I have a hard time worrying about the Brendan Ryan news and, now that the children have been consoled, let me tell you why.
- Ryan’s value to the team was predicated on two things: his glove and his health. While we can mourn the wrist injury, the defense under Tyler Greene shouldn’t see a tremendous decline. While Total Zone (which can be found at minorleaguesplits.com) was never a fan of either in the minors, it was slightly more partial to Greene. From a scouting standpoint, both Greene and Ryan receive excellent reviews featuring well above average range, a strong arm and somewhat erratic play.
- Brendan Ryan was no great shakes in the minors offensively; he was actually quite terrible. He was not terrible in the majors last year and that’s about as much of an endorsement as you can make. Tyler Greene, however, has had several excellent seasons in the minors including his 2009 Memphis work where he posted a .291/.369/.482 line (which translates as a .252/.313/.398). His projections for 2010 will certainly be below that but the offensive ceiling for Greene is dramatically higher than that of Ryan. We may have more confidence in Ryan’s projected contribution but there’s still the chance that he declines significantly with the bat.
- If you let him, he will run. In Memphis last season, Tyler Greene stole 31 bases in 89 games. He was caught just 3 times. That’s a freaking crazy awesome rate. Using these values, gives us the idea that those steals were worth another 3-4 runs.
- Tyler Greene posted his best walk rate and strikeout rate last year. A 10% walk rate and a 25% strikeout rate still aren’t signs of tremendous plate discipline but he continues to make strides and, if those rates are sustainable, they’re rates that indicate he could survive in the majors.
It would certainly be my preference that Brendan Ryan is ready for the start of the season but there’s little reason for the team to panic and sign another player to fill in whatever time Ryan might be out. The Cardinals have an adequate internal candidate to bridge the gap and potentially build some additional value. Deep breaths, don’t panic.
None of this explains the total management ineptitude of the surgery’s timeframe. If your wrist wasn’t better after 3 months of rest (Oct, Nov, Dec), what would the additional month (Jan) tell you that you didn’t already know? Whether it was Ryan’s reluctance to come forward or more injury mismanagement by the team is hard to tell for certain. It seems that Ryan is mostly to blame from public comments but the unfortunate deja vu nature of this event has to leave a bad taste in everyone’s mouth.
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I only prefer Ryan because he’s further along on the major league learning curve.
Az, in “Kieth Law Organizational Rankings” you said Greene was a replacement level player. Now you are touting him? Do you see Ryan as replacement level as well? I’m either miss reading you or confused (or both).
Ryan played at his peak last year. I really don’t see a scenario in which he’s better than that. Greene is a downturn offensively but not much of one defensively. I don’t want Greene as more than a backup player but, if Ryan is really only out for a month or even two, that shouldn’t be more than about a win in the standings.
I agree with you that we shouldn’t panic and go looking for a replacement at shortstop. I kind of disagree with your analysis of Ryan though. I don’t live near St. Louis so I don’t get to see the players as much as most of this site’s readers but I must say I’ve been impressed by Ryan from the start. When he came up he was shuttled around the infield, played little, was immediately in TLR’s dog house and was collecting injuries. But his basic defensive attributes seemed obvious to me when I was able to see him. His range, arm and reflexes looked superior to me than any Cardinal infielder since Ozzie. He may have played at his peak last year and the injuries and dinginess may be ongoing issues, but I do think that last year was more a case of gelling his skills into a complete defensive player than an aberration. I think that having a superb defensive player between the suspects at third and second base played a huge role in the team’s success last year and we will miss him for whatever time he’s out.
Deriding an attempt to avoid surgery is a lot easier when it’s someone else’s body that’s being cut on rather than your own. This is something of a “been there, done that” issue to me, having had a knee scoped a couple of years ago that didn’t turn out well, and I have no problem at all with Boog putting off the decision to go under the knife until it could be put off no longer. I do agree that it shouldn’t be a big deal in the grand scheme of things, as long as the surgery is “minor” and he recovers from it better than I did from mine. TG can stand in for a while, and no panicky move is appropriate.
Not to mention that Greene throws overhand.