With the acquisition of Rich Hill, I’m suddenly wondering if I can count our potential AAA starters on just two hands. Do I need to take my shoes off?
Memphis had a remarkable 14 different pitchers make starts last season at Memphis. Some of these individuals we can dismiss out of hand:
- Kyle Lohse – 1 Rehab Start – Major League Rotation
- Todd Wellemeyer -2 “Rehab” Starts – Some other poor team
- Brad Thompson – 3 Memphis Shuttle starts – Signed by Kansas City Royals
- Kat Maekawa – 4 starts – No longer with the organization
- Ian Ostlund – 1 start – Currently listed on DL
- Clayton Mortensen – 23 starts – Traded for Matt Holliday
- Blake Hawksworth – 12 starts – Major League Bullpen
That still leaves us with 8 players who started in Memphis last year:
- Evan MacLane – 26 starts
- Adam Ottavino – 27 starts
- PJ Walters – 20 starts
- Oneli Perez – 10 starts
- Mitchell Boggs – 4 starts
- Trey Hearne – 4 starts
- Jaime Garcia – 4 starts
- Lance Lynn – 1 start
Perez and Hearne seem bound for the bullpen. Neither profiles well as a major league starter and both are somewhat fungible arms. If Boggs has a strong spring, it would make sense that we’d see him capture a bullpen spot with the major league team. That still leaves us with 5 viable starting candidates: MacLane, Ottavino, Walters, Garcia & Lynn. On top of that you have two additions with Rich Hill (minor league contract, NRI) and Ben Jukich (Rule V draftee) that will show up to Spring Training.
I have to believe that Jukich is headed back to Cincinnati given the presence of MacLane, Garcia and Hill. There’s simply no where to stash Jukich and likely little reason to either. If the Cardinals are serious about not signing additional pitching in the majors, it’s safe to assume that a major league roster spot will open for one of these pitchers as well. Whether Garcia/Hill directly captures the 5 starter slot or McClellan/Hawksworth makes a case for the rotation, there should still be one less player to worry about in Memphis. That leaves us with:
- One of Garcia/Hill
- Evan MacLane
- Adam Ottavino
- PJ Walters
- Lance Lynn
- Trey Hearne
The lack of any prominent AA prospect with a successful 2009 campaign makes this decision a little easier. If I was a betting man, I’d peg Hearne to get the boot to the bullpen or go on loan to Mexico again. There’s little doubt that Ottavino will capture a rotation spot. There’s an outside chance that Lynn will start at AA but given the aggressive approach they’ve taken with him so far that chance seems slim. Walters stuff doesn’t play up terribly well in the pen and MacLane had a surprisingly good Memphis campaign in 2009. Hearne’s past usage would seem to suggest that he’s the bottom of the depth chart.
There’s some reason for optimism here. The Cardinals will have assembled a reasonable cast of starting pitchers who have good chances at filling in should someone go down in the majors. While someone like MacLane could survive on his command or Garcia could make the leap to the bigs, the risk is that it takes the Cardinals 3 or 4 disastrous starts before one of their merry band of misfits takes the reins.
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Woohoo! New post!! Missed you guys.
I like the Hill signing. It gives Garcia a chance to get back in a groove after his tommy john surgery in a much less stressful environment.
The Jukich selection in the rule 5 draft didn’t even make sense at the time. No way he sticks with the big club and I highly doubt Jocketty will make a deal to let him stay with the birds. Just seems like a waste of $25k.
Charlie Zink has been a starter all of his career.
He’s in the starting rotation mix at Memphis too.
Good call. I knew I’d forgotten someone.
Also glad to have new posts.
I am not sure what is meant by “the lack of any prominant AA prospect with a successful 2009 campaign”. Either I am reading that incorrectly or am unclear why Lynn does not fall into that category.
As to Jukich, I could see a scenerio where McClellan is the 5th starter in St. Louis and Jukich is a long reliever in a bullpen with Boggs, Hawksworth, Motte, Franklin, Reyes and Miller. Unless they sign someone like Smoltz or Bedard I don’t think they drafted him and didn’t think he had a chance to stay with the Cards, particularly since there would not seem to be much chance that Jockety would allow the Cards to send him to the minors. Of course his fate will be controlled by how he pitches in spring training. If he pitches well they will try to keep him on the St. Louis roster. If he pitches so, so or worse, he’s gone.
If it only takes 3-4 starts for us to find the right guy for #5 in STL I’ll be pleased. Did they ever find the right guy last year?
I doubt Hill ever sees Memphis unless its rehab. I figure either he’s got it and he’s the #5 in STL or he gets cut.
Just want to say that I’ve been checking this site everyday since the last post. I was almost giving up that there would be another. I’m very relieved. I like this site because a huge part of my fanship revolves around the prospects. I also like it because it’s a small site compared to Viva El Birdos and others and allows for more intimate discussion. Anyway I hope you guys know you’re appreciated.
Re: the thread it’s true there’s a crapload of starting pitchers headed for Memphis. I’ve got a bee in my bonnet for Ottavino to be tried as a closer so I’m going to postulate that’s one reason the Cards are collecting other starters for AAA.
I like the Hill signing but have a feeling he’ll either make the club or be release early.
I too was puzzled by the AA comment since both Lynn and Hearne had exceptional seasons there.
I don’t understand the Zink signing in the slightest given our AAA depth for starters. I predict Jukich will be sent to Memphis since he is a 27 year old journeyman with no upside. Jocketty will refuse to take Ben back and will keep the money and invest it in the younger prospects. Ironically the Reds now have a better farm system then ours.
