I find myself in an odd juxtaposition with VEB as I continue to be somewhat optimistic about the trades that the Cardinals have made recently. (Shouldn’t the minor league site bemoan the losses of all our key writing material?) We’ve unquestionably put a serious dent in the farm system but the talent we’ve acquired isn’t marginal but impact and puts the Cardinals in a much better position to win the division. It’s going to be a rough week as the Cardinals make these trades and then run into the Phillies and Dodgers (the two best teams in the NL) but make no doubt, the major league club is better.
At the same time, I’ve given Mozeliak my address in which to cut the check because it’s time to come to the Cardinals defense yet again.
Holliday Trade:
- Brett Wallace – 2008 1st Round (13th overall pick)
- Clayton Mortensen – 2007 1st Round Supplemental
- Shane Peterson – 2008 2nd Round
DeRosa Trade:
- Chris Perez – 2006 1st Round Supplemental
- Jess Todd – 2007 2nd Round
Do you notice something there? The Cardinals acquired these players with prospects drafted in the last 2 years. There’s no Brandon Wood in these trades that has been in the minors seemingly forever (2003) or a Delmon Young (2003) for Matt Garza. The Cardinals aren’t hawking players it’s taken then 4-5 years to develop. They are turning over prospects that have been around for 1 or 2 years.
We’ve bemoaned the Cardinals somewhat conservative drafts while still lauding some of the individual players that they take. Credit Jeff Luhnow for taking an organization in the dregs of all the major league systems and turning it into something that can do this (without ever giving up their BEST prospect in Colby Rasmus) because it’s pretty impressive.
Where does this leave us going forward? Well, I can’t say yet. I’ve mentioned this previously but I don’t care for mid-season top prospect lists. It doesn’t do the effort required to create them right justice if we try it on the fly. If I move Descalso up the list only to watch him tank in AAA, do I then drop him in the offseason? So I’m not inclined to redo the list despite the fact that it’s been decimated. Let’s look at the 2009 list though:
- Colby Rasmus – St. Louis
- Brett Wallace – Oakland
- Chris Perez – Cleveland
- Bryan Anderson – Injured
- Daryl Jones – Injured
- Jason Motte – St. Louis
- David Freese – Springfield, Rehab
- Jaime Garcia – GCL, Rehab
- Jess Todd – Cleveland
- Mitchell Boggs – Memphis
- Pete Kozma – Springfield
- Allen Craig – Memphis
- Jon Jay – Memphis
- Clayton Mortensen – Oakland
- Niko Vasquez – Batavia
- Tyler Henley – Springfield
- Tyler Herron – Released
- Lance Lynn – Springfield
- Fernando Salas – Springfield, Rehab
- Adam Ottavino – Memphis
So of the top 20, we’re down to 13. Of those 13, 2 are inured (Anderson – shoulder, Jones – Right Leg) and 3 are essentially rehabing injuries still (Freese – heel, Garcia – Elbow, Salas – Finger). So you’re down to 8 players from the top 20 who are healthy. Of those 8, 5 have been relatively poor performers this year (Kozma, Craig, Jay, Vasquez, Ottavino) and the other 3 have been good but not astoundingly so (Boggs, Henley, Lynn).
We’ve seen some players emerge (Daniel Descalso, Eduardo Sanchez). You’ve also got some players from 2007 and 2008 that have been overshadowed: David Kopp (2007 2nd Round), Scott Gorgen (4th Round). There’s also a lot to like about the upside of the 2009 draft: Miller, Stock, Kelly, Bittle. Then you have to remember the splash that was Wagner Mateo and the $3.1M signing bonus.
The Cardinals have shown the ability to draft players and turn some of them around in a hurry to be top prospects. Jeff Luhnow deserves credit and he also deserves some faith moving forward. He’s revitalized the system once and he can do it again. The dismay that we’ve had over the last few years watching Albert Pujols best years possibly be squandered by subpar supporting casts isn’t an excuse that can be made this year.
Now, setting aside my positive PR spin for a moment, this isn’t the model that everyone wants. A lot of prospect watchers seem to want the Cardinals to become the new Rays where the system is constantly refilling the majors with cost controlled talent. It’s not a bad model but it takes a LONG time to get to that situation. You have to build depth and then you have to continually find impact players on the cheap. A better comparison for the Cardinals is that they become the new Braves. Save a few players from your farm to keep costs down but make trades for guys like Tim Hudson and Mark Texeira to surge your already fringe contender team into the playoffs. To butcher a poker analogy, it seems like the value already in the pot (major league clubs chance at a pennant) makes the cost to call (the prospects traded) worth the potential reward EVEN THOUGH you think there’s a chance your opponent has you beat. It’s a gamble but it’s not one that’s indefensible.
Once again, I think the best course of action is to enjoy the 2009 Cardinals, wait till the offseason to fret about resigning players (we simply don’t have the insight to know how that will or could go down with regards to payroll) and breathe a deep breath as we look to the future. The front office has placed a bet on the present with a hold on the future.
