Archive for December, 2009

In the AAA phase of the Rule 5 draft, the Cardinals select LHP Matt Meyer from the Cleveland organization.

He bounced across 3 levels in 2009, getting as high as AAA.

He has a career 9.7 K/9 rate and 4.9 BB/9 rate in the minors.

Here’s a scouting report on him from Indians Prospect Insider.

Meyer throws from a sidearm three-quarters arm slot with a fastball that has good tailing action and consistently sits at 91-92 MPH topping out as high as 93 MPH. He complements it with a deceptive slider that he has tightened up to where it is more of a power slider sitting in the 81-84 MPH range. His slider is the pitch he has the most confidence in and will throw in any count, and when he needs to reach back for a big pitch or throw a quality strike, the slider more times than not is what he relies on. In his short minor league career he has shown the ability to pile up strikeouts (career 10.2 K/9), but he also piles up the walks (career 4.9 BB/9). He has had some trouble with right-handers, but is very tough on lefties and it is why many of the Indians top decision-makers project him as a lefty specialist down the road.

After the jump is a video of Matt:

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After such a good article on Mike Parisi’s stuff, it was inevitable that something would befall Parisi and it did as the hated Cubs selected Parisi in the first round of the Rule 5 draft.

Now, just as a refresher, Mike has to stay on the Cubs 25 man major league roster all season or he will be sold back to the Cardinals for $25,000.

Brian Walton has the list of Cardinals that are Rule 5 eligible.

Joe Strauss tweets ” Cardinals apparently vulnerable to losing two “prospects” in … Rule 5. One familiar; one not.

Jonathan Mayo and John Manuel have some names of interest.

This thread in Primate Land has lot of links to other players of interest.

My prediction is the Cardinals draft nobody, although if they could get a RH reliever with some upside, I don’t see what’s the harm in taking a shot. I know the club would like to get a LH hitting outfielder, but I don’t think it’s a big priority with Allen Craig, Joe Mather and Jon Jay all vying for 4th/5th OF jobs with the big club. And I don’t have a good idea who Strauss is referring to that the team could lose. McCormick has perceived upside, I could see a team taking  a shot on him. Mike Parisi maybe could be a fit as a swingman. No idea who the mystery man could be. Maybe Amaury Marti? …..

Just kidding.

I say if all else fails, draft Disco Hayes. If he fails as a ROOGY, he could work for Sig in the analytical department.

Hey gang. This is piece one in a series from my co-pilot at PAH9, Steve Sommer. You can also read up on some of Steve’s other work at his old blog at StL Sports Scene.  You can also follow him on twitter @Steve_Sommer.

With the introduction of pitch f/x data at various AFL locations, the prospect geek has at his/her disposal data that can be used to answer questions like

• What does Prospect A’s stuff look like?
• How does Prospect B get by on limited stuff?
• Who does Prospect C resemble?

This post will investigate those, and similar types of questions for Mike Parisi.

Let’s start out with a simple summary table of his stuff and a table of MLB/AFL averages for comparison.

The MLB/AFL table contains physical data (movement and velocity) based on a Harry Pavlidis post at BtB and results data (Whiff and Slgcon) based on AFL data. Whiff is the number of swings and misses divided by the number of swings and Slgcon is TB on balls in play/ball in play. A couple things from the table jump out at me immediately

• Parisi is at or below average in getting swings and misses when compared to his AFL counterparts, but has managed to keep his Slgcon down.
• His fastball is a tick below average.
• He has no pitches that have movement that stands out. Most are right around average.

I’ll tackle the 2nd point first, and then address the 1st and 3rd at the same time. With regards to his fastball being below average in velocity, I’d like to point out that not all 90 mph fastballs are created equal. Take Parisi and Scott Gorgen (the subject of a futute post). Both average a shade over 90 mph, but their distributions of velocities differ as the following chart illustrates

Gorgen never really gets above average, but Parisi can touch 93. Clearly velocity alone doesn’t mean anything, but it is nice to know that Parisi has some in the tank if need be.

Now on to the other two points. Parisi is having some success this AFL season, but all signs point to is not being because of over powering stuff (low whiff, not much movement, etc.). One potential explanation is that he’s following Dave Duncan’s philosophy. Let’s see if the data supports that case.

