One of the common arguments about valuing free agents is the fact that no deal is made in isolation. For every player that a team doesn’t sign, there’s some alternative. It’s almost certainly not an alternative they wanted to exercise and often it’s a substantial downgrade but establishing the baseline performance of that alternative gives us an idea of what the dropoff is. Starting off, we’ll take a quick look at left field.
There are a couple of options in the minors to fill in left field should Matt Holliday be signed elsewhere and the Cardinals choose not to pursue other free agents. You could make a case for players like Nick Stavinoha or Shane Robinson, whom have both already had a bit of time in the majors, to be considered. Both come with significant downfalls, defensive ones and offensive ones respectively. Jon Jay makes for a better discussion as he hits more than Robinson while fielding quite well. But when talking about left field, the most likely in house alternative seems to be Allen Craig.
A player who is supposedly without a defensive position (though I still can’t fathom the move away from 3rd), Craig has been a consistent producer at each stop in the minors. Over the last three years, he’s posted the following wOBAs beginning in 2007: .400, .386, .400. It’s worth noting that the last two come in hitter friendly environments but it’s obvious that Craig is doing something right with the bat. Maintaining an average over .300 with a high-OBP from decent walk rates, Craig has flashed plus-power hitting 20 HRs each year and no less than 25 doubles.
So what does Craig offer? Taking his statistics from last season in which he hit .322/.374/.547, I’ve gotten translations from both Minor League Splits and Baseball Prospectus. I don’t believe either set of minor league equivalencies (MLEs) is “open source” and even if it was, I won’t pretend that I’m personally in a position to evaluate its efficacy. Nonetheless, it’s been my experience that BP has very optimistic translations (both regular and peak) and Minor League Splits seems more realistic. That’s a totally subjective and anecdotal evaluation but it’s what I’m going to use to try and baseline his performance for next year.
His 2009 stats using BP’s regular translation paint a rosy picture of a player that hits almost as well in the majors posting a line of .296/.345/.516. That .364 wOBA seems very optimistic even to someone who has been a long time Craig advocate. I personally think that Craig could easily replicate a league average offensive season of .330 wOBA. Let’s assume that’s the high end of his projection meaning that Craig has a 20% chance of posting that line. We’ll use the Minor League Splits MLE for a low projection with a translation of .270/.315/.438 good for a .318 wOBA. We’ll assign a 50% chance that chance of that. We’ll also assume a 10% chance that he’s a total bust with a .297 wOBA.
Converting each of those to runs we’ve got +20, 0, -7 and -20*. Using the percentages above, that would give us an overall offensive run production of about half a run. That jives with my personal projection nicely. If you want the slash stat equivalent, think .275/.330/.425 or Melky Cabrera 2009.
Of course, that’s only one piece of the puzzle. Defense is far more of a crapshoot given that there’s little to no data on Craig in the outfield. He was rated as something around average at 3B by TotalZone (a psuedo play-by-play statistic available at Minor League Splits) but his skillset doesn’t seem like it would translate all that well to the outfield. He’s not particularly fast and his arm doesn’t rate any better than average. Moving from a more difficult fielding position to a corner outfield position we’d expect his defensive numbers to go up but I’m unwilling to make that assumption. I also have a hard time envisioning him as a worse fielder than some of the current MLB corner outfielders. We’ll call him a nuetral defender in left but you could rate him +/- 5 and I wouldn’t argue with you.
The positional adjustment for LF is -7.5 runs. Replacement adjustment is +20 runs.
Together that gives us a player who is about 13 runs above replacement or about 1.3 WAR. This seems like an eminently reasonable assessment of Craig. It could be worse; it could also be better but ~1 WAR seems like what should be reasonably expected.
So whenever the options in left field are listed and the rumors fly thick and fast, ask if the incremental WAR increase from free agent A or trade target B is worth the incremental cost increase from Allen Craig.
*Note: All run totals are based on 700 PAs or an equivalent set of defensive innings. Pro-rate the final number based on playing time.
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Azru you make an astute observation of the present situation. Lets give him the job and go after Halliday. I think this is a wise choice.
John Moz seems intent on giving the villain Mr. Freese a shot at the 3B job. TLR would pop a gasket if asked to start the season with Freese at 3B and Craig in LF. The fact that this may make the most sense given the $$$s Holliday and Bay are likely to command and the unappetizing choices in the next tier is irrelevant from a practical standpoint. It won’t happen on Tony’s watch. If we miss out on Bay and Holliday, a LFer from the 2nd tier will be brought in, akin to trading for K. Greene (and Cesar Izturis before him) instead of going with B. Ryan.
