The Cardinals ZiPS projections by Dan Szymborski are up and contain projections for a few minor leaguers. A random assortment of comments follows.
Position Players:
- Allen Craig and David Freese have nearly identical offensive projections for next year. The assessment of their overall value at this point lies almost solely in the estimation of their defense. I steadfastly remain a Freese skeptic and a Craig supporter despite this being the umpteenth objective model that says they are equivalent offensive players
- Skip Schumaker (.338 wOBA) still makes sense to the team when the cost is ~$1.5M in his first year of arbitration. Assuming Daniel Descalso holds par in 2010, the difference between he and Schumaker is about .01218 runs per PA or about 7.5 runs over an entire season. Remember this for when the Cardinals decline arbitration in year 2 or year 3. The <1 WAR downgrade is likely worth the cost savings to go from Schumaker to Descalso.
- Jon Jay makes a lot of sense off the bench as a left handed bat and late inning defensive replacement. Should he not be able to hold par, I continue to have faith in Tyler Henley’s offensive prowess.
- I’m going to be irritated all season long when Nick Stavinoha and Shane Robinson get at bats in favor of Jon Jay, Tyler Henley or Daryl Jones.
- Have we reached the point of no return with Jones? It’s hard for me to say. On one hand, he’s been in the system forever (read: 2005) but on the otherhand he’s only been focusing on baseball exclusively since then (he was a two sport star in HS) and he’s only going to be 23 in June.
- On a per PA basis, Matt Pagnozzi s .0313 runs worse than Bryan Anderson. That’s 18 runs over 600 PAs. Does anyone really believe that Matt Pagnozzi is 18 runs better over that equivalent defensive set of innings? (Catcher defense rankings for major leaguers here.)
Pitchers:
- It appears the Cardinals have 7 pitchers that are comfortably projected above replacement level. (5.50 ERA)
- As someone who believes the Kyle Lohse deal was a market value contract (i.e. we paid for his production spot on), it looks bad next to all but equivalent projections from Jaime Garcia and Lance Lynn.
- Lynn comes out looking very well under this projection for someone with 1 AAA start. I’m bearish on Lynn after watching video of him. If he’s in St. Louis this season, something’s gone horribly wrong.
- I’ll take the over on Garcia. If he can command his pitches, I’ll take the over on 100 ERA+. His curveball is that good and his fastball has enough sink that he can be that good.
- I’d be thrilled to see Eduardo Sanchez put up those numbers over 2010. A 7.5K/9 would have put him ahead of everyone not named Jason Motte or Trevor Miller in 2009.
Entries (RSS)
I would love to know the real story on Anderson v. Pagnozzi. Is Anderson a dog eater? A teetotaler? An advocate of throwing the high 4-seamer? Does Pagnozzi have some choice video in a safe deposit box?
Look, I have no illusions of Anderson being an All-Star, but he can’t possibly suck as bad as Pagnozzi. I can’t think of a single Cardinal hitter in the last 50 years who looks as helpless at the plate as Pagnozzi.
Not even Dal Maxvill, giveml?
Dude, remember when Tony first got to St. Louis and we signed Mike Gallego? That was the worst major league hitter I’ve ever seen.
If anderson had his own hitting ability and Pags’ catching ability, he’d be over Pags on the depth chart. Considering Molina is the long-term catcher here, it suprises me that people make such a fuss over this. The cardinals clearly value defense behind the plate more than offensive production. While I haven’t seen seen either play in person, everything I’ve read indicates that Pags is superior defensively, while Anderson struggles, or at least, thats how the Cardinals feel. Also, its not exactly as if Anderson has been lighting up AAA with the bat. in ’08 he slugged .379 and in ’09 he slugged .399. Not exactly Buster Posey-esque or even jeff clement-esque.
I get it, though. He hits LH and that somehow triples his value.
Don’t get me wrong – I prefer to see Anderson play over Pags….but I think Anderson is growing more and more overrated with FR readers, despite not producing great offensive results or outstanding defense.
Giveml….this isn’t directed solely at you, just the general populous of Pags bashers and anderson supporters.
My point is it really doesn’t matter much so why bother getting worked up over it. Molina is catching here for as long as Albert wants him too. I’m not going to throw a fit over who our backup catcher is (as long as its not Carlos Hernandez). Neither guy has much of a big league future.
Also, Anderson is now 23. The age argument is over once the season starts.
I will say…that it is somewhat suprising to see Pags still in the organization. I’m willing to bet that this is his last year, though
So Taguchi looked like a little league hitter when he first came up.
His transformation to an even average MLB hitter was amazing.
Why not try Anderson at 2nd or 3rd?
minor quibble — i doubt we decline arb for skippy. we’ll probably play descalso, make sure he’s okay, then trade skippy.