Keith Law has another article up (prolific lately, no?) regarding prospects that could impact teams in 2010 but aren’t in the top 100. He bypasses the Cardinal prospect (Jaime Garcia) that I believe is better in the long run due to injury related inning limitations in favor of Lance Lynn. There’s nothing earth-shattering in his evaluation but I wanted to compare his comments to my own scouting report very briefly.
Law:
Lynn has a four-pitch mix, all pitches average but nothing plus, led by a solid-average fastball with good tailing sink that generates some ground balls and helps him keep the ball in the park, and two breaking balls to change hitters’ eye levels and move the ball around the zone.
Azru:
There’s nothing in his repetoire that stands out as a swing and miss offering. The fastballs are a tick above average. The breaking ball is an above average pitch and the changeup is a functional average third pitch.
It would seem that there’s two discrepancies here: 1) the existence of a changeup and 2) the perception of his breaking ball. The changeup was definitive when I watched video and Law doesn’t explicitly say he doesn’t throw a change instead naming two breaking pitches and a fastball by name. What I referred to as more of a tailing fastball could well be one of those breaking pitches to with a slurvy-curveball. The second point I’ll readily concede to Law’s experience that the breaking pitch may be better described as ‘average’ than ‘above average’.
Law:
Lynn’s also a strong competitor who pitches very aggressively, and I think he’ll go after big league hitters like a veteran when he gets the opportunity.
This is an oft cited feature of Lynn and while I don’t disagree with the assessment, I’d liken demeanor to team chemistry. There’s little proof that it matters (within reason) but equally little way to measure it. So while you’ll hear his demeanor quoted, I’m more concerned about the lack of an out pitch.
Azru:
Can he be a command pitcher with good stuff and a nice mix of pitchs? Yes, absolutely. I’d be inclined to believe that he could do that as early as mid next year.
Lynn’s a solid bet to make an impact in the near future. I wouldn’t pin hopes on him to be more than a 4.50 ERA (in a context neutral environment and team – necessary caveats for ERA) but he could be that very shortly. It warms my circuits when FR perspectives match outside perspectives closely.
Entries (RSS)
speaking of prolific… well done azru. Wonderful to come to my favorite baseball blogs and get new material daily – sometimes even more frequently. Appreciate all the effort.
Question: does a minor league pitcher with basically 4 ‘average’ pitches equate to a MLB ‘average’ starter? Are we talking #5 starter material with 4 decent-but-not-great-pitches?
Jarrod Washburn, Joe Blanton and Jon Garland are all along the same line of the type of pitcher Lynn could hope to result in. I’ll let you pick the specific appellation you’d like to apply.
If he really throws four “average” pitches, I’d predict greater success for him than #5 starter, because in pitch selection, quantity has a quality all its own. The Cardinals precedent on that is Joe Magrane, who threw a variety of not-overpowering pitches, but the ability to mix ‘em up made him quite effective at his best.
I remain to be convinced, however, that Lynn really will have four or more “average” pitches. That’s actually asking quite a lot of a pitcher.
It’s also quite a lot to ask that he’ll display that kind of effectiveness right away. If Lynn can immediately be a Garland or a Washburn then he’s a real asset for the next few years. Those kinds of pitchers can cost a lot of bucks to obtain as veterans. If he’s going to muddle around with 5.00 plus e.r.a.’s for the next three years then he really doesn’t have value to a Cards team that should be competing for the playoffs. He probably also won’t get a chance to develop with them if it takes that long.
I’d take a Joe Blanton-type innings eating overweight 4 starter anyday! Good stuff, Azru.
So a 2-3 WAR pitcher for league min? Sounds like a winning proposition. From all the scouting reports, is there any potential for surprises? What are the chances he develops into something more? If he can successfully apply the Piniero-philosophy to his pitching, do we have a (virtually) free #3 on our hands?
A quibble on demeanor, az. As you said, I’m not sure it makes a lot of difference in getting outs but I sure would rather watch a pitcher who thinks he can get hitters out than someone like Walters, who always seemed ’scared’ when he faced major league hitters last year (or perhaps just not very confident he could get them out with his stuff).
I was able to see Lynn live and the comp that I came away with was Jeff Suppan. They have very similar curve balls and work both sides of the plate with a non-overpowering fastball. To me, Lynn’s ceiling is the Cardinal version of Suppan with his floor being the brewer version of Suppan.
I think several other guys would have to falter for Lynn to be the first or second starter called up this year.
A couple things to note. First I don’t think azru was trying to say Lynn “is” those pitchers today but he projects to be those types of pitchers when he gets settled in. My take on Lynn is this and very similar to Law and Azru. He will be no better than a #3 SP in his prime and won’t be any worse than a #5. So if we expect a #4 type pitcher with a 4.00-4.75 ERA then that would be a realistic expectation. His K/IP won’t be close to what we saw in the low to mid minors but if we keep our motto of strong defensive team he will benefit greatly from that as he keeps the ball in the park but guys will put the ball in play against him often. I really like the Joe Blanton type comparisons as he have a big strong kid that will be a bulldog and once he gets a year or so under his belt you should expect 200+ innings each year…which in itself is extremely valuable. I say we see him for a few fill in starts mid-year and certainly a Sept callup. I think he will be a very strong candidate for the 2011 rotation assuming no major injuries occur.
I’ll be curious to see how Lynn does in Memphis in ‘10, and in the PCL in general. He’s going from a pure hitter’s park to a pure pitcher’s park. I’m still amazed by his 2.92 ERA in Springfield. His park-adjusted FIP was 3.69, so there was some luck and (I assume) good defense working in his favor.
But luck starts with keeping the ball in the stadium, and a ~50% ground-ball rate doesn’t hurt.
By 2011 he could be the equivalent of a $8-10 million pitcher on the open market, and I’m happy with that from the 39th overall pick in the 2008 draft.
A couple of years ago (or maybe last year), one of the internet pitching-mechanics guys that posts here (O’Leary?) posted video of Lynn. There was a frame-by-frame breakdown of his motion. The video featured his fastball, change-up and slider.
What stood out to me was that his release point and motion were identical, regardless of the pitch, even in the frame by frame view. All three pitches came in on the same plane, all had late movement and the velocity of the three pitches complemented each other perfectly.
In my opinion, that is what terms like “pitchability” really mean. He doesn’t have a pitch that makes you say “Wow,” but it will be very difficult for hitters to recognize his pitches until very late, which will in turn make it difficult to square the ball up. His ceiling is limited, but he is a good bet to be a solid contributor to a major league rotation, in my opinion and there is plenty of value in that.
so is a projected starting rotation in 2011 of Waino, Carp, Lohse, Garcia, and Lynn truly realistic? It’d be nice to see us capably fill out the rotation with two low cost, team controlled starters. I haven’t seen Lynn pitch, but I’m encouraged with some of the scouting reports I’ve seen.
Also, I’d love to see Craig replace Ludwick (Ludwick traded for a few prospects) in 2011, if Craig can prove he can produce at the major league level this season. With Lynn and Craig, they could free up ~$14 mil to use elsewhere in 2011… maybe some money towards a Pujols contract and also towards a closer?
I think Lynn would be in the mix for 2011, but Boggs and McClellan (depending on how he does this year in his tryout) probably would be as well. The fifth starter role usually isn’t set on most teams, and hopefully by 2011, Garcia will have successfully transitioned to the MLB roster as one of the four starters.