I’ve said on numerous occasions that I’m predisposed against most Latin prospects when it comes to making some kind of a “top prospect” list. I won’t argue that the Cardinals have made great strides in their presence in that area over the last few years. They nearly even netted a huge prize in Wagner Mateo before health concerns arose. (As an aside, anyone who was railing against the Cardinals at the time of voiding that contract should be eating a heaping pile of crow right now. The concerns about his eyes were not limited to the Cardinals and Mateo remains unsigned by the other 29 teams.)
Those caveats and improvements admitted, I’m still not certain that the Cardinals have demonstrated a consistent or even pronounced ability to find/develop Latin American players. It’s telling that in a very down year for the system as a whole, Baseball America still shows just 5 prospects among their top 30 coming out of that region. The Cardinals rank above a measly 6 teams in top 30 Latin prospects.
This is a big part of why I’m very skeptical of “names” the Cardinals have signed in that area. Eventually, this point of view is going to become outdated assuming the Cardinals find a way to improve their talent acquisition from the area but, right now, there should still be valid concerns about the Cardinals’ Latin American prospect pipeline.
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The more I read things like this the more I wonder what the Phillies are doing so well. I thought that when they hired Arbuckle from Atlanta it was possibly one of the biggest Front Office signings any organization had made in recent history. They seem to do well at finding star talent in the draft and latin america.
They should get a free pass on the Latin kids for at least 2 more years, by that time the number in the Top-30 should see a big spike just from kids already in the system, this year they have Ben Jukich on the list but Grabiel Hernandez isn’t.
This analysis is too sensitive to have much meaning. If the Mateo signing had gone through or either De la Cruz or Salas had been in the top 30 (I think both were last year) then we’d be tied for 14th overall. Given our late start, not that bad.
I could honestly care less about the Cardinals and their ability to bring in top notch Latin American talent.
The Draft is so much easier to build a team through, and I think it may eventually end up being cheaper, with the way signing bonuses are starting to take off with these 16 year olds.
I’m not sure what prompted this post. When the Cardinals replaced Jocketty with Mozeliak, one of the major areas of deficiency at the time was the utter lack of scouting or even presence in Latin America. They’ve made strides, and the Mateo signing initially was a sign that things were headed in the right direction. Despite the disappointment of that experience’s outcome, they’ve still made progress, and the fact that they’re now ahead of some teams after being at Ground Zero just 2 years ago demonstrates that. Plus, the fact that they’ve managed to do that without an impact prospect yet shows the complete opposite of what azruavatar implies–that the talent coming from that pipeline should be disregarded out of hand.
But these things do not happen overnight. We’re not talking about rebuilding a MLB roster or a farm system; we’re talking about penetrating an entire area of talent evaluation the team had not been actively involved in for years.
On top of that, the prospects they’re signing are teenagers–these are guys who still haven’t left puberty yet. That’s probably why there’s not a lot of prospects in the top 30–you’re comparing boys to men.
Danny-
You couldn’t care less. Couldn’t. Couldn’t. Could care less is the opposite of what you mean. Couldn’t care less. Seriously.
Thanks Aaron.
I actually have some sympathy for the Cards in this area. What they’re trying to do in LA is like an NFL team signing and developing 16-year-old kids on the basis of a punt, pass, and kick competition. They rarely get to see the kids play in real competition — the settings are camps and showcases, which are controlled by the agents and coaches. (Wagner Mateo, IIRC, was one of the rare Dominican stars who played on a team against international competition.)
Then teams overpay for Cuban stars, who indeed play competitively, but even so rarely seem prepared to play in the U.S. (I’m not exactly sure why Cuban ball is so different — do they play fewer games? Or am I thinking of Japanese players?)
When you’re signing 16-year-olds out of showcases and specialized training programs, you’re working with blinders. You don’t know how big and strong the kids are going to be when they grow up, you don’t know how they react to competition, you don’t have any insight into their learning abilities or learning styles, and you don’t get to observe how well they adjust to higher levels of competition.
That last point is partially true of virtually everybody who’s signed or drafted. American HS kids are typically so much bigger and stronger than their peers that they haven’t had to learn many of the game’s nuances. College guys are better-known quantities, but even that can be a trap. The Cards can’t seem to resist the temptation to go for the guys with the most polish and training while avoiding the ones who’re less developed as athletes and players but have potentially higher ceilings.
Tough business all around.
Az, this seems to be a little premature to be evaluating the Cards’ abilities in this area of the world. I was always amazed that it took the Cards organization so long to truly dedicate resources in both Latin America and Asia for scouting and development. Unfortunately, DeWitt and Jocketty seemed to have no foresight into how the business of team building was going to change during their tenure. Now we are stuck in a catch-up mode, and I have the same questions in this area as I do with Luhnow’s capabilities. Clearly the organization has dedicated themselves to improving in this area, but are the people in charge the best to facilitate this change?
So the Cards are only above 6 teams. Had Mateo’s contract not needed to be voided, they’d be right in median of MLB teams w/ 6 of 30, not to mention having a player of Mateo’s supposed quality amongst their ranks. Seems like the bad luck w/ Mateo is the only cause for your concern, azru
The following Cardinal prospects were signed out of Latin America as free agents…Eduardo Sanchez, Donovan Solano, Francisco Samuel, Fernando Salas. There’s others still in the system at the A level, so it’s not like the Cardinals haven’t found anybody worthy of note from Latin America in recent years. It’s just that because they’re typically younger than drafted players, they’ve got more of a developmental curve and they’re harder to judge at that stage than, say, a college player 5 years older.
Obviously, judging Latin American prospects at this stage is a bit risky, because few ballplayers generate a lot of buzz when they’re 16 years old. But lamenting the Cardinals’ perceived lack of success in finding players in that area seems a bit premature.
Wagner Mateo just signed with the Diamondbacks for 512k, good for him I wish him the best. Just wish we could have decided to sign him for less because of the eye issue but still give him a chance.