I chuckle a little bit when I read the annual article on Josh Kinney’s return to the bullpen — this time it’s penned by BJ Rains at the Globe-Democrat. It’s not that I dislike Kinney, it’s just that he seems to have developed the reputation of a good reliever without ever actually being . . . well, you know, good.
If you look at his career stats, he’s been a decent reliever with a 4.19 FIP over 47 innings. That’s Kyle McClellan territory. In 2006, when he actually saw extended usage across 25 innings he posted a 4.03 FIP. Last year in 15 innings he was downright terrible. His complete inability to stay healthy has made his tenure more arduous and protracted than it might have otherwise been.
Perhaps it’s the slider that resides in the hearts of Cardinals’ fans. It’s a big sweeping slider that makes him more effective as a ROOGy than as a true multiple batter reliever. It certainly isn’t his performance in high leverage situations, which, thanks to Fangraphs new splits section, we can see is atrocious.
My first instinct was that it is all a derivative of the mythical 2006 postseason bullpen, which is in turn a derivative of one pitch thrown by Adam Wainwright to Carlos Beltran. That bullpen was heralded as a bunch of unsung heroes taking the reins when needed most in order to propel the team to victory. Whether or not that’s true, Kinney doesn’t appear to have been a big part of that.
He posted a good 3.62 FIP but in a paltry 6 innings and mainly by not allowing any HRs. WPA, which gives heavy leverage to later innings and thus relievers, for the 2006 post season was .23 so in 6 innings he managed to contribute about half a win (1 win = .5 WPA) if you buy WPA. If you adjust for leverage, that decreases to .16 meaning that Kinney was asked to come in and pitch some lower leverage or mop-up innings.
At the end of the day, he’s a serviceable cog in the back end of the pen but I’d have little faith in his performance beyond being a middle reliever and the occasional tough righty hitter. The only answer that makes any sense is the narrative. An independent league pitcher whom the Cardinals pluck from obscurity and then aids in the winning of a World Series title. His tumultuous battle with various medical maladies as he strives to return to the major league bullpen and help his team again allows for a good deal of embellishment on the reality. That must be what drives the Kinney stories every year because it certainly isn’t performance driven.
Entries (RSS)
He may not be “good,” AZ, but it’s fair to question whether he’ll be as bad in 2010 as he looked in 2009. One thing (of several, to be sure…) that cratered in ’09 was his K/BB ratio, and that isn’t uncommon for a pitcher the first year after TJ surgery. By the second year back, it’s generally improved — if it’s ever going to come back at all.
I’m with you that the sappy sentimentality may not match the likely performance, but hey, baseball is a sentimental game, and the performance MIGHT get back to acceptable, if certainly not great, levels.
If he’s been as good as McClellen over his career and part of that career he was recovering from injury you have to like his chances if he is truly healthy now (and wasn’t before). I said IF !
I’m glad we have Kinney and his myth as a solid reliever. His presence may be what allows JMo to hold off TLR’s request for help in bullpen. But for Kinney, we’d see a dumpster dive looking for the next Col. Welley. Kinney is just a placeholder until someone like Salas or Sanchez distinguishes himself in Memphis (hopefully in 2010). It will be easier to push aside Kinney when someone at Memphis knocks on the St. Louis door than the next Welley that Duncan has fallen in love with.
I’m hoping that Eduardo Sanchez makes the team out of spring training.
This is an excellent piece. Sobering analysis that I love.
Too bad the robot who writes it can’t understand love.