UCB Project: Top 7 Cardinal Prospects
Posted by erik in Prospect rankings, tags: Allen Craig, Daryl Jones, Eduardo Sanchez, Jaime Garcia, Lance Lynn, robert stock, shelby millerWell, this has been an eventful day. I meant to get this up much sooner, thankfully I didn’t. Wagner Mateo would have been my #4 prospect on this list, but who knows what is going on now.
A caveat here — I still like waiting for fall leagues to get over with before I come up with an “official” ranking, but in the name of collaboration and blogging, here’s my ranking. This system has greatly thinned and now looks a bit thinner without Mateo, who’s ceiling as a hitter I had at least believed to be higher than others. I’m starting to sour a bit on the whole international signing scene, there’s just too much shady dealings going on. I’m not saying the Cardinals should abandon it. It’s just not always the bonus babies that rise to the top of prospect lists, as evidenced by my #6 rated prospect.
- Shelby Miller – No brainer here, even though he hasn’t thrown more than 10 professional innings. You all know the scouting report. Miller’s a potential 1-2 starter. The road from here to there is long, and there’s a lot of ditches along side that road, but it’s exciting to have a pitcher with Miller’s ceiling in the system.
- Jaime Garcia – Jaime is back from Tommy John, which was the only knock on him the previous season. He’s burning worms and missing bats, just like before. Ceiling is #3 starter, which is why he is here.
- Daryl Jones – 2009 was better than his bad seasons but worse than his terrific year last year, no thanks to injury issues that dogged him all season long. Scouts remarked as to Jones looked more like a 4th OF due to his lack of speed and power, but the speed part was because of knee issues. Carl Crawford lite is the lofty comparison. I think he can be an average LF because his range will make up a little bat for a lack of thump. My semi-realistic but maybe overly optimistic hope for DJ Tools: .280/.355/.445, +5 defense, double-digits in steals.
- Lance Lynn – The big hoss does nothing super spectacular, but avoids ugly innings, misses an average number of bats and gets a little better than average ground ball outs.
- Allen Craig – Met with a big dose of skepticism from the scouting community despite mashing year after year. He got off to a slow start and still managed to have his finest season to date. I know he’s a little older at 25, but after this season in Triple-A I believe Craig can help the club now, whether that be at the hot corner or in the OF.
- Eduardo Sanchez – The breakout prospect of the year. He’s about on par with Reifer and Samuel in terms of stuff, only the big difference about Sanchez is he can command it more often than not. Look for him at some point in 2010.
- Robert Stock – People seem to forget he’s only 19. He mashed in the Appy, not sure if that amounts to much, but after suffering through the slumps he suffered through at USC it was nice to see him hit. The back-up plan of pitching has to be on the shelf for now. I do hear some concerns about Stock’s swing mechanics. I’m not fully on the bandwagon yet, but he was formerly mentioned as a possible first rounder and he has a nice ceiling. I just don’t get too thrilled after good Appy stats, call it the Niko Vazquez shakes.

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I’m with you on all of these. Love the fact that 3 of the top 4 are pitchers. Also, I think Jaime’s ceiling is still in flux; he’s pitching like a different guy in these last few starts, using the new cutter.
What do we know about Stock’s catching mechanics? The only thing I’ve heard about them is from Keith Law and he didn’t have much nice to say.
No love for Ottavino? The last 3 or 4 months of his season bring him into my Top 5.
I’ll do my Top 5 so hopefully everyone else will follow.
1. Shelby Miller
2. Jamie Garcia
3. Edwardo Sanchez
4. Lance Lynn
5. Adam Ottavino
Congrats to Memphis on their PCL Championship!
I think you have Stock too high this early in his career. I’m holding off judgement until we can see him perform at a higher level with QC next year.
My top 7 would look something like:
1. Miller
2. Garcia
3. Jones
4. Sanchez
5. Lynn
6. Descalso
7. Ottavino/Mulligan
Not sure Ottavino even belongs there anymore, but I still have hopes for him.
The Cards have given up on Craig for 3B. Since Freese can play 3B, he provides more than Craig and should be rated higher.