First a table showing his batted ball profile by pitch

So yes, Parisi is having success with the ground ball, especially with his fastball. His GB rate of 60% is much better than the AFL average for fastballs (~45%). How then, without seemingly great downward movement, is Parisi generating so many GBs? The answer is in the following location chart

When Parisi keeps the ball down, his AFL opposition pounded it into the ground. It seems as though Parisi’s strategy is in line with organizational thought (or at least TLR, DD thought). Keep the ball down, don’t worry about missing bats, and generate ground balls. With that being said, I’d think that Parisi might have a good shot at replacing Brad Thompson in a swingman/mop-up role.

Next up (assuming the FR guys don’t kick me out after this first attempt) is a look at the other starter the Cards sent to the AFL, the aforementioned Scott Gorgen.

This video of Descalso comes courtesy of Adam Foster of Project Prospect.

Sean Smith has gone a step ahead of all the defensive projections we’ve seen out there by including minor leaguers. He’s been providing minorleaguesplits.com with total zone numbers. Here’s an article on how these numbers are translated. I’m sure they are projected similarly to how others are done, with weighting several years of data.

Here’s the numbers for the Cardinals’ minor leaguers.

Name
POS
Runs


DeJesus,   Antonio
OF
11


Jay, Jonathan
OF
10


Robinson, Shane
OF
9


Jones, Daryl
OF
4


Henley, Tyler
OF
2


Rapoport, James
CF
1


Luna, Aaron
OF
1


Freese, David
3B
0


Craig, Allen
OF
0







Mather, Joe
OF
-1


Gotay, Ruben
3B
-2


Shorey, Mark
OF
-2


Hamilton, Mark
1B
-3


Buckman, Brandon
1B
-3


Arburr, Matthew
1B
-3


Stavinoha, Nick
OF
-3


Solano, Donovan
3B
-4


Kozma, Peter
SS
-4


Brown, Andrew
1B
-5


Descalso, Daniel
2B
-5


Greene, Tyler
SS
-5







Folli, Mike
3B
-6


Pagnozzi, Matt
C
-6


Cruz, Tony
C
-7


Derba, Nick
C
-7


Sedbrook, Colt
2B
-10


Rowlett, Casey
2B
-10


Hoffpauir, Jarrett
2B
-11


Anderson, Bryan
C
-12


Hill, Steven
C
-14

Rally also has his own method for evaluating catcher defense, which is just gravy. The usual caveats apply when looking at these numbers, remember – when in doubt, ask a scout.

Bryan Anderson projects to be terrible. We knew he was bad, but now we have at least one projection on how bad he’d actually be. Zounds. Pagnozzi’s defensive reputation: overrated.

On the positive, Jon Jay, Shane Robinson and David DeJesus come out looking quite good. All of them could hold their own at center field if need be. Jon Jay’s best tool is his bat, or so we’ve long been told, but he has some excellent range. I really like his chances to catch on with the big club this year.  Unfortunately Robinson and DeJesus don’t have the offensive capability to be a lot better than replacement level at this point, unlike Jay, who should be a solid 4th OF.

Bad news for Tyler Henley. His bat profiles much, much better in center, but he projects a bit to be just a little better than average defensively at the corner spots.

Allen Craig and David Freese both project at 0. This is good news for Craig. On the other hand, Freese has put together some solid #’s in total zone, but apparently the translations for infielders are a bit tough. I’ve seen scouting reports that say he’s good, and I’ve also heard he’s average at worst, so this very well could be an accurate projection.

It’s easy to see why the club let Jarrett Hoffpauir go.

Colt Sedbrook won BA’s equivalent of a Gold Glove at 2B. Looks like minor league managers and coaches are as good at handing out these awards as their major league counterparts.

Alternate Title: Why the Cardinals re-signed Jason LaRue

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Selected just two spots after Colby Rasmus in the 2005 draft, Tyler Greene has steadily moved his way through the farm system.  Often regarded as something of a raw college talent who had some bad metal bat tendencies, Greene struggled to make consistent contact through the minors and did little to offset that with plate discipline.  Defensive metrics for the minors show Greene having everything from slightly below average seasons to well above average ones.  His defense is generally regarded as above average for a shortstop and he exhibits good range and a strong arm.

Something clicked for Greene last season though and it seems that it’s been somewhat overlooked. Read the rest of this entry »