The Cardinals have most of their 2010 bullpen penciled in I would imagine. Ryan Franklin to close out games. Jason Motte to setup from the right side. Trevor Miller and Dennys Reyes to retire lefties. Kyle McClellan and Blake Hawksworth as holdovers. Then there’s a plethora of guys to fight it out for that last spot – Mitchell Boggs, Rule V Draftee Ben Jukich and “Ridin’ that 2006 Wave” Josh Kinney.
There’s a couple other names that could insert themselves into the discussion. Starters like PJ Walters or Adam Ottavino likely will get a look in Spring Training. Eduardo Sanchez certainly made some noise towards the end of 2009 in Springfield and there are live arms littered through the system with Francisco Samuel being at the top of that list.
One name that doesn’t come up as often as it should is Pete Parise.
Parise isn’t the sexy choice for a prospect graduating to the majors. He doesn’t strike out many hitters; he was signed as an undrafted free agent. Parise isn’t flashy in the way that Mitchell Boggs has a live fastball or Josh Kinney has a sick slider or Ben Jukich is stolen property. Instead, Parise gets by on the Dave Duncan recipie for success when your stuff is average: 1) Throw strikes. 2) Get groundouts.
In 2008, Luke Gregerson threw 75 innings at Springfield. What made him standout was not just the 3:1 K rate with 78 punchouts but the combination of that with a 54% groundball rate. That’s a string tendency towards groundouts. Brad Thompson‘s Memphis to St. Louis shuttle has been predicated on groundouts as well. In both 2009 and 2008 he averaged 54% between both levels.
If you set the cutoff at 20 IP, Pete Parise would rank 4th in groundball rate for the PCL with 61%. He split his time between Memphis and Springfield in 2009 pitching 34.2 and 40.2 innings, respectively. He struck out around 18% of the batters he faced (approx. 6.6 K per 9IP) and maintained a 2:1 K:BB ratio. His walk numbers don’t display superb command but command that’s servicable when you are generating groundballs 56% of the time.
The 40-man roster situation works against Parise has he doesn’t need to be protected unlike others (Boggs, Jukich, Kinney, Tyler Norrick, Ottavino, Walters, etc.) but it certainly isn’t outside the realm of possibility that he could make a strong showing in 2010. Even in the event that he doesn’t make the team, he’s worth keeping a close eye on. He’s unlikely to work the late innings in Memphis where Eduardo Sanchez and Francisco Samuel could start the year but if he continues to generate groundballs, he’ll get his shot in the near future.
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I could see him being a guy that rides the Memphis shuttle either this year or next. He seems like the kind of guy that is a low ceiling, high floor, we can’t really screw you up by messing with you, guy that would be perfect for it.
What about Jamie? Coming back from surgery the organization might want to limit his innings and put him on the Wano path to the 2011 rotation.
Agreed, steves (and AZ). I think 2011 is more likely as an arrival date for the inbound flight of the Memphis shuttle than 2010, however, precisely because he isn’t rule-5 eligible yet. There may be disincentive to start his service-time/arbitration clock unnecessarily this year.
It’s not just ground balls, it’s lack of line drives. His 3.5% LD rate at Memphis was light years ahead of any other pitcher in the minors. (If I remember correctly – cant find the article – the league avg was around 14% and the next best pitcher in the league was around 9%) Probably unsustainable but so low it would be improbable for it to be only luck.
Talking about Mortensen, if you want to see his near statistical clone for his first year check out Scott Schneider’s numbers at Batavia and QC. Remember also that Schneider was a year younger when putting up his Mortensen- esque numbers. Can he sustain it? I don’t know but the statistical comparison is scary (in a good way).
Jukich….stolen property…then by all means please return the 27 year old, soft-tosser, who couldn’t even make the Reds let alone dominate AAA, back to his rightful owner. Normally a rule 5 will be returned to his previous team, but I predict that Jocketty will let us keep this AAAA old-timer and his contract. He’ll be in the starting rotation in Memphis wasting the assignments that should go to a legitimate prospect.
As for Pete Parise, you can’t deny he’s put himself on the prospect map. You gotta like someone who’s beaten all the odds so far. He’s made the organization sit up and take notice so all the power to him. We’ll see him in Cardinal red in 2011.
Eccard, if you have access to the Baseball America website, in the December 3rd podcast that is currently posted, two of their writers, I believe it was Manuel and Eddy, had a positive discussion about Jukich PRIOR to the Rule 5 draft, as a possibly good candidate to be selected and as a left handed pitcher that could help a major league team in 2010.
I will be you a “you were right” that either Jukich makes the Cards 25 man roster, is taken back by the Reds, or picked up by another team on the mandatory waivers he would have to pass through before the Cards can send him to AAA. Jockety can not afford to let Mo grab (and keep) a free player with ANY chance of helping the Cards, and vice versa for Mo. The macho embarassment would be too great for either GM.
