Because it’s a New Year and people like lists.
1). Shelby Miller lives up to the expectation – Miller may not be the unanimous number 1 prospect within the system (I expect a few Daryl Jones and Jaime Garcia’s to appear) but he’s undoubtedly the player with the most upside. Bringing a Texas-sized fastball and some questionable secondary stuff, the organization pinned it’s hopes on Miller as their first true ace pitching prospect selected under Jeff Luhnow. If Miller has a wretched 2010, or his fastball turns out to be more Iowa-sized, it’s a real blow to the farm system.
2). Daryl Jones breaks out – 2008 was a great year for Jones. 2009 was not so great. Jones is one of the few high level hitting prospects in the Cardinals system that still has a chance of being an impact player. He’s part of a crowded field of contenders right now including names like Tyler Henley, Allen Craig, Jon Jay, etc. If Jones doesn’t put up some impressive numbers at Memphis this year (regardless of where he starts 2010), it will be a huge blow to the perception as him as a player.
3). The Cardinals learn how to teach command – The Cardinals seem to have an ongoing problem with taming some of the more talented arms in the system. Guys like Adam Ottavino, Francisco Samuel, Adam Reifer, etc consistently flash above average stuff with sometimes wretched command. If the respective coaching staffs can find that magic bullet for even just one of those players it would be a huge success.
4). Eduardo Sanchez turns into what Chris Perez was supposed to be – Sanchez appears to be the one glimmer of hope internally should the big league bullpen fail. The options from AAA can plug in some little leaks (Pete Parise, Fernando Salas) but should the boat capsize, i.e. Jason Motte or Ryan Franklin go belly up, Eduardo Sanchez is the only arm the Cardinals have that fits that role. He displayed a superb strikeout-to-walk ratio built on not only a high-K rate but also a low-BB rate. His pure stuff isn’t what Chris Perez’s was but his command is better and he’s our last, best hope at the moment to be a stopper.
5). A big draft budget – The Cardinals will have some significant opportunities to add talent via the draft this year. With the failed signing of Wagner Mateo ($3 million) and the additional supplemental draft picks that come from Mark DeRosa and Joel Pineiro, the Cardinals will likely have 4 of the top 75 picks in 2010. While they won’t have an exceptionally early pick (25th overall), they’ll have a lot of mid round picks clustered together. The Cardinals signed the most picks in 2009 (43) with just the 17th largest draft budget*. Given the continued turnover in the system as the team more aggresively releases players not performing and promoting players quickly up the ladder, the Cardinals are likely to continue this pattern of signing a high volume of players. Combine that approach with additional first round picks and the Cardinals will need more dollars to acquire the kind of impact talent required to revitalize the system.
*Wagner Mateo skews this evaluation of the teams overall “draft” money spent.
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Outside of #1, which has to happen, I am most hopeful for #4. Having a controlled power reliever in the high minors(or even majors) is crucial to having a balanced budget. I hope he dominates AAA this year, gets called up in Septmember(hoping we won’t need him til then), and starts 2011 as our closer.
How does Mateo affect the picks we get in the draft or what the draft budget was? Wasn’t he an international free agent
The Mateo effect is indirect, if it exists: reserving $3M for Mateo might have reduced the availability of that money to sign blue-chippers from the draft. That could have created pressure to go (after Miller was drafted #1) for “signability” drafts who didn’t have the high upside but also weren’t asking for over-slot money. Thing is, though, there’s little evidence that the team actually drafted that way, nor is it highly credible that they knew on draft day that they were going to have to hold onto that $3M — a (red) bird in the hand, and all that.
If I understand AZ’s point correctly, it’s that the team should now be prepared to spend big if an opportunity presents itself among the several high choices they’ll have. Mateo’s unspent $3M may count as 2009 money for budget purposes, but it’s still going to be available (sort of) in 2010. If somebody (Porcello) falls to the 25th draft slot (Porcello) because of signability concerns (Porcello), the team (Porcello) should be able to open its wallet (Porcello) to overcome those concerns (Porcello) and make a signing coup (PORCELLO!).
Hm. Did a subliminal message creep into that last paragraph? Wonder how that happened…
Right — that’s the point I’m driving at. Them being 17th in draft dollars is not necessarily descriptive of the budget they had for amateur player procurement. I didn’t want to unfairly portray their activities in last year’s draft given the Mateo signing and subsequent voiding.
I believe that the team has indicated their draft & international budgets are separate in the past . . . but I remain skeptical of to what degree they mean by that.
Nice pipe dream on a cold winter day (especially for a robot!).
I’m really hoping for #2 and #4.
Five is also important particularly with the extra picks. Number one needs to happen but noone should jump off a cliff if it takes a couple seasons.
Why would one wish for Sanchez to be our closer in 2011? – that will mean that Franklin has struggled and I dont wish that.
