Alternate Title: Why the Cardinals re-signed Jason LaRue
Bryan Anderson is going to be 23 in two weeks. (Happy Birthyday Bryan!) Let that sink in for a second. If he had been drafted as a college catcher, he’d basically have played AAA in his first season of pro ball. Now, obviously this isn’t his first season but it’s a good illustration of how young he is playing at an advanced level. Prior to 2009, his lowest batting average at any stop was .281. In 2008 at Memphis, he posted a .367 OBP. Remember that the offensive threshold for a catcher is set very low. Their positional adjustment is 12.5 runs. If a catcher in the majors posts a .330 wOBA and plays a full season, they’re an instant 3 win player.
Based on his 2009 numbers (.245/.293/.399), there’s not a chance that Anderson would have done that. MinorLeagueSplits MLE converter shows his 2009 season at Memphis compiling a .215/.253/.335 in St. Louis. Baseball Prospectus, once again seemingly optimistic, project a .232/.276/.390 season in St. Louis. (I’m calling crap on any translation that shows his ISO getting BETTER in the majors.) The former translation nets a .256 wOBA and the latter a .290 wOBA.
Take that back a year and use his 2008 line translated to the majors and the MinorLeagueSplits (i.e. the pessimisstic one) gets as sunny as BP 2009. His Memphis line of .281/.367/.379 translates to a .242/.312/.319 line in the majors good for a .292 wOBA. Think Jason Kendall post-2004. Over the course of a full season, that wOBA is equivalent to about -23 runs. So Bryan Anderson circa 2008 performed in Memphis like a 1 WAR catcher in the majors assuming average defense.
In 2008 a lot of things went right for Anderson. To assume that he’s actually a .290 wOBA player in the majors at that point seems optimistic. 2009 shows the perils of making that assumption. Jason LaRue has a much more reliable track record (lower variance for projections) so there’s a risk averse model of assembling your team that would make a strong advocacy for retaining his services. LaRue has posted a .286 and .279 wOBA over the last two seasons so even a strong translation for Anderson doesn’t show much in the way of offensive gains. The Cardinals aren’t really paying LaRue to be a good catcher. They’re paying him to suck less than any in house alternatives. The marginal gains here aren’t more wins so much as they are fewer losses.
At this point, even as an ardent supporter of Anderson, I’d be skeptical of him posting anything higher than a .300 wOBA in 2010 at the majors — and that would be something like my 90% projection. All I can really hope for is that the Cardinals dispose of whatever ill-conceived notion they have regarding Matt Pagnozzi. In 2009, Pagnozzi had a .221/.299/.308 line in Memphis over almost 300PAs. He’s never posted an wOBA over .300 in the minors over a full season. Anderson at his worst offensively, is still better than Pagnozzi at his best offensively. I struggle to believe that the differences in defense (which I think is way overblown in the negative for Anderson and in the positive for Pagnozzi) overcome that offensive disparity.
Jason LaRue makes a lot of sense for St. Louis in 2010. There is no viable in house alternative that we can trust to be replacement level. Bryan Anderson makes a lot of sense for Memphis and getting a full season of PAs after rehabbing from his shoulder injury. Matt Pagnozzi just doesn’t make much sense anywhere.
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I presume on the last paragraph you meant 2010…though he made sense in 09 as well. Otherwise very good analysis. I especially like the part where Pagnozzi is an after thought, rather than the top minor league catcher and number 3 on the depth chart.
Yes — corrected.
Carrying FOUR catchers on the 40-man won’t last more than a year, not on a club w/ a lot of prospects. This is a big year for the catching staff: one of anderson, pags, or larue won’t be on the roster next fall.
Also agree with the analysis – very appropriate. One other thing to keep in mind. We all know that TLR and Duncan don’t care much for Anderson because of “defensive deficiencies” – regardless of how much offense is being left on the table by not playing him. But this may be the last year for both of them running the Cards. If Anderson comes back and has a good year in Memphis, then he may still play for the Cards down the road, given a new manager.
One question. With no investigation, it seems to me that Pagnozzi may have hit (somewhat) better in Memphis as the year went on. Was that true?
Anderson’s defensive issues are definitely not overblown, and here’s Pagnozzi breakdown for CRay.
