Kicking off the official Future Redbirds rankings (installment 1 of 4) for 2010 comes a smattering of relievers and flawed but intriguingly talented prospects.
#20. Adron Chambers
Age – 23
Stats
Individual Rankings – azruavatar – N/A, Jeff Roman – 19, erik – N/A
Player Comments –
I love Adron, I think he has the base stealing speed and defensive speed for CF. As long as he can get his OBP up and keep legging out triples, he should get a lot more attention – Jeff Roman
No longer a sleeper, I like his secondary skills. He doesn’t hit for power but he has a lot of speed and range in the outfield. My wildly optimistic comparison for Chambers is Nyjer Morgan. – erik
#19. Adam Ottavino
Age – 24
Stats
Individual Rankings – azruavatar – 14, Jeff Roman – N/A, erik – 17
Player Comments -
Eh. Ottavino had some ups and down and bouts with wildness, but he had some solid outings this past season. I think his stuff would play up well coming out of the bullpen. Repeating Memphis for 3rd time would not be a badge of honor, but it looks like that’s where he’s headed for one more last ditch effort at remaining a starter. -erik
This ranking is for all the times I was accused of being too down on Adam Ottavino during DFRs. In seriousness, Ottavino still has the potential to harness his stuff as a starting pitcher as opposed to other prospects who have the potential to harness their stuff as relievers. That makes a huge difference in value as even moderately successful starters are as valuable as all but the most elite of relievers. Control will be the unmaking of Ottavino, as it is for so many prospects in the Cardinals’ system, unless he can get that straightened out. -azruavatar
Oh no, it looks like I’m the Ottavino downer in the group. I just think he’s getting a little old for not having figured out AAA and his upside is getting lower by the year. - Jeff Roman
#18. Joe Kelly
Age -22
Stats
Individual Rankings – azruavatar – 18, Jeff Roman – 17, erik – 16
Player Comments -
There’s not a lot separating Kelly, Samuel and Reifer for me. Kelly has the arsenal to move quickly through the system as a reliever. I like the idea of letting him try his hand at starting, it could be an experiment that pays off. -erik
The Cardinals have made a habit in the last few years of drafting and signing high powered arms with flaws. Kelly has the stuff to move rapidly but the danger is that he’s completely derailed by command or health. -azruavatar
#17. Francisco Samuel
Age – 23
Stats
Individual Rankings – azruavatar – 16, Jeff Roman – 16, erik – 18
Player Comments –
How the mighty have fallen when they lose their control and lose their closer position. He will be in the minors until he finds it again (if ever). - Jeff Roman
Throw strikes, Francisco. He’s could be our own Carlos Marmol, only with worse control. -erik
#16. Blake Hawksworth
Age – 27
Stats
Individual Rankings – azruavatar – N/A, Jeff Roman – 15, erik – 13
Player Comments -
I was a bit surprised to see him crack BA’s top ten, even as thinned out as they system has become. I have up higher than my compatriots because he’s shown he can get major league hitters out. He’s added a cut fastball to go with a solid change. I think he could be the team’s 5th starter. -erik
Easily the most perplexing choice of 2010 top prospect lists for me is the inclusion of Blake Hawksworth. Perhaps its some nostalgia from his days as a starter but even as a reliever he lacks anything resembling a true out pitch. His statistics in St. Louis were awful and buoyed by deceptive home run rate, strand rate and BABIP none of which are sustainable into the future. He’s a middling reliever on his good days and someone who doesn’t belong in the majors on his bad days. Essentially, he’s the new Kyle McClellan. – -azruavatar
As you can see from the rankings, I’m in between AZ and erik on Blake. He’s older than Ottavino, but he’s pitched well in Memphis and had some success in the bigs, no matter how flimsy. He’s in the long line for Brad Thompson’s job going forward. – Jeff Roman
Entries (RSS)
I still give K-mac the edge over Hawk…Kyle has an out pitch, he just has real trouble locating it at times
I still think Hawk can be a serviceable inning eating middle reliever
Chambers intrigues the heck out of me…I am really excited to see what time of season he has…where will he start out?
Yes! This series is great. Can’t wait for the rest.
Looking at his pitches, not his statistics, I was impressed by Hawk in his time in St. Louis. Most of his pitches were down around the knees and avoided the middle of the plate. plus, they had movement. He was seen as a potential top of the line starter before his parade of injuries. Maybe what he showed was a glimple of that potential.
the only real downside to his numbers in St. Louis was the BB/K ratio.
