The Cardinals ZiPS projections by Dan Szymborski are up and contain projections for a few minor leaguers. A random assortment of comments follows.
- Allen Craig and David Freese have nearly identical offensive projections for next year. The assessment of their overall value at this point lies almost solely in the estimation of their defense. I steadfastly remain a Freese skeptic and a Craig supporter despite this being the umpteenth objective model that says they are equivalent offensive players
- Skip Schumaker (.338 wOBA) still makes sense to the team when the cost is ~$1.5M in his first year of arbitration. Assuming Daniel Descalso holds par in 2010, the difference between he and Schumaker is about .01218 runs per PA or about 7.5 runs over an entire season. Remember this for when the Cardinals decline arbitration in year 2 or year 3. The <1 WAR downgrade is likely worth the cost savings to go from Schumaker to Descalso.
- Jon Jay makes a lot of sense off the bench as a left handed bat and late inning defensive replacement. Should he not be able to hold par, I continue to have faith in Tyler Henley’s offensive prowess.
- I’m going to be irritated all season long when Nick Stavinoha and Shane Robinson get at bats in favor of Jon Jay, Tyler Henley or Daryl Jones.
- Have we reached the point of no return with Jones? It’s hard for me to say. On one hand, he’s been in the system forever (read: 2005) but on the otherhand he’s only been focusing on baseball exclusively since then (he was a two sport star in HS) and he’s only going to be 23 in June.
- On a per PA basis, Matt Pagnozzi s .0313 runs worse than Bryan Anderson. That’s 18 runs over 600 PAs. Does anyone really believe that Matt Pagnozzi is 18 runs better over that equivalent defensive set of innings? (Catcher defense rankings for major leaguers here.)
- It appears the Cardinals have 7 pitchers that are comfortably projected above replacement level. (5.50 ERA)
- As someone who believes the Kyle Lohse deal was a market value contract (i.e. we paid for his production spot on), it looks bad next to all but equivalent projections from Jaime Garcia and Lance Lynn.
- Lynn comes out looking very well under this projection for someone with 1 AAA start. I’m bearish on Lynn after watching video of him. If he’s in St. Louis this season, something’s gone horribly wrong.
- I’ll take the over on Garcia. If he can command his pitches, I’ll take the over on 100 ERA+. His curveball is that good and his fastball has enough sink that he can be that good.
- I’d be thrilled to see Eduardo Sanchez put up those numbers over 2010. A 7.5K/9 would have put him ahead of everyone not named Jason Motte or Trevor Miller in 2009.