Two Cardinal farmhands rank on the top 100: Shelby Miller, 38 & Daryl Jones, 59.
Law has been consistently bullish on DJ Tools upside and obviously sees much of the same in the arm of Shelby Miller. Again, this seems eminently reasonable to me. I’m having a recollection of a KLaw chat where he implied that Jones would be ranked ahead of Miller though. If anyone can come across that or also remembers that, drop a note in the comments.
More interesting for us is his top 10 list for Cardinal prospects:
1. Shelby Miller, RHP
2. Daryl Jones, OF
3. Lance Lynn, RHP
4. Jaime Garcia, RHP
5. Robert Stock, C
6. Dan Descalso, 2B
7. Eduardo Sanchez, RHP
8. Adron Chambers, OF
9. Francisco Samuel, RHP
10. Audris Perez, C
It’s an interesting list that clearly favors eventual upside over proximity to the majors. Accepting that prospect worldview I think Sanchez is a touch underrated. Audris Perez is a Dominican Republic signee who played in Johnson City last year (also seen as Audry Perez). I think the Lynn over Garcia rating is bogus (and may or may not be influenced by the wrongly classified “RHP” Garcia). Overall though, a solid assessment.
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You’re right on Law saying Jones would be ranked ahead of Miller.
The question was right after the draft and basically said “Is Shelby Miller now the Cards’ top prosect?” Law’s response was “Not ahead of Daryl Jones.”
Found the question:
Aron (STL)
Klaw thanks for your time! So is Shelby Miller now vaulted up to the number 1 on the Cardinal’s Depleted Prospect list?
Keith Law
(3:45 PM)
Not over Daryl Jones.
By and large this looks sensible, but I’m very surprised that Garcia is so low. Did Keith perhaps not notice what he did in the playoffs? I know, only two games, but that’s a third of his season total at the AAA level, after all.
Law has Shelby Miller ranked better than Kyle Drabek, and Daryl Jones better than Austin Jackson, that’s kinda interesting.
I’m just confused about the Audry Perez inclusion.
He OPS’ed .850 ish in Johnson City last year at DH and C.
I’m not trying to be contrary to Klaw, I just want to know what he sees in the kid that we haven’t seen.
Ryan, I would bet that at that time he had Miller higher but since then Jones has not done very much and to alot of people has taken a few steps backwards from how we viewed him after 2008. I do wonder what his explination of Lynn over Garcia is though
I too was confused by the Perez selection. To go along with the mediocre numbers he also played as a 20 year old. Not exactly young for the league.
Hey guys. Obviously we’re seven months past the pick, and Jones was hurt much of the second half and didn’t light me up in the AFL.
Lynn’s a starter, for sure, and I’m sure you guys know I’ve always liked him. Garcia’s been out with TJ, has a bad arm action, and might very well be a reliever. That’s the only reason. Adjacent spots nearly always = minor differences.
Perez can catch and has thump. He DH’d because they had three catchers there with Stock and Tartamella. We’re debating who’s 10th in a weak system, though. I’m not going to argue vehemently that he’s 10th and not 12th.
Thanks for reading.
As all Cardinal fans should know, Keith Law’s opinion of our talent doesn’t hold much validity. Another more knowledgable ranking has 0 Cardinals in the top 60 and is unfortunately far more believable.
The only thing I really like about this list is that Descalso gets put up where I would have him. There’s an obvious preference for toolsy younger players who haven’t revealed their limitations and that’s okay I guess. But hey, I’ll take a bet with anyone here that Jon Jay will have more of a career than Adron Chambers. Jay is likely to be a fourth outfielder for some team for some time. Adron has some tools but will need to pick up his production as he rises in the system and, even then, he is also likely to be a reserve outfielder. I do think that putting Samuel in the top ten is interesting. He has had outstanding numbers and injuries and I agree that he may have a good shot at a real career. Perez? Fine if he really does have some tools. Personally I think that there are at least ten players not mentioned who have a good chance of having low to mid ceiling major league careers in the system. These players all deserve to be mentioned in the top ten before a long shot like Perez.
Keith tends to know the top talent and then adds some obscure names, to be interesting.
What he says about Perez might be right. Stock and Tartamella would have deserved most of the action behind the plate at Johnson City. Perez can hit, though the Cards have others. He will need to get more work and develop defensively, in future.
