Comments on: Jess Todd is the PTBNL in DeRosa Trade

By: VolsnCards5

VolsnCards5 — Mon, 27 Jul 2009 13:37:00 +0000

I liked todd, but i thinke he was nothing more than a middle reliever in the bigs…maybe i am underestimating him, but his fastball just didn’t seem to be good enough the two times i saw him him memphis, and the time he came up and pitched for STL…it had pretty good movement, so getting AAA hitters wasn’t hard, but i feel like good major leaguers would figure him out sooner rather than later and tee off…still we gave up a ton for DeRosa, we better make it to the playoffs and make some noise when we get there

By: PJ

PJ — Mon, 27 Jul 2009 13:35:56 +0000

This hurts. There is no silver lining here. I am much more disappointed in the talent we sacrificed in this trade than the other. The best case scenario is a WS victory and DeRosa re-signed. We need him to play his way to type A status (he is on the brink). If we can get a championship and 2 1st rounders out of Mark DeRosa, its a darn good deal. If we rent him for a playoff run and we get only a sandwich pick, this stings big time.

By: Bob

Bob — Mon, 27 Jul 2009 13:32:34 +0000

With nearly $34 million coming off the books (unless they resign Pineiro), there’s enough dough to bring back both DeRosa & Holliday without raising payroll a nickel–as long as their combined 2010 salaries total $24MM or less.

Moreover, if Holliday & DeRo really like playing for the Cards, and sign slightly back-loaded deals, I’d say they could even keep Pineiro, add a veteran reliever, and only bump payroll to the $92-94MM range…which is perfectly do-able for a team drawing 3.3 million fans, with all the luxury suites sold out through at least 2015 (according to the Cards).

By: themop10

themop10 — Mon, 27 Jul 2009 12:22:46 +0000

I have stated this before, I think a lot of posters on this board would be ok with the Cards finishing in 3rd place as long as we have a top 10 farm system.

I think we paid a really REALLY steep price to get DeRosa and Holliday. But we have a team that has a legit chance to win it all. If DeWitt doesn’t resign these guys or sign someone else big time in the offseason then Pujols will walk. DeWitt won’t let that happen. I think we will see these guys back next year. They will win in St Louis and fall in love with St Louis.

By: erik

erik — Mon, 27 Jul 2009 12:19:49 +0000

this figures everyone, the busts and the players who go on to be stars.

By: guayzimi

guayzimi — Mon, 27 Jul 2009 12:03:50 +0000

@FreeRedbird My understanding is that a discount rate has been applied to the valuation of the prospects. I could be wrong about this. I wish I had time to read all the research carefully. It seems amazing to me these prospects could be worth so much given their bust potential.

By: Future Man

Future Man — Mon, 27 Jul 2009 06:36:58 +0000

i think when Mo didn’t make the trade last year for a relief pitcher this is why he didn’t do it. with pressure from larussa, the media, and the st. louis faithful i don’t think he was going to be allowed to do that again this year. as much as i don’t like these trades i think Mo’s job would actually be in more jeopardy if he didn’t make these trades. its shameful to say but i think that’s the state of things. i guess that’s the world he chose being jocketty’s successor and tony’s gm.

By: RedC

RedC — Mon, 27 Jul 2009 06:24:41 +0000

They have traded away any hope of improvement from
a minor league additon for at least two and probably three years.
The trades only make any sense if DeWitt has increased the Cardinal salary
ceiling by 15-20 million for 2010.

This is a complete overreaction. Jaime Garcia, for one, will likely join the rotation next spring. Joe Mather, for another, will likely be at least a bench player, perhaps even the starting third baseman. Lance Lynn could very well see time in St. Louis next summer. I don’t know if Sanchez will be ready, but Samuel could also be an addition. Then there’s Descalso and Jones, each with a potential ETA of spring 2011, etc., etc.

I haven’t seen the table recently, but the vast majority of prospects do not ever play in the majors. Just look at Bryan Anderson, who has gone from Top 10 Faberge to Rotten Egg in under two years. There are lots of fish in the sea and so long as Luhnow is doing the drafting and DeWitt is writing checks for the upper round bonuses the system will be fine.

In the meantime, I will try to enjoy the next two years despite the daily wailing on this board and VEB about how the cupboard is now bare and the franchise is doomed.

By: FreeRedbird

FreeRedbird — Mon, 27 Jul 2009 05:30:39 +0000

I quickly looked over the CC Sabathia trade last year.

The Brewers traded Matt LaPorta, Rob Bryson, Zach Jackson, and Michael Brantley for a half season of CC.

I have no idea where I can find CC’s expected contribution at the trade moment; he was a 3.1 WAR player for the Indians by then, and 4.7 WAR for the Brewers after the trade. Let’s assume the Brewers expected 4 WAR from CC. A 4 WAR performance is worth $18M. With his salary($5.5M), Type A arby status($5M) and the increase of playoff probabilities($8M), the expected value for the Brewers was worth $25.5M from this trade.

Then there goes the prospects sent to the Indians:
Matt LaPorta was a TOP 10 hitter – #7 prospect on the midseason BA list. ($36.5M)
Rob Bryson was a 20yrs old Grade C pitcher. ($2.1M)
Zach Jackson was a 25yrs old Grade C pitcher. ($1.5M)
Michael Brantley was a 21yrs old Grade C+ hittter. ($0.7M)

They were worth $40.8M combined. That’s exactly 160% of the value of the brewers got. Please correct me if I’m wrong.

As we all know, CC pitched extremely well after the trade. He was a 4.7 WAR player for them, worth $21.2M. And he DID carry them to the playoffs. In retrospect, I think it was a good move for the Brewers, even though they failed to advance to NLCS.

By: erik

erik — Mon, 27 Jul 2009 04:00:47 +0000

that would be well worth looking into.