I’ve loved Garcia’s talents right from the start, but what to do with him this year is the million dollar question CC. I’d love to see him in the rotation, but there’s not a chance in hell he can maintain his stamina for a full year. On another site I proposed that the Cards use their tried and true piggyback system for this one position. Let Garcia start for 4 or 5 innings and then put your second starter in for the rest. This would both allow Jaime to build up his strength and stamina while helping the team. Secondly, if your second guy is Boggs or McClellan (righties), it throws a wrench into the plans of the opposition. So strategically it works too. The second option, as a starter is to sign one of the top rehabbing pitchers to an incentive contract and have him alternate with Garcia. This would allow both to come back slowly with lower risk of reinjury and if one of the others gets an injury late in the season, one of these two could move into that spot smoothly. The third option of course is to put him in the bullpen, but this wouldn’t get him consistent work to build up his S & S. I’m not for that option. Lastly you could send him to start in Memphis, but if he proves ready in Spring training I say give him a shot, but there is no doubt you have to bring him along slowly or he hits a wall and we have to shut him down. I believe Carp, Waino, Lohse & Penny will go deep into a lot of games so we’ll have that luxury of choosing options 1 or 2. Where do you stand on this issue CC?
I think Garia can get stamina (if not strength) in the Spring. Heck, he was throwing 6 inning games after rehab last year. (I am not one who believe major league games stress an arm more than minor league ones do). I’ve seen analysis that shows Garcia would only start 22 or so games all year if we skipped him on off days. If he wins the spot, I say let him pitch those 22 starts. If later in the year it looks like he might get too many innings, deal with it then.
“If later in the year it looks like he might get too many innings, deal with it then.” Ah, but CC, it’s later in the year that we’ll NEED him to get innings, as the other starters tire and the schedule becomes both dense and (hopefully) important — not to mention the hope that he’ll be starting a game or three in October (and that through merit rather than the cratering of the #3 and #4 starters). The seeds of late-season and post-season success get planted in the spring, just like other seeds.
CC, I guess you have a little bit of riverboat gambler in you. If 22 starts was all he’d have to make I think I could live with that, providing they were evenly spread out. If not then give him a few extra vacation days. Today’s pitchers aren’t like Bert Blyleven, Nolan Ryan or Jack Morris. They need pampering to get through the season.
Hopefully Garcia has a long productive career ahead with us so I’m not sure I’d push the envelop and screw that up. Any way you slice it, it’s ‘kid gloves’ for this year.
Gruntosaurus, I’m not sure Garcia would get a post-season start this year ahead of Lohse or Penny, but if he outperforms them…..maybe. Lohse is a career #5 starter and Penny is a Kindersurprise. I’m of the same school of thinking as you, I want Jaime peeking in September, not shutting down.
You could start dialing Garcia back in July if necessary (wouldn’t have to wait until Sept) if it looks like his innings were piling up.
I don’t consider it gambling at all. Most who are afraid of Garcia’s work load have no trouble with him starting in Memphis – I just don’t differentiate so much between the two.
The thing that scares me about the Garcia/Boggs tandem idea is I don’t want to give Tony any excuse to carry 13 pitchers!
Does Tony ever need an excuse other then to prove he’s so much smarter then everyone else??? We all know Larussa wants to cement his place in baseball history by being considered a revolutionary; ergo the pitcher bats eight. TLR is so intend on proving his genius he ends up out-smarting himself a lot of times. Just my opinion.
I’m in agreement with you on Garcia when it comes to starting in the minors or majors. Hello!! He’s still throwing pitches, albeit he may be more aggressive in the minors because of the lesser talent and therefore throw fewer pitches. In theory of course. Yes his arm will tire either way, there is no discernable difference in my opinion. The question is; is he ready for the majors and I think most everyone’s in agreement that he is. Spring training’s right around the corner. Let’s give him a shot.
Personally, I’d rather see Senor G start the year in St. Louis than in Memphis — but on a carefully controlled work load, and that, to me, takes precedence over where he plays, at least at the beginning of the year. Unlike Memphis, St. Louis doesn’t have it as a mission to groom players for the next higher level (although you wonder why Pujols hasn’t been promoted to the All-Milky Way League yet), and there is therefore no counterbalance against the pressure to run a pitcher out there until his arm falls off, if doing so helps the team win. Can his work load be “carefully controlled” while LaDuncan are doing everything possible to win every single game? I’m dubious.
[...] Parise – We’ve discussed him recently here. An undrafted free agent who played CF before converting to the mound. His groundball [...]
Just wondering what is next for Parise, after surgery? Will he even be able to pitch again?