I promise to have some thoughts about this in the next few days but here’s the list (full article requires subscription). The only thing I’ll say in passing is that I feel like Adron Chambers is getting a bit of a bandwagon effect from the internet which can act as an echo chamber at times. Otherwise, I don’t see a lot of reasons to hate on this list. Kevin Goldstein does, on balance, very good work and I love the format he uses in this series.
Updated 2/24/10 – 9:00pm
Five-Star Prospects
1. Shelby Miller, RHP
Three-Star Prospects
2. Jaime Garcia, LHP
3. David Freese, 3B
4. Eduardo Sanchez, RHP
5. Daryl Jones, OF
6. Lance Lynn, RHP
7. Allen Craig, OF
8. Robert Stock, C
Two-Star Prospects
9. Daniel Descalso, 2B
10. Adron Chambers, OF
11. Mark Hamilton, 1B
Now that I’ve had a little more time to digest this, let me hit up some nit-picky bullet points on a largely solid list:
- Freese is such a difficult prospect to rank. He has virtually no “upside” to speak of but he should have limited downside. Obviously, I’m not a fan of the 3rd rank but I can understand it because there’s the perception of less variance in Freese’s projection.
- Good to see Sanchez high on the list but relievers are incredibly volatile. If he doesn’t start the year in Memphis then the Cardinals are likely trying to hoard too many fungible middle relievers in AAA.
- Allen Craig represents one of the real downsides of having players locked in to the two easiest defensive positions with the big league club. I’ve long been a proponent of the NL adopting the DH and he represents part of the reason why.
- Robert Stock is the new Bryan Anderson. The Bryan Anderson bandwagon is now more of a rickshaw cart.
- I don’t see Mark Hamilton ever getting a whiff of the majors.
- Apparently I have to keep beating the Kyle McClellan isn’t a very good reliever drum alone. Ranking him as the #4 under-25 is a gross over-assessment of his skillset in the pen. Unless he pans out as a servicable 5th starter, he’s completely replaceable by a 30-something reliever on the free agent in any given off season.
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I agree that Goldstein is a fair arbiter who does his homework. One of the questions I’ve had is whether there’s any chance Craig or Chambers could play right field. (I already knew Daryl Jones has a left-field arm.) Goldstein shoots down both possibilities.
More and more, I think the NL should just let the Wookiee win and adopt the DH. I hate reading that Craig, our best hitting prospect, has no place to play because the two positions at the weak end of the defensive spectrum are already taken by our best players.
Plus, if both leagues had a DH, then we could just have 15 teams per league, and 5 per division, without the weird 16-14 split we have today.
Unfortunately, that’s probably a realistic assessment of Craig. I mean, do we really want another Chris Duncan staggering around out there in left field? I’ve not seen Craig myself to judge whether that’s a realistic comparison, but from the way scouts and others are talking …
Two names not on this list sadden me. (Koz, in case anyone cares any more, is one of the four on the supplementary “just missed” list.) One is Niko Vasquez; how the mighty have fallen. The other, which I find less understandable, is Bryan Anderson. By now it seems clear that he’s unlikely to have a career as a Cardinal, but has his stock really fallen so far that Mark Hamilton, who Goldstein assesses mainly as trade bait, is more attractive in the trade-bait role than a catcher who can hit a little?
I can’t imagine that Hamilton is even trade bait. Other than his inclusion and Chambers I think it’s a good list. I was glad to see him point to Ottavino as still a prospect. I think so too.
I didn’t understand the comment that Jay has a corner outfielder’s skill set. My understanding is that he is a great outfielder with great range who can’t hit well enough to play the corners.
I might stop watching baseball if the NL were to adopt the DH…ugh
I’m surprised that Eduardo Sanchez hasn’t got a little more pub in the prospect lists…maybe i am overestimating him, but a closer type arm with good control is a very valuable commodity
Love the new mobile friendly site. One request…can you remove the sidebar re following FR on Twitter? It covers up some text and I cannot figure a way to make it disappear.
As far as the BP list goes, no real surprises except the absence of E. Sanchez. I guess BP doesn’t think there is enough of a track record.
Oops guess I somehow missed Sanchez on my first pass through the list. If I had to nitpick I’d say Henley belongs on the list over Chambers.
Sanchez is on there at 4…i just think he should be higher and maybe a 4-star prospect
I thought I read something in a Derrick Goold article that said that Kozma’s swing looks a lot tighter. From my understanding one of his problems was that he had loose swing where he kind of casted. He’s only going to be 22 so there is still some time for him to be a miss.
I think it is really premature to say that Hamilton won’t get a whiff of the majors. He may never play for the Cards, being an unathletic 1b for a team with Albert and no DH, but he could well hit enough to DH for an AL team in the future. On further thought having made the Cards 40 man roster he is a potential DH this season for the Cards when they play in AL parks.
I’m starting to get the impression Kozma is underrated. He makes a lot of plays. Last year he led the Texas League in assists by a shortstop with 375. That’s on top of 44 assists at Palm Beach. Did any other minor-league shortstop get 400+ assists last year?
If he’s truly a plus or plus-plus defensive SS, he’s still a valuable prospect even if his bat takes a season or two to catch up to his glove.
