Sean Smith has gone a step ahead of all the defensive projections we’ve seen out there by including minor leaguers. He’s been providing minorleaguesplits.com with total zone numbers. Here’s an article on how these numbers are translated. I’m sure they are projected similarly to how others are done, with weighting several years of data.
Here’s the numbers for the Cardinals’ minor leaguers.
Rally also has his own method for evaluating catcher defense, which is just gravy. The usual caveats apply when looking at these numbers, remember – when in doubt, ask a scout.
Bryan Anderson projects to be terrible. We knew he was bad, but now we have at least one projection on how bad he’d actually be. Zounds. Pagnozzi’s defensive reputation: overrated.
On the positive, Jon Jay, Shane Robinson and David DeJesus come out looking quite good. All of them could hold their own at center field if need be. Jon Jay’s best tool is his bat, or so we’ve long been told, but he has some excellent range. I really like his chances to catch on with the big club this year. Unfortunately Robinson and DeJesus don’t have the offensive capability to be a lot better than replacement level at this point, unlike Jay, who should be a solid 4th OF.
Bad news for Tyler Henley. His bat profiles much, much better in center, but he projects a bit to be just a little better than average defensively at the corner spots.
Allen Craig and David Freese both project at 0. This is good news for Craig. On the other hand, Freese has put together some solid #’s in total zone, but apparently the translations for infielders are a bit tough. I’ve seen scouting reports that say he’s good, and I’ve also heard he’s average at worst, so this very well could be an accurate projection.
It’s easy to see why the club let Jarrett Hoffpauir go.
Colt Sedbrook won BA’s equivalent of a Gold Glove at 2B. Looks like minor league managers and coaches are as good at handing out these awards as their major league counterparts.