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Great write-up. Fully agree with you. Excellent points.
I curious–Does the draft look like it will be good and have any depth next year?
AZ, I have been on the fence about these trades. I think we gave up too much in both trades but I don’t dislike the philosophy. If we can mix the Colby Rasmus (fully developed in house) of the world with the Brett Wallaces (traded for top talent) and the Adam Wainwrights (received for top talent) then you can have a fully healthy and developed farm system. The problem comes in focusing only on one path. I like the trades except that I want the assurance that both players would be signed for next year (DeRosa’s surgery not withstanding). That is the huge draw about Halladay for me, having Doc signed for next year would make any trade for him easily more palatable.
In the end though if we don’t sign Miller our farm system will be crap next year compared to years past, we can’t ride the Colby Rasmus train anymore that has left the station and is on full steam (well maybe half steam with that heel of his).
Alan Craig on the underperforming list? A slash line of .286 .342 .466 should qualify as good if not great and he is slugging .708 in July! We need some love for Alan Craig. The Cards should release K. Greene and give the Memphis 3B job to Craig.
jjray, i agree with parting ways with K Greene, and I would love to see Allen Craig get his shot, but now you have curious who this Alan Craig is.
jjray – Craig’s year has been a disappointment thus far. He may have gotten hot lately but his slash lines aren’t up to last year’s standard. For a prospect, improvement is expected the second time around a specific level. Hopefully his year keeps getting better and he’ll shoot up next year’s rankings and competes for an MLB job. But we don’t know what the rest of the season holds, reinforcing az’s statement about the relative futility of mid-season rankings.
Anyone else hope the Cards let Holliday walk in the off-season? Keep the picks and have an open competition between Craig, Mather (remember him? That power would’ve come in handy this year.) and Jay. That would free up some $ for Adrian Beltre or a starter on a 1 or 2 year commitment.
Burt, I hope they resign Holliday and if he is healthy DeRosa too. The starter situation will need to be addressed but with Lugo signed for next year already those two would take care of your position players and would leave pitching as the only holes to fill. Carp is still signed (at least I beleive so, can’t get to Cots right now to verify but I thought he was signed through 2010), and so are Wainwright and Lohse, assuming Pineiro resigns that leaves us with only 1 starter slot to fill, if Boggs, Garcia or someone else in house fills that it wouldn’t be worse than this year otherwise a FA might fit there but I don’t expect expensive from them. In the bullpen Franklin has an option, Miller is already signed and KMac, Motte and Kinney are still under control so only one left (possibly Reyes) and one veteran set-up man would be needed. I don’t see too many holes next year that need to be filled besides signing Holliday and DeRosa to fill two positions we have been weakest at recently.
Best-case scenario, Holliday and DeRosa give us something like 3 wins in the final 60-odd games. If that’s enough to get us into the playoffs, we have three components of a team that could win it all:
* 2 top-of-the-rotation pitchers
* shut-down closer
* strong defense
Okay, 2 1/2 components, depending on how the infield shakes out. Holliday gives us a massive upgrade over Duncan in left, but it’s too early to predict how DeRosa and Lugo will affect infield defense. And who knows how LaRussa will juggle his outfield when Colby is back to full speed.
Worst-case scenario:
* no playoffs, or an early exit in the divisional series
* DeRosa and Holliday move on, leaving us nothing but draft picks
* Wallace, Todd, and/or Perez make us forget the Mulder trade, and the ’09 playoff drive becomes the textbook case of betting everything on one roll of the dice and coming up snake eyes
If that happens, I’ll still give the Cards credit for trying to win, which is similar to my feeling about the Mulder trade, which of course went bad because the Cards overvalued Mulder and undervalued Haren. (Although, to their credit, they were probably right about Barton.)
I hope their statistical models are a lot better for the guys they just gave up. We know the Indians and A’s did their homework; let’s hope Mo did his.
Maybe with Wagner Mateo at Busch today and getting to see him in his Cardinals uni will ease some peoples minds about losing so many prospects.
The thing that nobody looks at about these trades is that it made room the 40 man roster….meaning we lose less talent via the rule 5 draft. So when the rule 5 comes along and we only lose 1 or 2 players instead of 5 to 6 i’ll be happy.
Hugo – I don’t want to dive too far into this issue (the emphasis of the site is prospects, not speculating what will happen in 2010′s FA market) but I doubt Piniero will be resigned – he’ll probably get big $ over a few years if he keeps this up. He’s been great this year but I doubt the Cards will (and should) commit more than 2 years to him.
I’d like to see the Cardinals commit more $ to SP on short contracts because I have real doubts about the organization’s ability to develop SP from within. Through their strategy of drafting safe but low-upside SP (I would included Mortensen and Todd in this category) the Cards aren’t producing top talent SP. Maybe this is changing (Shelby Miller) but it will take time. I think some of the position prospects will pan out over the next couple of years – I don’t think the same can be said for SP.
