Comments on: Quick Comp: Lance Lynn Reports

By: Forsch31

Forsch31 — Wed, 10 Feb 2010 23:00:30 +0000

I think Lynn would be in the mix for 2011, but Boggs and McClellan (depending on how he does this year in his tryout) probably would be as well. The fifth starter role usually isn’t set on most teams, and hopefully by 2011, Garcia will have successfully transitioned to the MLB roster as one of the four starters.

By: d. kahl

d. kahl — Sun, 07 Feb 2010 17:29:40 +0000

so is a projected starting rotation in 2011 of Waino, Carp, Lohse, Garcia, and Lynn truly realistic? It’d be nice to see us capably fill out the rotation with two low cost, team controlled starters. I haven’t seen Lynn pitch, but I’m encouraged with some of the scouting reports I’ve seen.
Also, I’d love to see Craig replace Ludwick (Ludwick traded for a few prospects) in 2011, if Craig can prove he can produce at the major league level this season. With Lynn and Craig, they could free up ~$14 mil to use elsewhere in 2011… maybe some money towards a Pujols contract and also towards a closer?

By: Chris

Chris — Sat, 06 Feb 2010 16:22:05 +0000

A couple of years ago (or maybe last year), one of the internet pitching-mechanics guys that posts here (O’Leary?) posted video of Lynn. There was a frame-by-frame breakdown of his motion. The video featured his fastball, change-up and slider.

What stood out to me was that his release point and motion were identical, regardless of the pitch, even in the frame by frame view. All three pitches came in on the same plane, all had late movement and the velocity of the three pitches complemented each other perfectly.

In my opinion, that is what terms like “pitchability” really mean. He doesn’t have a pitch that makes you say “Wow,” but it will be very difficult for hitters to recognize his pitches until very late, which will in turn make it difficult to square the ball up. His ceiling is limited, but he is a good bet to be a solid contributor to a major league rotation, in my opinion and there is plenty of value in that.

By: Lou Schuler

Lou Schuler — Sat, 06 Feb 2010 12:07:02 +0000

I’ll be curious to see how Lynn does in Memphis in ’10, and in the PCL in general. He’s going from a pure hitter’s park to a pure pitcher’s park. I’m still amazed by his 2.92 ERA in Springfield. His park-adjusted FIP was 3.69, so there was some luck and (I assume) good defense working in his favor.

But luck starts with keeping the ball in the stadium, and a ~50% ground-ball rate doesn’t hurt.

By 2011 he could be the equivalent of a $8-10 million pitcher on the open market, and I’m happy with that from the 39th overall pick in the 2008 draft.

By: JC

JC — Fri, 05 Feb 2010 18:29:45 +0000

A couple things to note. First I don’t think azru was trying to say Lynn “is” those pitchers today but he projects to be those types of pitchers when he gets settled in. My take on Lynn is this and very similar to Law and Azru. He will be no better than a #3 SP in his prime and won’t be any worse than a #5. So if we expect a #4 type pitcher with a 4.00-4.75 ERA then that would be a realistic expectation. His K/IP won’t be close to what we saw in the low to mid minors but if we keep our motto of strong defensive team he will benefit greatly from that as he keeps the ball in the park but guys will put the ball in play against him often. I really like the Joe Blanton type comparisons as he have a big strong kid that will be a bulldog and once he gets a year or so under his belt you should expect 200+ innings each year…which in itself is extremely valuable. I say we see him for a few fill in starts mid-year and certainly a Sept callup. I think he will be a very strong candidate for the 2011 rotation assuming no major injuries occur.

By: cariocacardinal

cariocacardinal — Thu, 04 Feb 2010 01:07:06 +0000

I think several other guys would have to falter for Lynn to be the first or second starter called up this year.

By: Kyle

Kyle — Thu, 04 Feb 2010 00:17:40 +0000

I was able to see Lynn live and the comp that I came away with was Jeff Suppan. They have very similar curve balls and work both sides of the plate with a non-overpowering fastball. To me, Lynn’s ceiling is the Cardinal version of Suppan with his floor being the brewer version of Suppan.

By: CRay

CRay — Wed, 03 Feb 2010 16:15:26 +0000

A quibble on demeanor, az. As you said, I’m not sure it makes a lot of difference in getting outs but I sure would rather watch a pitcher who thinks he can get hitters out than someone like Walters, who always seemed ‘scared’ when he faced major league hitters last year (or perhaps just not very confident he could get them out with his stuff).

By: cdb

cdb — Wed, 03 Feb 2010 14:45:24 +0000

So a 2-3 WAR pitcher for league min? Sounds like a winning proposition. From all the scouting reports, is there any potential for surprises? What are the chances he develops into something more? If he can successfully apply the Piniero-philosophy to his pitching, do we have a (virtually) free #3 on our hands?

By: Tom

Tom — Wed, 03 Feb 2010 03:19:43 +0000

I’d take a Joe Blanton-type innings eating overweight 4 starter anyday! Good stuff, Azru.