In general the top-prospect lists seem to downgrade defense and overrate speed and power. Those tools get a prospect up to AA or AAA, but if they’re unconnected to plate discipline and the ability to get on base, that’s as far as they’ll go. Defense can take a catcher or shortstop all the way to the majors, which is where I expect Kozma to end up.
Whether he’s an impact player in the majors is a different question. Right now, he just looks like a guy who’s going to get there.
IC – With Mark Hamilton’s injury history he’s an “unproven” Russell Branyan who almost couldn’t find a job this year. I’m using hyperbole as it certainly isn’t out of the question that he may see time but I think his hitting prowess is overstated and his downsides (injury, defense) are understated.
Lou – I’d tend to agree regarding the speed/power line.
I don’t understand the lack of respect Avatar is showing Freese. He has done nothing but play well in the minors. His overall OPS is .916 and he is said to be a good 3rd baseman. Honestly, I still hope Craig get a chance to play 3rd for the Cards, but Freese needs recognition for what he has done so far.
Bryan Anderson – I’ll help pull the rickshaw – Dude is 23. I know being young is not a good excuse four years in a row, but dude is 23. Can we have LaRue take over bullpen catcher job?
Also, I know someone must have an answer to this… Why can’t Holliday play in right (more forward looking as Ludwick cycles out)?
AZ- I am not trying to quibble but Branyan has played 800+ games and has had nearly 2500 AB’s in his career. If Hamilton accomplishes even half of that that hardly is only a whiff of the MLB.
I think you and many of us expect each individual propect to be a star and do not give credit to a prospect’s value as a reserve or a trade chip. To not have to pay for such reserves or to be able to trade such a prospect for what you need at the trading deadline has alot of value.
If Hamilton is a Stairs or or Branyan or even half of that as a reserve or a trade chip I am happy with that. Anything more and your extremely early categorization of him will reflect poorly on your future commentary which I generally enjoy.
Hamilton’s a decent hitter, though injuries have taken away a year of development. Its positive for the Cards to have him training at Memphis, for depth. Craig too is nice depth; better to have too many players than too few.
Love the mobile site. Long time reader but rarely post. This mobile feature almost makes me as happy as when everyone convinced Eric to keep the site going. Since I don’t post much at all I thought i’d take the time now to thank all of the contributors to this site as it is great to read up on the babybirds
IC- I think the point is why would a team trade their own valuable asset to get Mark Hamilton who “might” turn in to Branyan, when the real Branyan (i.e. the proven Branyan) is readily available. It’s just an indication as to the value of Hamilton as a trade chip.
Why might a team trade “their own valuable asset to get Mark Hamilton”? Several reasons. First, remember that there are teams out there for whom league-average production at first base would actually be an upgrade. Teams like that might be willing to roll the dice on Hamilton growing into such a player, as long as the cost wasn’t too high. Second, one team’s “valuable asset” is another’s “fifth man on the depth chart.” Nobody is ever going to trade their top shortstop prospect to get Hamilton, no matter how well he can mash. But a team that has three shortstop prospects in the minors, all of them blocked by a star in the majors, might be willing to deal the third one for him — and that third one could be a “valuable asset” from OUR point of view, because we’re not richly endowed with prospects at that particular position. Finally, the asking price for Hamilton is likely to be lower than for Branyan. That matters to some teams.
Something I’d really like to see AZ or Erik or somebody do is take a look at other teams’ minor-league systems and see where they’re strong and where they’re weak. Who are the probable trade partners for Mo to make minor-league deals with, that involve both teams trading from strength? I’m sure Mo has done that kind of homework; it would be interesting to try to duplicate it and see where the deals involving guys like Hamilton are there to be made.
As has been discussed before, teams seldom trade prospects for prospects for whatever reason (though it seems to be happening a little bit more).
Whither Bryan Anderson? What a fall from grace. I haven’t been tracking the future redbirds much more than a year, but when I started, Anderson was a major player on these type of lists. What happened?
Adopt the DH? While, we’re at it, let’s adopt the Two Catchers Rule, and the Extra Middle Reliever Rule so we can make sure our farm system is always emptied out.
What a truly stupid reason to ruin the National League.
Anderson was only highly projected because there was some thoughts he could still be a decent catcher. When combined with the fact that it is becoming obvious that he won’t be a catcher and probably a LF, then his offence actually switches from a plus to negative. Combine that with injuries and you have a huge fall.
@RedC: The National League is already ruined. Home-field advantage is determined by who wins the all-star game. The AL wins the all-star game because it has fewer teams, and thus fewer token players representing teams that don’t have anybody who belongs in the game. (The NL used to win the ASG almost every year when it had fewer teams than the AL.) Thus, the AL always has an advantage, however small, in the WS.
If both leagues have the DH, then there’s no reason for either league to have this advantage. Fifteen teams per league. There’s always at least one interleague series going on, which is probably good for attendance and TV ratings.
Thus, the NL re-establishes parity with the AL. It doesn’t ruin the NL. It solves a structural problem that currently gives the AL an obvious advantage.
Baseball at every level now has a DH. Players increasingly specialize in their training and development, from pre-puberty through college. NL teams often draft college pitchers who in many cases haven’t even tried to develop their hitting skills since high school. Resisting the DH made sense when baseball still had pitchers who’d grown up as all-around ballplayers, but those days are gone.
Good take Mr. Shu