Hawksworth improved his K-rate at the end of the year and was throwing much harder than I expected him to. Maybe I’m in the minority but I think his K/9 will improve and his G/F rate should be solid.
I could have sworn i remember erik saying once he’d never consider someone 27 years old as a prospect.
huzzah for adron!
the good news is there’s really no wrong answers with our system unless you put jaime garcia 17th and miller 9th. reasonable arguments could be made for almost anybody to go anywhere.
so tom s, can I put Garcia 18th and Miller 19th? Just kidding, but I get what you are saying the talent level is down, but it is also fairly flat, there aren’t that many “stand out” prospects as we had last year. I’m taking a wait and see approach for some of the 09 draft players to possibly show us something unexpected but until then I will just be happy if our major league product stays competetive.
Looks like Wallace is going to Toronto now for Michael Phelps. Makes me feel good that another organization was willing to trade him. Toronto is piling up some nice prospects with the trades they are making recently.
Michael Phelphs?
How’s the Walrus in the pool?
Azru. I think I’m higher on both Hawk and Mclellan than you. #16 on a relatively weak prospect list for someone who has had some success in the majors seems low for Hawksworth. I live in Minnesota so I don’t get to see the TV games as much as most folks on this board but the times I saw him he seemed to have good command and placement of his pitches. I don’t think he’ll be as good going forward but I think he’s a major leaguer as of right now which would put him higher than 16 on my list.
Mclellan impresses me as genuinely talented and capable of improving with stamina over a season being his major question mark.
I’m glad to see that someone besides Sickels sees something in Kelly. His numbers in the low minors were uninspiring.
@jeff … probably more graceful than at 3B
I personally don’t think Hawksworth should be considered a prospect anymore. After this last season, he has proven that he can pitch well in the majors and is most likely going to be on the team this year. If he were to be ranked, I think I would rank up a lot higher than you guys did. He has proven he can be effective in the majors.
Erik-Ottavino has only pitched in Memphis one season, this past year. It will not be his 3rd time repeating Memphis this year.
@jeff I suspect he would win a cannonball contest.
Yes, cardsfan, Hawk showed he “can” be effective in the majors — if everything goes right. That’s the point about the low BABIP, home-run rate, etc.; a lot of stuff went right for him this year that is generally thought to be beyond a pitcher’s control. The fact that it is beyond his control, unfortunately, means that it is less likely to go right NEXT year. That’s the root of some of the pessimism, although there is certainly something to be said for a 94-mph fastball.
I’m curious about one thing, though: wasn’t Hawk on the major-league roster for long enough in 2009 that he’s not formally a rookie any more? “No longer a rookie” = “not a prospect” pretty well by definition in my book.
I think there’s some serious groupthink here on Samuel. I just don’t see it at all. He’s not particularly young for his level anymore, and despite his stuff, his control is truly abysmal. He doesn’t just need to “improve his control”, he needs to totally revamp it, and, at 24, struggling in AA, I just don’t see it. For me, Salas (whose struggles can at least be partly attributed to injury) is much more intriguing, as are Kelly and Bittle (who at least haven’t had the chance to fail yet).
I just don’t think Samuel is a prospect after this year. At all. That BB rate is just too big a chasm to overcome – even a reasonable improvement in that regard will leave him as an average relief pitcher, aged 25, in AA next season. So I just don’t see, abstruse comments about “upside” and “ceiling” aside, how Samuel can be in the top 20 at all.
I think I might’ve had Hawksworth at the ass end of my top 20 as well, but in retrospect I think I was wrong (and everyone but Azru is here). He’s 27 years old and profiles as the sort of arm you can pick up for the league minimum as a FAT player pretty much any off-season. I just don’t see how he’s got much upside left, although I suppose the GB rate is intriguing. When I thought about, I asked myself the question “is he better or does he project to be better than every pitcher available as a MiLFA or for the league minimum this year (even guys like Odalis Perez or Brad Thompson”. I think the answer’s probably “no”. He’s more or less the finished article and you could likely get a similar pitcher for the league minimum any year.
