Concluding the series comes a somewhat unsurprising top 5.  This is where the most clarity and consensus exists but it’s also includes a different caliber of player than in some of the past seasons after the Cardinals graduate and traded a significant amount of the upper echelon of their farm system.

#5. Eduardo Sanchez
Age – 21
Stats
Individual Rankings - azruavatar – 4, Jeff Roman – 5, erik – 6
Player Comments -

Chris Perez got ranked highly for years because of his pure stuff.  Sanchez combines excellent stuff with the best command the organization has seen from someone featuring a fastball over 95 and a second pitch. (Jason Motte pre-STL had excellent command.)  He’s the only reliever in the system that can reliably pound the strike zone with two plus pitches. -azruavatar

Great stuff plus great command at both Memphis and Springfield will vault you up the rankings quickly.  He’s got two plus pitches and experience and success in the 9th inning. – Jeff Roman

Sanchez has all the ingredients needed to be an effective high leverage reliever. -erik

#4. Lance Lynn
Age – 23
Stats
Individual Rankings – azruavatar – 6, Jeff Roman – 4, erik – 4
Player Comments -

If I had better options, I’d have ranked Lynn lower but the Cardinals’ farm system is thin at the top.  He lacks a true out pitch and gets most of his high marks because analysts like his “bulldog demeanor”. Being fierce on the mound doesn’t record outs though. -azruavatar

Lance Lynn’s upside is around a 3rd starter, and when you are talking 3rd starters at #4, that’s a thin system.  That’s not a knock on Lynn as Lynn is solid, but nothing spectacular.  Lynn should move quickly through the Cards system and be an innings eater in the majors. -Jeff Roman

Lynn’s ceiling appears to be that of a league average innings muncher (LAIM). That’s not a knock, the going rate for an average pitcher on the free agent market  is $6-9M per year these days. At least I think so, not many of them have signed yet this year…I’m thinking of Doug Davis, Jon Garland, et al. -erik

#3. Daryl Jones
Age – 23
Stats
Individual Rankings – azruavatar – 3, Jeff Roman – 3, erik – 3
Player Comments –

He’ll be criticized for his lack of power but the reality is that he was never expected to be a 30+ HR type of player.  He’s still got the chance to be someone who laces doubles and triples around the field and relies on their speed to make up for their raw strength.  Injuries derailed his 2009 season and he’s reaching the point where lost years are no longer an option. -azruavatar

DJ Tools is a player who can put together numbers although he hasn’t been able to escape the injury bug.  He’s definitely a player to look out for as he could either justify his high ranking or fall way behind the pack this season. -Jeff Roman

Scouts that saw DJ in 2008 thought he was a major league regular. Scouts that saw DJ in 2009 thought he was a 4th OF. What happened? Injuries that slowed him down, and he had a bit of a different swing. Two things that are far beyond unfixable. His batting eye, speed and range in left field make up for his inability to hit for a lot of power. -erik

#2. Jaime Garcia
Age – 23
Stats
Individual Rankings – azruavatar – 2, Jeff Roman – 2, erik – 2
Player Comments –

It’s hard not to get excited about Garcia’s performance returning from Tommy John surgery.  He showed no loss in velocity or the inconsistent command that generally plagues pitchers after this surgery.  There’s little reason to think he can’t be a starter in the major leagues this year but the Cardinals will likely control his innings by starting him in AAA. -azruavatar

It’s hard to remember the Jaime is only 23.  The Cards are taking it slow with him and rightly so after TJ surgery.  Another season in Memphis wouldn’t be the worst thing in the world for Jaime, but if he’s healthy, look for him to be one of the first pitchers to get the call if injury strikes the bullpen or the rotation.  He’s lefty, has great command and offspeed pitches to control righties. He just needs to stay healthy. -Jeff Roman

There’s very little not to like about Garcia. He’s left-handed, gets gobs of groundballs and misses more than his fair share of bats. He’s young and showing no ill-effects from Tommy John surgery.The Cardinals should take it slow with Garcia. Once he passes the durability test, he’s golden. -erik

#1. Shelby Miller
Age – 19
Stats
Individual Rankings – azruavatar – 1, Jeff Roman – 1, erik – 1
Player Comments –

There isn’t anyone in the system that has the upside of Miller.  If everything were to work out, he could be a 4-5 WAR type of starter (staff ace).  There just aren’t any other players like that.  The risk of failure looms large though. -azruavatar

Shelby is up here for his upside.  As AZ says, he’s a pitcher drafted out of high school, so the bust chance will always loom over him until he makes a major league rotation.  He’s still young and has time to make it.  The Cards have rushed some of their young 1st round picks (Kozma) but should give Miller a chance to both work through his struggles and experience success. -Jeff Roman

High-risk, high-reward starter. The failure rate of high school pitchers is mighty high. But the payoffs can be huge, and Miller has huge-payoff stuff. I can’t wait to track his progress this upcoming season. -erik

This entry was posted on Tuesday, December 22nd, 2009 at 7:14 am and is filed under Prospect rankings. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.