But I guess practicality is irrelevant in the offseason when baseball blogs endlessly kick around “what if”. Never mind.
Though I agree w/ Azru and , as a fan, would rather see the “kids” have a shot, Jjray makes an excellent point, though I’d add that Albert’s perceived reaction is likely to play a role in this decision-making process, as well as Tony’s.
jjray & 643 – I don’t totally agree with your assessment. I have heard Mo say that if Holliday is not back that they will look to add a veteran presence at 3B. I think it is one or the other. If Holliday is back then Freese gets the nominal 3B nod (with a lesser priced veteran as backup…Crede maybe). If Holliday goes elsewhere then I think Craig will get a shot in LF with a platoon partner (Hinske?) and the Cards will look for a more legitimate 3B option (Glaus, Cantu, etc.).
To be clear, I’m not advocating for or against any specific free agent signing. I’m simply trying to get a handle on what our farm system guys can provide.
Can you factor into your analysis a platoon of Craig and John Jay, which might well be the platoon that they would want to use to get each player’s feet wet in their first year the majors? Thanks for all the hard work in coming up with this interesting material.
When talking about a platoon, you are assuming a best case scenario that plays to both player’s strengths and attempting to minimize their weaknesses. The problem is that Jay has had exactly one good year (2008) so you’d wind up setting the offensive threshold for his production very low if you base it off of 2009. He makes up some ground by platooning him and on defense but, some back of the envelope calculations get you maybe another 7 runs between him and Craig with some optimistic assumptions.
Expecting anything better than 2 WAR from farm system alternatives is a mistake, imo.
If Holliday is not back, one alternative is to resign DeRosa and let him split his time between third base and left field. Essentially he becomes a full-time player, though playing at two spots, while both Freese and Craig get some playing time. If one of the rooks breaks out, then DeRosa plays more of the other position.
Nicely done, AZ. That’s exactly what I’d expect out of Craig, which is why the whole Xavier Nady bandwagon seems like they are off their rockers. I understand there’s some rookie risk, but isn’t there some injury risk, not to mention a few million dollars? I think I’d sooner take my chances with Craig.
I think the midway from Holliday and Graig is Dunn. Not exactly but in a pratical sense. Holliday is 4-6 wins while Graig is a 1 win guy. Who is “available”, a true upgrade but not out of the question. Dunn fits the bill. If it is true that TLR wont start the season without a “Vet” at either 3B or LF I don’t see how we don’t get Dunn.
I am not saying this is what I want. Just an observation on the directions of two organizations a manager and a player. I see them intersecting some time in February. Around the 1st week.
Dunn has been a 1 win player the last two years despite his three true outcomes awesomeness, his defense is just that awful. Unless the NL adopts the DH rule between now and opening day, forget Dunn.
Erik, I guess the risk of rookie failure and having completely relied on your rookie in planning for next year. If you plan to go with Craig and he fails, what do you do? Trade? You are trading from extreme weakness and probably give up too much for not enough in return. If you sign nady and use Craig as a 4th or 5th outfielder then you have a back-up plan if Nady fails. You break the rookie in slowly and if he blossoms you can give him 400 ABs without much trouble.
Not advocating Nady per se. I have a feeling the market for Holliday is a bit smaller than they want you to believe and we resign him. If not, then I would add a veteran guy for insurance if nothing else. These projections are great, but we still don’t know and I would prefer for a great season from Craig to be a bonus than for a bad season to cost the club some games.
Hope for Holliday, plan B has to be better than X. Nady. I don’t know who it is, but someone who is less of an injury risk and hopefully a better player. Doesn’t have to be a star, just average. I’ve advocated Mike Cameron in the past, although I’m not sure if that’s realistic or not.
@cray. Agree DeRosa makes sense a fallback but I’m certain he will be gone by the time Holliday signs. If the Cards stay in the Holliday race to the bitter end, DeRosa will be gone. Boras will play the long waiting game with Holliday.
@Nick. If you are saying that if the Cards strike out on Holliday they may look at a vet at 3B possibly allowing JMo to ask Tony to start the season with Allen Craig in left, I only partially agree. I think Tony would demand a platoon in this case. He will want some left handed hitting vet to be a platoon partner with Craig. Which means Chief Justice Jay is not the guy for the platoon.
