There’s a lot of reason to be excited about Jaime Garcia. After being selected in the 22nd round of the 2005 draft, Garcia pitched very well in 2006, held his own as a 21 year old in AA in 2007 and made it all the way to the majors as a 22 year old pitcher. He suffered an elbow strain toward the end of 2007 that the club chose to treat with rehab only to see the ligament tear the following year. Since having Tommy John surgery last year, Garcia has begun working his way back with rehab starts at various levels of the system.
On August 19th, he started at Memphis with a terrible first inning followed by a successful 5 frames where he struck out 8.
Delivery: Garica’s delivery remains very over the top though not quite as extreme as Tim Lincecum (or if anyone’s seen Eddie Degerman as well). One thing that fans may not like much is the very deliberate (read: slow) approach Garcia takes. Besides slowing down the pace of the game, it would seem to lend itself to oppenents stealing bases. Being a left hander will certainly mitigate that but, personally, I’m not a fan of the “tempo” Garcia has with his delivery.
Fastball: Given the arm slot, Garcia gets a lot of natural sink on his fastball. It lends itself to having batters roll over the top of it. The flip side is that when it’s up in the zone it’s a very vulnerable pitch. Garcia isn’t a pitcher who has a separate fastball he can throw by guys up in the zone; He’s going to live in the bottom half with his fastball if he’s going to have success with it. It sits 89-91 touching 93 so the velocity is there. Garcia threw a LOT of fastballs in this start and my suspicion is that it was part of his rehab instructions to try and get his command back. Fastballs accounted for over 70% of the pitches by my count.
Curveball: In combination with the fastball, this pitch plays well. The arm slot remains the same and the pitch doesn’t really change in its path to the plate until the midway point when sink becomes exaggerated. Saying that the bottom “falls out of it” would be an overstatement but it does drop more than his fastball while looking the same on it’s way to the plate. The third inning strikeout of uber-prospect Buster Posey (seen below), is a great example of the curveball used properly. The difference between the fastball (pitch 2) and the curveball (pitch 3) to Timpner in the first inning shows a great comparison of how deceptive the curveball is. The pitch is Garcia’s secondary pitch of choice when he can throw it for strikes.
Changeup: Garcia has a changeup but I didn’t pick up on more than a handful of them. In the past we’ve heard that it’s not much more than an average pitch or something to keep opposing hitters off balance. I can’t comment on it to any real degree given its paucity but the best example that I picked up on was to Ciriaco in the 4th inning where the pitch breaks away from the right hander on the outside of the plate and the batter is well ahead of the pitch.
Command: Garcia’s command was an issue all night. It was especially prevelant in the first inning. Here’s the first pitch that Joe Borchard sees with men on 1st and 3rd.
That is a fat pitch. The homerun that Copeland hits is a similarly missed location where the fastball catches way too much of the plate. Simply put, Garcia’s command is, maybe, at about 60% of where it needs to be. It definitely gets better as the game goes on but 1) he’s throwing a lot of fastballs to improve that command, 2) hitters still sat on the fastball ignoring the curve and 3) there were several 1st pitch fastballs taken for strikes that a big leaguer would have destroyed. The curveball showed good break but he struggled to get it in the strikezone or close enough for batters to chase. All too often, it was bouncing in the dirt.
Summary: The outlook for Garcia hasn’t really changed. He still profiles as a mid-rotation pitcher with flashes of being more than that depending on command and his ability to throw the curve against right handers without getting anihilated. I’ve commented in the past that I don’t see why the Cardinals wouldn’t give him a big league start or two in 2009 when they have to utilize a minor leaguer. I don’t agree with that sentiment any longer as the things he needs to work on prohibit him from having a gameplan to attack hitters. His game plan right now is designed to get his command back and get his feel for the curveball at 100%. It isn’t conducive to retiring major leaguers. Fans should wait for 2010 to see Garcia, but when he comes up, he should be the best pitching prospect since Adam Wainwright and Anthony Reyes to graduate from the minors.
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very, VERY nice AZ. I like that you mention he’s not ready to face big league hitters AND state the reason. I wish the FO was more transparent in the same way…That might give Memphis’s opponents TMI, but those games don’t matter THAT much. I’m excited to see Garcia, Freese and Mather contribute in 2010 after their injury depleted 09′s!
Love the scouting report, AZ, nicely done.
thanks, azru.
Any feel for how long it’s going to take to get that curve to where he wouldn’t (or shouldn’t) be afraid to throw it to a major leaguer, AZ? I guess I’m not as willing to rule out a late-season return to the bigs as you are. If first place has been clinched by say 9/20 (I know, big “if”), TLR will surely want to do some jockeying to set up the rotation for the post season, and a low-leverage start or two might make sense then. I’d agree, don’t entrust him with an “important” game, but with luck, the last week-plus of the season will have some less important opportunities.
The talk of a “deliberate” left-handed motion calls to my mind a description of John Tudor’s motion in 1985. Sweet memories…
If we are up 8 with 7 to play and TLR decides to let the guys from Memphis start a few to set up his rotation for the playoffs, then it is Boggs or Garcia or Wellemeyer that will get the nod. Is not Garcia at less than 100% effectiveness at least as good as Boggs or Wellemeyer? We know what Boggs brings. A September start would mean much more to Garcia. Wellemeyer … he should never start another MLB game except in extreme emergency. Tony & Dunc overexposed the guy and now his confidence is shattered.
There’s no reason to put that kind of pressure on Garcia, imo. He’d be liable to revert to bad habits or not doing the things he needs to do (throw a ton of fastballs for command) to get ready in order to try and survive a major league game.
I do not want Garcia facing the pressure of major league hitters this soon after tommy john surgery. He might try to impress a little too much and damage his arm further.
@azruavatar. I hear you but the hypothesis was 8 up with 7 to play. The race is over. There is no pressure other than what he puts on himself. Now if you are worried he gets hammered and that hurts his stock going into next season, I might agree with that. From a pure development standpoint though, getting back on the MLB horse during the 2009 season would be a plus.
What is your thinking that a slow approach leads to opponents steals? Conventional wisdom says the opposite as the base stealer is likely to relax back on his heals a bit waiting for the pitcher to make a pitch or a move to first.
Best since Reyes – are you sure you want to wish that on him?
It’s not just the approach (i.e. him taking time between pitches). His whole delivery toward the plate is slow, imo. He comes to a balance point at the top before falling and it’s a slow process.
But again, he’s left handed. I don’t expect it to be a big deal; it’s just not a delivery I would preach.
In response to the question about 8 up with 7 to play…at this point we are still in the home-field advantage race, and while it may be negligible how much that means for the teams chance at winning there is no question what it means in the way of revenues. I don’t see the Cards playing games that don’t matter until the last weekend of the season.
This is very interesting to read, after seeing Garcia’s 2010 first 2 months. Knock on wood. His Tommy John surgery is not something I knew about, so I see why the Cardinals are keeping his innings low.
Nice scouting report!