I would take #2 (Jones) and make it similar to #3 and ask for a system wide power surge as my hope. That would specifically include Jones and Anderson but the key to Descalso is some level of power as well and also with several of the OF guys at AA/AAA.
i don’t hope franklin struggles…i do hope that sanchez proves he is better by 2011
I really feel that this will be Ottavino’s year for excellence. His control has greatly improved as so have his stats. I also feel that Cutler, Mulligan, King and Samuel will have banner years. Cutler has shown a every level he has played that he can field and hit….Mulligan had a great 2009 and should only get better…..King and Samuel are “un-hittable” and I believe they will improve their control issues. Samuel had a great 2008 and he will find it again….King had great stats in 2009, except for too many walks, but he was shown to have the best slider in the organization, and I believe he will improve on his fastball control.
random link: http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/pitching-prospects-who-might-be-keepers/
harry pavlidis dives for pearls in the ocean of prospects – that may just be the worst metaphor i have put to paper (or e-paper, whatever) since high school. i could just rewrite this whole paragraph, but there it is.
anyway, blake hawksworth gets some love. read it or don’t.
Kelly, when you say Cutler has shown he can field – what is your evidence? I have not heard great things about his catching ability. I haven’t heard anything about his OF play but usually ex-catchers aren’t great there and his hitting would have to pick up even more for his bat to play there.
Sorta related question…how do other farm systems match up with the Cardinals in terms of solving control problems? Is it really a organizational problem, or is it simply one of those things that keeps a vast majority of draft picks (given the amount taken by teams each year) from ever making the majors?
Number five should be a given with the Holliday signing. It’s more of a crap shoot than paying established players but, if they’re going to stay competitive and it seems they intend to, spending on the farm system is the only way to do it without spending way more on salaries.
As far as what we get out of what we’ve got I’ll predict that most of our “pearls” will be surprises. Two wild hare predictions: 1. John Jay will be a better major league hitter than he’s shown and will become a valuable reserve this year. 2. Adam Ottavino will be the Cardinals’ closer by August. I know, too many fond memories of Todd Worrell but I wanted to get this out there just in case it happens.
Will the need to fill holes cheaply around Holliday and Pujols result in the Cards drafting lower upside but closer to the majors players? — as if they don’t do that enough already!
Instead of the Cardinals have an inability to teach command to young pitchers, could the real problem be, that good to great command is something that a pitcher is most likely born with, and the Cardinals simply don’t know how to draft pitchers?
Cutler is a catcher…not an outfielder. He was player of the year in 2009 at Quad Cities and had a.99% fielding percentage. He was promoted to Florida to help improve the hitting problems in Jupiter, and he hit for a 317 average in 2009. I followed every game in Florida and he stood out most of the time.
I also feel like players that are signed by the Cardinals, either as pitchers or position players have natural talent, but they must work harder than the competition to improve and fine tune their skills. Control can be improved for pitchers with hard work and good pointers from the instructors that work with the players. The same holds true for fielding and hitting. The cardinals have a good group of young pitchers and several of them will advance to the Majors barring injury.
Great point, cariocacardinal. I fear that as well. In facilitating a Pujols signing and with Holiday’s contract the Cards strategy may be to draft low upside players who project to graduate to the majors quickly. This would be a mistake IMO but could be an approach nonetheless.
Since things are kind of slow around here lately, I just have a few questions and thoughts regarding the Dominican signings. What are your thoughts on Gabriel Hernandez. He was a Dominican signing last year and in the “July 2nd Bonus Babies” section it says he is a ++ defender, switch hitter, and singles hitter. I looked at his stats from the DSL, and they looked pretty good. .308 avg, 26 SBs, 4 CS, and then I saw one stat that really stuck out; 32 Errors. Is this a typo by MiLB.com or did he really have 32 errors in 67 games? I’d have to rethink the ++ defender thing if that is correct. Also Javier Avendano has put up good numbers in the GCL and VSL. I’m trying to find some hidden talent in our system which appears to have very little. Also, what do you think will become of the million dollar man, Roberto De La Cruz? He’s not looking good so far. And also, did we sign anyone from the Dominican this year or did we just give up after Mateo was supposed to be signed?
It was also my understanding that Hernandez was signed for his defensive talents. The errors don’t bother me as he is 17 and is probably not playing on the best infields in the DSL. I liked his offensive stats too but two caveats. One is that he fell off after a great start. The other is that there were a lot of players who had great offensive stats in the DSL last year. Then there is the usual warning that DSL stats “can’t be taken too seriously” though I’m not sure what that means. These are prospects, some in their 20′s, who are being paid something for playing baseball so I’ve got to think that the competition would be better than high school and maybe small college ball. A 17 year old who gets some praise from scouts and puts up numbers should interest us. Finally, our system was so disappointing last year that I’m putting him in my top twenty somewhere.
Erik & Co — Pleeeeeaaasse post something new so those of us who actually care about baseball (and not the politics of PEDs) have something to post about!
Has anyone heard anything on Joe Mather lately? Specifically, if his wrist is better now than it was last season, and if they will experiment with him at 3B again?