I would like to see Craig get a shot. Don’t just look at his stats but look at his second half stats because that shows how good a player he became. How good he is right now. I believe he hit over .400 with something like 18 home runs and an astronomical slugging
pct.
Craig is going to get exposed if he has to play regularly, Filling up your line by getting hot in great hitters parks and silly projections look good on paper, but when the better pitching and bigger parks show up its going to be a big time reality check!
How do you know Craig is going to be exposed? Seems to be he has proven time and again he can hit
VolsnCards5 he has proved he can hit in hitters parks but so does everyone else thats why they are hitters parks once he’s forced to hit real HR’s his power is going to limited and his stike outs are going to spike.
az–hit the nail on the head. a good gm is one who can correctly evaluate incremental cost (especially if he works for dewitt). want the corvette or ferrari? the ferrari will probably get you around the track a tick faster, but that tick will cost you a bundle. that is why i worry about getting involved with holliday at all. to my mind they should have offered during the exclusive period and if he didn’t accept (he wouldn’t), then just move on. the longer he waits, the more mo will have to pay for the alternatives.
after they pulled the mid-season trigger this year, i’m not all that opposed to going with freeze, jay/craig in left, and some cash.
Erik, Completely agree. As I said I wasn’t advocating Nady. Not sure why all the love for him exists, but we do need some veteran to help out.
I think this comes down to Pujols. They want to resign Holliday for Pujols. I wouldn’t be shocked if they make both deals before the end of the winter. Patience is hard, but I think it is worth it.
Holliday was never going to sign during the negotiation period. This is his biggest and best chance to land a huge contract. He was going to play the Yankees and Red Sox and drive up the market as much as possible. Right now he isn’t getting a lot of play. To walk away from that negotiation before it ever has a chance to succeed would be foolish.
Anyone see Goold’s article which referenced the Sox getting involved and how they could turn Bay into Holliday and land a better pick out of the deal?
I suspect Eric Hinske taking a big chunk of PA in LF, with Craig playing every day against LHP and taking some PH/occasional starts vs RHP would put up in excess of 2 WAR. I guess that’s our “cheap option” for LF, and, to be honest, I rather like it. I can’t see Hinske costing more than $3m, and that leaves us money to add a 3B or a top SP.
hmmmm…every park factor i have seen on autozone park makes it seem pretty average…not really a hitter or pitcher’s park
I have been thinking about a Brian Giles/Allen Craig platoon on the cheap. I bet we could get Giles on practically nothing. I would want to know how his knee is hurting. But I have hard time believing arguable the best RFer in baseball in 2008 became the worst one by 2009. Some bad luck and injuries mixed in.
VolsnCards5, AZP for the most part is neutral but plays small on days when the humidity is low, He had a .445 SLG at home vs the .634 he had on the road, he hit 7 HR at home and 2 HR were in one game where 8 others were hit and 2 other guys had 2 HR games.
Whats going to happen to his SLG and overall line when the park goes from a Neutral to a pitchers park and the level of competition increases, and its no more flawed minor league LHP to hit and he’s facing polished major league lefties who have better stuff and control.
Flim Flam may have a great idea. Giles was, at one time, a coveted player for the Cardinals which probably means he was a LaRussa obsession. He has creamed right handed pitching over his career and Craig has creamed lefties in the minors. If Giles is available for cheap then I would expect this to be far preferable to the guys who manned left field before the Holliday trade. It also means we could forget paying Holliday half of Dubai’s debt over the next six years in a crippling contract. We’d get to see what Craig can do (something I’d really like) might be able to get TLR to accept giving Freese a chance at 3b (something else I’d really like since I think he’d also do far better than the suspects who manned it this year), get us a couple of draft picks and maybe allow us to sign a real closer and make a good offer to Albert. Except for the 3b part you can’t do any of that if you sign Holliday. A Giles/Craig platoon sounds mighty good to me.
If the Cardinals go into 2010 with Craig as their starting anything, Mo failed the off season. Craig needs to win a spot on the roster first. Then fight for playing time off the bench.
Holliday prices himself out of StL, and the Cardinals happily take the compensation picks.
Vladimir Guerrerro was not offered arbitration by LAA. No loss of draft picks for signing him. You don’t have to commit long term as he is 35. He’d probably like to hit behind Albert, his countryman. Even with health concerns you still count on Vlad for 2/3rds of a good season. Craig, Jones, or whoever can back him up.
There. Quite Easily done. Next question? ;)