Chambers had a good season, for an fringy guy. Moving up to 8th overall seems too high, for now.
I just hope we can all keep in mind that when someone has accomplished things we all dream about being able to do, they deserve a certain amount of respect for their opinions. I disagree with a lot of rankings, but prospecting is such an inexact science that, when you really feel something about a player, sometimes you’ve got to go against the grain, especially if you’ve been in the business a long time.
I wonder if Law has a clue that Perez was 0-12 in throwing out base runners.
Because 12 is a representative sample size?
Carioca, do you dream of being the next Keith Law, knocking him off his throne? (I dream of this for you.)
The Keith Law bashing can stop now. If you want to disagree with him do it in a substantive manner. The whiny “he doesn’t know anything” comments are unfounded and ignorant.
I didn’t know Keith Law was a food and book critic too, that was kind of neat looking at his site. I still think he has a good list, definately looks more at upside when looking at the individual rankings in this top 100.
I’m a big KLaw guy, the Cy Young vote notwithstanding, so I gotta give him a bit of leeway when it comes to our organization. He could’ve chosen 15 different players for the bottom of the list, and there would exist a legitimate argument for any of them. Keep in mind Law operates within a much narrower age range for him to make his rankings. Players we consider ‘prospects’ like Allen Craig don’t make an appearance, and I’d have to think age has plenty to do with that. Plus, he took the time on the day or night that his list was released to clarify his past comments. Which I find to be impressive, even if we disagree.
Watch out for the Kozmanaut! He is gonna break into the top 10 list with his break out 2010 season– I can only hope.
I personally have always respected Keith Law’s opinions. We all get so caught up in our own system because we follow these players on a daily or weekly basis. An outside unbiased opinion is probably more accurate than our own. I love my cardinals and sometimes project what I want a player to be rather than who they really are. Thanks to Keith Law for giving us your perspective!
St. Louis Globe-Democrat article
Cardinals’ prospect Jones wants to stay healthy, prove himself
After freak injury last year, Jones hoping to impress during spring training
http://www.globe-democrat.com/news/2010/jan/28/outfield-prospect-jones-hoping-stay-healthy-show-c/
I wasn’t bashing Law. I like reading his lists because he seems to have some independence of thought — unlike many rankers.
I have never seen Audris Perez discussed at this site or the Scout.com/Walton site. In the comments above Law says he could be the #10 or the #12 prospect. I am not trying to argue or disrespect his opinions, but I have never even seen Perez in the Cards Top 40 (I haven’t received my Baseball America Top 30 book yet). Does Law know something that seemingly nobody else knows, or did he just pull a name out a hat without researching it?
Certainly Keith has access and insight that we don’t have here. Also, I have an admitted bias against Latin prospects until I get to see them in action stateside and/or see them firsthand. Perez wasn’t on my radar but he was playing at Johnson City and I worry about the level of competition enough that JC stats don’t impress me.
So the answer is, I don’t know but it’s not a reason to dismiss the list out of hand. I think there were better choices (Henley, Craig) but it’s not THAT crazy to think Perez at 20 is a good catching prospect.
There is nothing “wrong” with mentioning Perez or Chambers. Perez is years away and there is not a clear reason to shine a spot light on him either. Chambers is good, but not known to have can’t miss tools.
The Cards have a lot of guys who cab honestly be ranked anywhere from 8 to 48. They all have some promise, but it will take years for them to develop or not.
This is just another example of where are system currently sits. As I have never been a huge KLaw fan I don’t bash him as others do. I respect his insight regardless of if I agree with it or not. With that said you look at our system and only 1 player has potential impact player written all over him…Miller. But the thing that you can’t dismiss about our system is how many close to MLB ready guys that we have that could play a role on the big club in the next year to year and a half. Guys like Lynn, Garcia, Descalso, Sanchez (my pick for closer of the future), Craig, Jones, etc have the potential to make contributions and at least make solid bench role players in the bigs. With the potential of Holliday and Pujols taking up roughly 40% of our payroll very soon this is a very crucial thing to keep in mind. The more league minimum contributors we have on the 25 man roster the better. I personally think this years draft is crucial in getting high upside (“impact”) type players. We have a 1st round and 2 supplemental 1st Round picks…we have the potential to get 2 or 3 “impact” type guys. Heres to hoping we go that route.