 2 1st rounders out of Mark DeRosa, its a darn good deal. If we rent him for a playoff run and we get only a sandwich pick, this stings big time.
I liked todd, but i thinke he was nothing more than a middle reliever in the bigs…maybe i am underestimating him, but his fastball just didn’t seem to be good enough the two times i saw him him memphis, and the time he came up and pitched for STL…it had pretty good movement, so getting AAA hitters wasn’t hard, but i feel like good major leaguers would figure him out sooner rather than later and tee off…still we gave up a ton for DeRosa, we better make it to the playoffs and make some noise when we get there