.160 in April for 25 AB
.255 in May/June/July in 145 AB
.165 in Aug/Sep in 103 AB counting playoffs
Thanks for providing some perspective on Anderson.
It feels like he’s been in the system so long that you forget what a good prospect he can be given his age and the levels he’s performed at.
I’m making a note to mark where AZ ranks Anderson versus other prospect lists this winter.
From preliminary discussions and the BA/Fangraphs lists this year, I seem to have a drastically different opinion of a handful of prospects in the system.
>>>”We all know that TLR and Duncan don’t care much for Anderson because of “defensive deficiencies” – regardless of how much offense is being left on the table by not playing him. ”
Is this really on TLR and Duncan? They haven’t had much experience with Anderson, and I’ve never really seen them comment on him one way or another. I thought that was more of an organizational attitude–that Anderson seriously needed to work on his defensive fundamentals, which is why Matt Matheny worked with him in the off-season.
is there any more talk about anderson changing position?
You’re giving the hyperventilating prospect geek frat a bad name with all this realism, AZ.
Did I dream it or did Anderson strain a rotator cuff in 2008 and decline surgery? My recollection was that Anderson was making strides with his catching fundamentals then the arm issue cropped up.
Wouldn’t the career strategy for Anderson by the Cardinals be to attempt to rejuvenate his offense and work on his defense this year, while hopefully not needing him (or Pagnozzi) to be an injury replacement for Molina? Then assuming the best he could replace Larue in 2011 as the 2nd catcher, giving the Cards a left handed hitting platoon to give Molina more rest. Then if Anderson can become a stablilized second catcher over a couple of years in the majors, he can either be flipped in a trade or continue being the second catcher.
Related question, do guys such as Stavinoa, Hill or Cruz have ultimately value on the Cardinals bench as 3rd catchers in addition to other positions they play and pinch hitting so that Anderson (or some other second catcher) could be used in an appropriate pinch hitting roles without a great concern of not having a catcher if Molina or whoever is starting a game is hurt later in that game. I see some value in that, particularly since they seem inclined to carry 12 pitchers and only 5 bench players. I presume Freese could also be that 3rd catcher, but if he gets the starting 3b job they might not want to risk injury to him when utilizing him in such a catching role. Thoughts? Thanks.
IC, your inquiries struck a nerve. I’ve had a soft spot for Steve Hill ever since he showed up, and I think he’d be a good 25th guy on the roster, with the ability to catch in an emergency while mainly pinch-hitting — IF the roster wasn’t nearly 50% pitchers, which is exactly the opposite of where you see the value in that kind of player. The problem is that when you only have 5 bench players, all 5 of them must be “full-service” players who are more than barely adequate at the roles they play. The role you’re proposing for Stav/Hill/Cruz might see them used in one game in three. The only guy used that infrequently last year was LaRue. If Stav/Hill/Cruz can’t BE the full-service reserve catcher, is there room for them on the roster?
Kind of off topic, but I was wondering why Jon Jay hasn’t played in Venezuela since November 19th? At least thats what it shows on his stats. I don’t know anything about the Venezuela league so I was wondering if he was hurt, because his numbers looked like he was actually hitting pretty well after after a slow start/
Grunt, I was suggesting that someone such as Stav/Hill/Cruz would be carried as an extra IF of OF with the ability to be the emergency when you wanted someone such as Anderson, the #2, to pinch hit and not leave yourself without a catcher if Molina subsequently got hurt in a game, or you needed to pinch run for Molina, inserting Larue/Anderson and then again in an emergency needed a catcher. I am looking at those guys as versitility to give a 5 man bench more flexibility instead of never being able to use the 2nd catcher in the same game as whoever starts.
Right, got that, IC. However, the problem still remains that TLR will want to make sure a spare catcher is on the bench at all times — whether it’s LaRue or Stav/Hill/Cruz. Having that be LaRue is relatively harmless; after all, he’s not much of a hitter. Having it be the S/H/C utility guy helps only if TLR is willing to play him at other positions. With these three it isn’t obvious that they’d get that time, unless one of them steps up and shows they can play in the majors — and hit.
Off topic, regarding the “lot of prospects” problem, I heard Joe Strauss on the radio the other day say that Baseball America just came out with their organizational minor league rankings, the Cards were 29th out of 30 teams. I have not checked this article out myself, but thought I would mention it as I had not seen it discussed elsewhere on this site.