I agree burt, but I have a feeling Joel will re-sign, maybe I am wrong but I just have a feeling that he will. If not then we have one more hole but I still see 3rd and LF as the biggest holes. I also agree on the SP prospects, Garcia is the best bet and he is still coming back from surgery so we can’t count on him anytime soon. Also Miller is still unsigned which I am becoming concerned about.
Miller won’t be signed till the deadline. They haven’t really started talking money yet because a) both sides already know the other’s baseline and b) if they reach a deal they can’t announce it till later and it’s hard to keep that kind of think quiet. Mozeliak and Luhnow are going down to Texas in the next week or so to visit with the family again.
I’ll be shocked if Miller doesn’t sign.
@Hugo. OK you got me on the Allen.
@Burt.
“For a prospect, improvement is expected the second time around a specific level.”
2009 is Craig’s first stop in Memphis. He stayed in Springfield all of 2008 according to thebaseballcube.com.
http://www.thebaseballcube.com/players/C/allen-craig.shtml
jjray – Hmmm, my mistake. I stand by my assertation that this year has been a disappointment so far for Craig but maybe not as much as I initially thought. I think the ship has sailed on him on as 3B but I hope he’s in the mix for an OF spot next year. A strong finish to the year would help.
AZ is right, to soon to worry about Miller. They’ve obviously been busy with the trade market and even if they did sign him they can’t announce it till the 17th because of the commisioner. Signing him probably gurantees he’ll be the organizations number one prospect with BA thus on a fast track. 2.5 million and a shot to be in the majors in three years is a heck of a lot better than College Station.
To early to worry about next year yet but my guess is they resign Holliday and go cheap in the rotation. They’ll let Boggs, Garcia, McCellen, Etc fight it out and probably bring in a bargin basement guy, Justin Duchsherer would be a perfect fit. By my qucik count they clear around 31 million off the payroll for 2010 so should be able to sign Holliday and Derosa for that along with the Arb increases and keep the payroll about the same.
@burt. Their plan on Craig seems to be utility corner IF-OF ala Joe Mather. I’m not sold on Freese so I think they should play Craig @ 3B in Memphis for the rest of the season to see how he performs. Giving ABs to K. Greene in Memphis is just throwing them away. Greene became extra baggage when we acquired Lugo.
cvb — first off, there was never a 40-man problem to begin with. i did a run-down of the 40-man at VEB about 3 weeks ago. second, the trades opened up exactly ONE spot on the 40-man (4 on the 40-man departed, three arrived; two not on the 40-man and not rule five eligible this year also departed). if we don’t resign derosa or holliday, we will have gained THREE spots.
but even before the trade we had very few prospects truly in danger of being taken, and all of them could be managed with the large number of free agents leaving and at worst some minor roster moves – like disposing of non-prospects like scherer or shane robinson or nick stavinoha.
Sorry, this is off-subject.
not sure if anyone had come across this yet. Casey Mulligan attempting “thriller” during a rain delay.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MEh6TcmlQes
Good write up, but I disagree with the “good but not astoundingly so” classification of Lynn and Henley.
Henley has clearly blown away expectation and Lynn is not far behind…..
I’m really fascinated by the way everyone just sort of throws around the notion of resigning Holliday AND DeRosa AND possibly Pineiro like it’s no big deal. Where exactly is all of this extra cash coming from? With a monstrous contract extension for Albert looming, you simply can’t sign all the players you want. I know it looks like there’s going to be plenty of money next season because of all the contracts coming off the books, but keep in mind, baseball players don’t sign one year deals. Especially not the ones everybody really wants to sign.
Aaron, if we win the division and at least one postseason series, I could see the money being there to sign 2 of those 3.
I have to assume some of that money was there this year — that’s how they came up with $7 million to sign Mateo and (we all hope) Miller, and to add several million dollars in payroll for the stretch drive.
I would quibble with the term “impact player.” To me Manny Ramirez and Sabathia were impact players. Halliday would be an impact player. I would put Holliday and DeRosa in the next tier down. Maybe something like plus player. I do like both players. My question or problem is with asset management. The DeRosa trade seems to be a good example of Mo overpaying in comparison to what Cleveland paid. If Witt is going to hold the line on the pay roll then we need a general manager who does a great job in this area. Of course only time will tell, it is certainly possible that the pitchers the Cubs got for DeRosa will be better than the pitchers Cleveland got but at this point with how the prospects were currently valued it does not look like it.
DeRosa is a 3 win player per year. Holliday 5-6. That’s not impact?
Hugo- Carp is signed through 2011 with a club option for 2012. Also, T. Miller is not already signed for next season.
Wonderful analysis. Thanks.
I especially liked the connection to the Braves as a model for how to use the farm.
Thanks again.
Boomer.