Of course, you may disagree, and may feel that his velocity and K-rates from the years when he was a genuine prospect may come back, but I can’t help but feel (like everyone, me included, who’re suddenly on the Stock bandwagon following a largely meaningless half-season of hitting in a league that he should be destroying anyhow, which must at least have some sub-conscious effect) you’re being swayed by his entirely un-sustainable numbers in the pen through August and September.
What kind of analysis goes into these picks or are they “rubber stamped” in per their draft selection number? I have looked at the 2009 stats for Samuel, Kozma, Reifer, Stock and Kelly….and there is nothing that I have seen that indicates them to be Prospects for St Louis in 2010. Stock was shown as the #4 prospect for the cardinals based upon what? His college wasn’t even very good. Cutler, Additon, Mulligan and King had far superior stats for 2009 and aren’t mentioned. You made some comments that indicate that some of the players shown didn’t do anything to deserve being on the list… but there they are…. and players that worked hard and produced good numbers were omitted. Top Prospects should be on Merit and Performance…not Draft selection. I think Ottavino had a great year, and I expect him to have an even better year in 2010. I hope the decision makers don’t promote according to this prospect list.
I was just going back and looking at the prospect lists and saw Kelly’s late comment. I didn’t write these rankings nor am I part of the blog, but I think I can answer some questions:
Draft position (or, to be more accurate, pre-draft scouting reports) probably only factors in for newly drafted prospects, simply because how they perform in pro ball can’t be evaluated cleanly because of small sample sizes and comparing pro stats to college stats is extremely unreliable. Rankings should reflect overall major league potential, and while a single season performance does influence evaluations, they do not override overall potential. Kelly has major league stuff (just not results), while Stock can actually make the majors as a catcher if he hits or as a fireballer reliever if he doesn’t hit (Erik actually had a great post about Stock’s college batting performance, I suggest you look it up), which is a rare built-in back-up plan for a prospect.
Age at respective level is another factor. AA and AAA are much different levels of competition than A ball, and a prospect who spends more time at the highest two levels of minor league ball will be valued more than a player at the lower levels, even if that player was more successful. The organization has aggressively pushed Kozma and Anderson, and they’re both at levels before players at their own age normally would be. Just because they had underwhelming seasons doesn’t destroy their value enough to bump them off the top 20. Keep this in mind about Stock’s problems at the plate in college–he was 17 in his freshman year (that, and he only had only 159 at bats during his three college years and his pro debut last season). Also, my impression is that a position player is considered more valuable than pitchers, and starting pitchers more valuable than relievers because of historic durability and success issues.
As for your potential snubs:
Charles Cutler—a Single A catching prospect at age 24 (as of this coming July). He did extremely well in his first full pro season last year at Quad Cities, but his batting average took a dip in 44 games at Palm Beach, dropping nearly 80 points. He has mid-range power (10 doubles in 40 hits and 146 ABs, but only 1 HR). His defense and handling of pitchers apparently needs work (he’s already seen playing time in the outfield, and Goold said he’s “among the group of catchers who are hitters and are learning to be better catchers” when he did his “meet the invitees” blog entry), which makes him a lesser version of Bryan Anderson who hasn’t graduated to AA yet. He’s a long way off, and far from being a top 20 guy, especially when he’s behind Tony Cruz.
Casey Mulligan—a so-far successful converted catcher to reliever, but with less velocity than Motte and shaky command (his BB per 9 innings was 5.31 in 20 innings in Springfield and 3.86 in 28 innings in Palm Beach, which is worrisome for a reliever). He’s also a 23-year-old who hasn’t had a full season at AA yet.
Nick Addison—a soft-tossing lefty starter who seems to be on a good track, making it to Springfield for 8 games last season at age 21. He could be the next Bob Tweksbury…or the next P.J. Walters. As with most soft-tossers, the real question is whether he can sustain his success at the top two minor league levels (no, 8 starts in two months is not a good sample). He’ll need to have a succesfull full season at Springfield before he’ll probably be considered a top 20 prospect, which is how Walters landed on their 2008 rankings at no. 17 but fell off afterwards. Also…note that Additon had arm trouble last season, which isn’t a good indicator for durability, especially when you’re a soft-tossing starter.
Blake King—a righty reliever with major command issues (6.87 BB/9 at Palm Beach last season). King also just made Springfield for the first time last season after being in the minors since 2006 (he’ll be 23 in a few weeks). In his three appearances, he got killed. A long, long shot prospect who needs to turn it around soon or he’ll end up like Brad Furnish—released.
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