One thing is for sure though, Memphis will have another excellent season.
If the Cards see much to like with Jukich, he will stay with the big club and serve as this year’s Brad Thompson – mainly long relief and appearances when the club is well behind – to save other arms in the bullpen. I wouldn’t be surprised if TLR and Dunc again go with a 13-man pitching staff (yikes!).
The majority of hitters in the majors are righties. A junk-balling AAAA lefty doesn’t really stand a chance. I dred the thought of the 13-man pitching staff. Pitching was not our weakness last year. The anemic bench was. Too many times TLR had pitchers pinch-hitting instead of a legitimate bat, not that our bench players were much better anyway.
Prior to the Rule 5 draft, Baseball America gave a very good write up on Jukich a candidate for that draft (I believe it was written by Ben Badler). I think they drafted him with the idea that if he pitched well enough in spring training they would keep him as the long reliever who could develop into the #5 starter.
I also think there is very little liklihood that Jockety would allow the Cards to send him to the minors this season because of the risk that if he turned into something good it would make his successor, Mozeliak, look good at his expense. I think there are enough hard feelings on Walt’s part to not take that risk. Having to return $25k of $50k to the Cards is not a big deal for the Reds.
Indiana; I didn’t see that write up, however, there were enough pitching starved teams that passed him by for me question the choice. I’ve read the scouting report, including how high the Cards were on him before, but frankly I just don’t see a guy unprotected by the Reds as being a diamond in the rough.
As for Jocketty, I still have a lot of respect for the man. Look at our roster and you see lots of talent brought in during his regime: Pujols, Molina, Schumaker, Ryan, Carpenter, Wainwright, Craig, Garcia, McClellan, Hawksworth, Rasmus and so on. He has every right to be pissed at the Cardinals because they basically stripped him of his powers in his last year so he would fail. Having said that, Walt lost respect from the Cards for his support of Manno, who was not doing a good job as farm director. For Manno it was all or nothing with his drafts, whereas Luhnow has stalked the entire farm system with home grown talent. When it comes to making trades, I’d take Walt over Mo any day. Personally I hold no ill will toward Walt, but obviously he has no use for the 27 year old Jukich or else he would have protected him. If I’m Walt, I’m saying let’s move on and give his spot on the AAA team to a younger prospect. Why reclaim him if you no longer wanted him?
glad to see things going here again
where do all the pitchers fit is a good question, so
seems zink is an ideal long man who can go very often
if jukich looks ok, any chance we trade porkchop?
i think there is some chance hill starts at memphis in a dl kind of rehab deal. just wonder if his arm is any more durable than garcia’s at this point
kmac puzzles me, i think his long term opportunities are max as a starter. might as well find out, in memphis
Eccard, I agree with you that, looking at numbers and “stuff”, I was surprised that they drafted Jukich. However I was encouraged that Baseball America thought he had some upside prior to the draft.
As to Jockety, I too really liked him when he was their GM. I won’t get into the circumstances about his departure because I don’t know enough of the facts to comment. However, toward the end of his tenure with the Cards, I had started to wonder if, because teams were becoming more likely to sign their impending excellent free agents and/or keeping those free agents and accepting the draft choice compensation, it was becoming more likely that Walt would not be able to make the type of trades he had made early on for McGwire, Edmonds and Rolen etc. I have not seen anything so far in his time in Cincy to indicate otherwise. Acquiring Rolen at his then age, physical condition and salary from the Phillies, is much different than acquiring Rolen at his current age, physical condition and salary from the Blue Jays.
Unfortunately for Jocketty when you steal players like Wainwright, Edmonds, Rolen and McGwire and barely give up anything it makes the other GM’s look bad. This makes others wary of dealing with him for fear of being the next trophy head on his mantle. Fool me once shame on you, fool me twice……. Albeit the Mulder/Haren deal brought him back to earth.
Take another look at the Reds, Walt has built a fine young, exciting up and coming team that will be big time challengers. Scott Rolen is all his years of ware is a good veteran fit to help these young players grow. They will be legitimate title contenders in 2011. They’re just a shortstop away.
Dream scenario: Rich Hill wins 5th spot, allowing Garcia more seasoning time in AAA recovering from injury. Hill has very solid year and Cubs fans everywhere weep uncontrollably
I do not have a link so I understand if you do not believe me, but Lunhow was interviewed last season about Lynn and Lunhow said that Lynn would start in AA. It was a shocking statement given that Lynn finished in AAA last year, Walters and Ottavino are terrible, and MacLane was decent but nothing worth getting excited about.
Also, Hearne was more successful than Lynn last year in the minors so it is confusing why he would be moved to the bullpen. He pitched more innings and had a lower ERA than Lynn. He also put up some good starts in AAA. Again, hard to understand why we stick with Walters and Ottavino who struggle in the minors when we have starters who are actually doing well in the system. No meritocracy I suppose
JB, I’d have to think the whole organization has changed it’s mind on where Lance Lynn will start this season. It has to be Memphis for the simple reason that Luhnow is trying to convince fans that our farm system isn’t as bad as the experts are saying. Lance has to start in AAA to save face. PJ Walters I have a little more faith in then you. I think he will regain his control and revive his prospect status a la Hawksworth. It got messed up with his undefined role at the start of last year and by the end of the season he had pretty much righted himself. He’s actually a Duncan kind of pitcher; pitch to contact and hit your spots. As for Ottavino, he is another of our over-rated hard throwers who can’t hit the strike zone enough to be effective. I’m not sold on him at all just because he can throw at 95 mph.