Thanksgiving coming up has delayed my plans to get back into writing but I’m thinking that the time off itself will help. Until then, Derrick Goold loosed the BA top 10 on us.
- Shelby Miller, RHP
- Jaime Garcia, LHP
- Lance Lynn, RHP
- Daryl Jones, OF
- David Freese, 3B
- Eduardo Sanchez, RHP
- Allen Craig, OF/1B/3B
- Blake Hawksworth, RHP
- Daniel Descalso, 2B
- Robert Stock, C
It’s a solid list overall. I think the inclusion of Hawksworth is a mistake and I probably won’t wind up with Freese as high (but I’m always pessimisstic on Freese). Otherwise, there isn’t anything glaring that jumps out at me.
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BA puts the eligibility requirements at less than 130 at bats or 50 IP, without regard to service time.
If you’re referring tot he word mistake, I meant it as “he shouldn’t be in the top 10″ not they missed a criteria.
Is Lynn a top level prospect? It seems he is, but profiles to be a “workhorse” type. Although that may be more from his physical description than anything else.
Cannot be to unhappy if he develops into a solid #3. I just think he sounds like a Kurt Kepshire type. Makes me a little worried.
5 years from now, I would not mind a rotation of Waino, Miller, Garcia, Lynn, X
looks pretty good and cheap to me
I’m not sure why Bryan Anderson is ranked behind Stock (or Hawksworth or Descalso for that matter) at this point. Yes, it was encouraging that Stock hit well in Rookie ball, but personally I’m drawing very little from that (plus, he struggled upon a promotion to Low-A). Anderson struggled this year, but he had just 145 at-bats at Triple-A and was playing with a bum shoulder. Last year he was No. 5 on BA’s list, behind only guys that have now either lost eligibility to be on the list or are in a different organization, and now he’s not even in the top 10 of a system that is noticeably weaker? The guy is still just 22 years old. I don’t get it.
http://redbirdroost.com/2009/11/23/bas-cardinals-top-10-prospects/
I am not this high on Craig. He isn’t going to play major league ball as more than a bench bat.
I think we should all thank our lucky stars for Shelby Miller. . .otherwise we’d be looking at one stinky top 10 list. Here’s hoping 2010 will bring us another high-ceiling guy to pair with him. After Miller I’m actually most excited about Stock, but then I remember Niko. . .blech.
It’s always a question of ceiling vs. likelihood to reach the ceiling. A guy like Craig, and at this point in his career Hawksworth, seems unlikely to be an all-star or even a starter but they are likely to reach (or already have reached) the majors. In an average farm system at a given point in time, how many players will make the majors? I guess I’m asking whether being in the majors, even if only as an extra bat or a middle inning reliever, is still enough, on average, to justify a top 10 ranking?
Another way of asking this is who was the better prospect, John Gall or Shaun Boyd?
BJM – I disagree on Craig. I think he is going to be a very good hitter. I think he has been held back only by his inability to stick at a position. His numbers from level to level have been very consistent regardless of park or competition.
Nick-
I am not criticizing his bat. His problem is that even if he sticks at left in the majors, this diminishes the value of his bat relative to his position as power hitting leftfielders are pretty easy to come by and Craig is not our long-term solution there.
I guess the question I have is do you think he will be better than Xavier Nady? Nady or a player of his ilk can be had every year on a one year contract. Last year you could have pick up Abreau. My general thinking is that there is never a bad one year contract, the risk/reward ratio is usually skewed in the teams favor.
Anyway, anyone think the Cards are interested in Noel Arguelles? A little pricey but it would make a splash in Latin America, which we kinda need after the Wagner Mateo affair.
I dont think craig would have any problem putting up equal numbers as Abreu (minus the speed and a few points on BA). plus he is making leage minimum while abreu would make 9 mill.
He would probably put up numbers close to nady too, asuming he dosent have as strong a season as he did in 08 because of the injury.
I tend to agree with Silent George although I think that Craig, as well as Freese and Hawksworth, will make more of a contribution than John Gall. In fact Hawksworth may already have. Anybody who plays a real role in a successful major league stretch drive and still qualifies as a prospect should be able to make the Cardinals top ten this year. The fact is we’re rich in these kind of prospects and we should be happy, if not excited, to have them.
I like the fact that we drafted and signed Miller too but, if I had to make a bet, I’d bet that he would not have a good major league career. I say that not because I’m not excited about him or because I don’t think he’s talented. It’s just that something usually happens to derail these teenagers with “number one starter potential” along the way.
Freese, Craig and Hawksworth, however limited their ceilings are, are ready this year and actually fit role needs that the team currently has and they all have a good shot of being average major leaguers. Every team needs needs ‘em.
P.S. I think it’s a good list too. I’d switch Garcia and Miller and raise Descalso a couple of slots but it’s pretty much my top ten.
@BigJawnMize, re: Craig. “His problem is that even if he sticks at left in the majors, this diminishes the value of his bat relative to his position as power hitting leftfielders are pretty easy to come by”
Are there are sizable number of corner outfielders with power in the MLB? Yes. To do they often become available on the free agent market? Yes. But those are meaningless facts. The question is what is the market value of such a hitter. Why price do have to pay to get a corner outfielder with Craig’s projected power?
Little example. Below are the 2010 Chone projects for two outfielders. One will probably makes $7-8 million in arbitration for 2010. The will get league minimum, if he makes the team at all.
Player A. 0.269 0.341 0.482 .823
Player B. 0.278 0.334 0.447 .784
Player A is Ryan Ludwick. Player B is Allen Craig.
http://www.baseballprojection.com/2010/SLN2010.htm
If Craig can equal his chone projections, he is valuable because he is cost controlled. With playing time over a few years, assuming Craig can equal the projections for 2010, one would expect Craig’s OPS to crest above 800.
I realize Descalso is several years younger than Greene but will he ever field as good as Greene? Will he ever have as much speed as Greene? While he’ll probably hit for a higher average, will his OPS ever be as good as Greene’s?
Obviously I think Greene is a better prospect than Descalso.
I’m not sold on Craig I watched quite a bit of Memphis games this year……Hes got a really really long swing. It really needs to be shortened and if it doesn’t I don’t see him hitting good MLB pitching at all.