Draft position (or, to be more accurate, pre-draft scouting reports) probably only factors in for newly drafted prospects, simply because how they perform in pro ball can’t be evaluated cleanly because of small sample sizes and comparing pro stats to college stats is extremely unreliable. Rankings should reflect overall major league potential, and while a single season performance does influence evaluations, they do not override overall potential. Kelly has major league stuff (just not results), while Stock can actually make the majors as a catcher if he hits or as a fireballer reliever if he doesn’t hit (Erik actually had a great post about Stock’s college batting performance, I suggest you look it up), which is a rare built-in back-up plan for a prospect.

Age at respective level is another factor. AA and AAA are much different levels of competition than A ball, and a prospect who spends more time at the highest two levels of minor league ball will be valued more than a player at the lower levels, even if that player was more successful. The organization has aggressively pushed Kozma and Anderson, and they’re both at levels before players at their own age normally would be. Just because they had underwhelming seasons doesn’t destroy their value enough to bump them off the top 20. Keep this in mind about Stock’s problems at the plate in college–he was 17 in his freshman year (that, and he only had only 159 at bats during his three college years and his pro debut last season). Also, my impression is that a position player is considered more valuable than pitchers, and starting pitchers more valuable than relievers because of historic durability and success issues.

As for your potential snubs:

Charles Cutler—a Single A catching prospect at age 24 (as of this coming July). He did extremely well in his first full pro season last year at Quad Cities, but his batting average took a dip in 44 games at Palm Beach, dropping nearly 80 points. He has mid-range power (10 doubles in 40 hits and 146 ABs, but only 1 HR). His defense and handling of pitchers apparently needs work (he’s already seen playing time in the outfield, and Goold said he’s “among the group of catchers who are hitters and are learning to be better catchers” when he did his “meet the invitees” blog entry), which makes him a lesser version of Bryan Anderson who hasn’t graduated to AA yet. He’s a long way off, and far from being a top 20 guy, especially when he’s behind Tony Cruz.

Casey Mulligan—a so-far successful converted catcher to reliever, but with less velocity than Motte and shaky command (his BB per 9 innings was 5.31 in 20 innings in Springfield and 3.86 in 28 innings in Palm Beach, which is worrisome for a reliever). He’s also a 23-year-old who hasn’t had a full season at AA yet.

Nick Addison—a soft-tossing lefty starter who seems to be on a good track, making it to Springfield for 8 games last season at age 21. He could be the next Bob Tweksbury…or the next P.J. Walters. As with most soft-tossers, the real question is whether he can sustain his success at the top two minor league levels (no, 8 starts in two months is not a good sample). He’ll need to have a succesfull full season at Springfield before he’ll probably be considered a top 20 prospect, which is how Walters landed on their 2008 rankings at no. 17 but fell off afterwards. Also…note that Additon had arm trouble last season, which isn’t a good indicator for durability, especially when you’re a soft-tossing starter.

Blake King—a righty reliever with major command issues (6.87 BB/9 at Palm Beach last season). King also just made Springfield for the first time last season after being in the minors since 2006 (he’ll be 23 in a few weeks). In his three appearances, he got killed. A long, long shot prospect who needs to turn it around soon or he’ll end up like Brad Furnish—released.

I just don’t think Samuel is a prospect after this year. At all. That BB rate is just too big a chasm to overcome – even a reasonable improvement in that regard will leave him as an average relief pitcher, aged 25, in AA next season. So I just don’t see, abstruse comments about “upside” and “ceiling” aside, how Samuel can be in the top 20 at all.

I think I might’ve had Hawksworth at the ass end of my top 20 as well, but in retrospect I think I was wrong (and everyone but Azru is here). He’s 27 years old and profiles as the sort of arm you can pick up for the league minimum as a FAT player pretty much any off-season. I just don’t see how he’s got much upside left, although I suppose the GB rate is intriguing. When I thought about, I asked myself the question “is he better or does he project to be better than every pitcher available as a MiLFA or for the league minimum this year (even guys like Odalis Perez or Brad Thompson”. I think the answer’s probably “no”. He’s more or less the finished article and you could likely get a similar pitcher for the league minimum any year.

Of course, you may disagree, and may feel that his velocity and K-rates from the years when he was a genuine prospect may come back, but I can’t help but feel (like everyone, me included, who’re suddenly on the Stock bandwagon following a largely meaningless half-season of hitting in a league that he should be destroying anyhow, which must at least have some sub-conscious effect) you’re being swayed by his entirely un-sustainable numbers in the pen through August and September.

I’m curious about one thing, though: wasn’t Hawk on the major-league roster for long enough in 2009 that he’s not formally a rookie any more? “No longer a rookie” = “not a prospect” pretty well by definition in my book.

Erik-Ottavino has only pitched in Memphis one season, this past year. It will not be his 3rd time repeating Memphis this year.

How’s the Walrus in the pool?