A little different for me:
1) Garcia
2) Jones
3) Boggs (eligibility?)
4) Miller
5) Sanchez
6) Descalso
7) Lynn
*if Boggs is considered ineligible then everyone slides up a spot and Henley is my 7th.
For me Miller clearly has the highest upside of anyone on this list but he is 18 and has thrown 2 innings of professional ball. He is in my top 5 but I cannot put him #1 yet until I see some results. I have Boggs way up there because of his power arm. He throws mid-nineties with very little apparent effort. His control seems to be slowly coming around as well. I think he’ll spend next year in the ‘pen and probably take a rotation spot in 2011.
Ottavino is a top 5 prospect in this system
Ottavino’s results have finally matched his stuff in the last 4 months. Honestly I think Ottavino is AS likely to make the Big Club next year as Garcia.
Don’t know what it is I just don’t see Jones as a Major League starter. Maybe I”m just hoping that we never see him in STL which means we would have signed Holliday to long term contract. Either way this is my first yera really following prospects and Jones has been well not very good at all this year.
Whoa hey whoa. The throttle is stuck on wide open on the ottavino bandwagon. I thought the pessism was unnecessarily dire for him in the early summer but top five?
I like what he’s done in late summer but next year will be his big test. In memphis barring catastrophe in the ML club.
Erik, I’m thinking there must be a specific reason why Descalso’s not in your list. Can you tell me what that is? I would have him third. What am I missing? Also I agree wholeheartedly that Craig is a real Cardinal prospect and that he may have been more valuable than DeRosa had he been called up. His line against lefties is terrific.
I don’t see how David Freese gets bumped off the list. He has put up a .900 OPS in his limited action in Memphis this year. But I think you under estimate his defense where he has shown he can be a +10 on the corner. This to me makes him much more valuable than Craig.
The reason I’m so high on Ottavino is I have Milb.tv and watched the majority of his starts for the last 3 months. He turned out to be the most consistant starter for Memphis, he has Big League stuff and I can see that his issues are usually just his mechanics getting out of whack. He’s also only 23 years old. I wouldn’t be so high on him if I didn’t actually see the difference in him between the beginning of this year and the end but I can see it with my eyes the growth of him. I judge prospects by the potential effect they have in St. Louis or another team. There aren’t many in our system that will make as much an impact in Big Leagues.
+ 1. Andrew.
Many on this board loved PJ Walters last year but I always said all he is a good AAA guy and an ML filler. Ottavino may never make it but he has the stuff to be a #2 on a good club if he becomes more consistent. He has showed flashes of his Pot. Don’t forget the meaning of prospect. It does not make a kid a sure thing it just tells you he has pot and ceiling.
Too bad you (erik) can’t be more rational about Mateo, a la Az – “I can’t get worked up on this one way or the other and we should let the Cardinals vet the situation because, frankly, we don’t know what’s going on.”
Unless you know something we don’t??????
I am perplexed about Descalsco not being on here.
My top 10
1-Garcia
2-Jones
3-Lynn
4-Miller (To make it to the bigs—in the State of MO—You better SHOW ME something)
5-Descalsco
6-Craig
7-Freese
8-Ottavino
9-Sanchez
10-Henley (This guy has earned a spot)
I’m perplexed that you would have Descalso over Greene! Greene will OPS higher, play better defense, and steal more bases.
Greene’s ceiling is more limited by the organization—he may never crack the big club. It was an oversight to not include him in the top 10 however….I just wouldn’t put him ahead of DD at this point.
I think it would still be reasonable to have Mateo in the top 7 here — as long as it is understood that there is risk involved, because of the eye thing. His ceiling is still very high. The chances of him reaching that ceiling have diminished, possibly significantly. That moves him down, but not off, my list; ALL of these guys have risk, after all.
My list:
1. Miller
2. Garcia
3. Jones
4. Lynn
5. Craig
6. Mateo (see above)
7. Descalso
Given how many alternatives there are for the last couple of spots, I’m not displeased by this list, even though the guys at the top are high-risk.