A question recently posed to me has led to some further questions. As we entered 2009, the depth in the outfield was lauded as one of the real strengths for the team. With Rick Ankiel, Chris Duncan, Ryan Ludwick and upcomer Colby Rasmus. It was hard to envision a scenario in which we didn’t have a productive fly catching crew.
Obviously, they all contributed to a certain disappointment of expectations. Ankiel showed an inability to hit anything that wasn’t a straight fastball, Chris Duncan was a shell of his former bad fielding self, Ryan Ludwick regressed considerably and Colby Rasmus failed to breakout in a spectacular way. Rightly or wrongly, the combination of tepid results led to some frustration with the outfield. The collapse of several minor league outfielders (notably Jon Jay and Daryl Jones) further eroded the perceived depth from the beginning of the season.
Fast forward to 2010 and the Cardinals find themselves with a continuation of that “problem” heading into 2010. With Colby Rasmus and Matt Holliday occupying two spots for the long term and Ryan Ludwick occupying RF for 2010, there’s a limited number of outfield at bats that can be claimed by a farm product. With a plethora of lackluster options, the Cardinals are looking to have a very crowded outfield in Memphis this year.
The three most likely candidates to wind up with the major league club would seem to be Allen Craig, Joe Mather and Jon Jay. The decision making process starts with Mather. If his wrist is healthy and the organization thinks that he can capably handle centerfield, he makes the most sense for the club as a spot starter for Rasmus, Albert Pujols and some David Freese insurance. If the Cardinals take a closer look at defense, Jon Jay would seem to be the most likely candidate as a light-hitting but (according to TotalZone Rating metric) excellent fielder. Alternately, Allen Craig offers the most potential as a bat off the bench.
Beyond those three, there’s a duo of prospect zombies in Shane Robinson and Nick Stavinoha. Neither off them project as anything more than replacement level and that’s a generous assessment of their talent. The Cardinals have, historically, been more apt to err on the side of prospect caution awarding at bats to the player that isn’t in their long term plans in order to keep him for the short term (see Jarrett Hoffpauir-Daniel Descalso, 2009).
Having already accumulated four players for the Memphis outfield, Daryl Jones and Tyler Henley seem slotted for a return to Springfield. The 2009 performance by Jones would certainly warrant another go around at Double A. Henley, however, seems to be catching the short end of the stick after posing a .303/.367/.482 line during 473 PAs last year. While Daryl Jones still seems inexplicably young — he’ll be just 23 this June — relative to the time we’ve been drooling over his athleticism, Tyler Henley is no spring chicken turning 25 this June. The Cardinals proclivity to use older “rookie” players (Freese, Mather, Schumaker) has been notable in recent years but whether it’s an aberrant sample or some kind of a trend is unknowable.
The 2010 outfield in the upper minors seems to be shaping up as a crowded one once again. Hopefully, it’s a more productive one than it proved itself to be in 2009.
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Do they want Hamilton to get any OF AB’s?
I’ll bet Henley is in Memphis.
I don’t count Shorey out. If he finds his power stroke again he could surge.
Cards need to make a decision which RH OF they want to keep – Robinson or Stavi and release the other.
It is not like there is a lot of room in Springfield – Swauger, Dejesus/Rappaport, Brown/Hill, Chambers, Smith, Pham knocking on the door. That’s before Jones or Henley.
And not mentioning Marti is irreverent! :)
Of the guys Carioca mentioned, I’m inordinately interested in Curt Smith. The Cards’ system is a dead end for a right-handed-hitting 1B/LF. But the guy has hit everywhere. Even if you discount the player of the year award in the Appy League in 2008, he still hit in PB and SPR as a 22-year-old.
He doesn’t have anything left to prove in PB, especially as a 23-year-old, but there’s not much room to advance.
Pham is “knocking on the door”? Maybe on the trap door leading to the cellar, or into the refuse chute. He still hasn’t shown he can hit, and the clock is ticking.
I think they will release Stavi if Mather proves to be healthy. There was a cryptic comment somewhere along the line from JMo on Stavi, “He has nothing left to prove in Memphis.” If he was talking about Rasmus, it means JMo wants Rasmus on the 25 man roster. In the case of Stavi, I think it means there is no room for him on the Memphis roster because better players are bubbling up from below.
I was surprised stav wasn’t released this offseason…we have better, younger players ready to fill his spot
I’m thinking Joe mather’s injury situation gave Stavi a free get.out of jail pass to ST. Mather and Craig have a stranglehold on the righthanded bench OF spot. Now Stavi is the odd man out.
Watch Ludwick. He may be traded this year, either as an expendable chip in a trade for a needed player such as a closer or a third baseman, or he may be traded due to sliding production. That opens a spot in St. Louis for Craig to play regularly. I’m predicting LaRussa will fall in love with Craig’s power and MO will seize the opportunity to gain financial wiggle room. In any case, this will free up a bench spot, which will go to Jay who can be Craig’s late-inning defensive replacement and a left-handed pinchhitter. This opens a spot at Springfield: Jones and Henley will both spend a good part of the season at Tripple A.
It might be best for Mather and the organization if he starts in CF in Memphis.
I think Robinson and Stavi have done all they can do. We need to trade them for other AAAA prospects and see if both trading partners might benefit from a change in scenery.
I would like to start Mather, Henley, and Jay in Memphis. Jones needs a healthy season at AA. That still leaves Craig with nowhere to go. Maybe he plays 3rd at Memphis and Hamilton plays 1st at Memphis.
A lot of guys who are in a make or break period of their careers. Hoping for the best for them!
Mather at 3B in Memphis, Daryl Jones in LF at Memphis, Henley in RF at Memphis, and Robinson and Jay platooning in CF at Memphis.
Stavi goes to Japan, or wherever the hell John Gall went. Craig wins a backup OF job in StL.
@shaneo69: In 2006, both John Gall and Scott Seabol played a half season in Korea. The results are:
John Gall 124 PA, .243/.333/.299
Scott Seabol 169 PA, .163/.237/.301
I seriously doubt Stavi will play well if he goes to Japan or Korea.