Prospect Confidence Polls
Posted on March 14th, 2010 by erik in Prospect Confidence Polls, tags: Aaron Luna, Adron Chambers, Allen Craig, Daniel Descalso, Daryl Jones, David Freese, Jon Jay, Mark Hamilton, Pete Kozma, robert stock, Ryan Jackson, Shane Robinson, Steven Hill, Tommy Pham, Tyler HenleyI’m sorry that we skipped the FR Reader rankings this year. That was lame of me. In order to make it up to you, the reader, I thought we’d try something a little different. This idea was inspired by Bryan Smith’s article at FanGraphs and some of the cool stuff he does. (Bryan is very smart).
Please click on this poll and enter your input on some of our hitting prospects. This poll is designed to seehow confident Future Redbirds readers are on a prospect’s ability to be an average big leaguer during their first six full seasons. The wOBA presented for each prospect is the minimum based on their defensive position and skill for them to be a 2 WAR player, or a major league average regular. DO NOT CONSIDER IF THE PLAYER IS CURRENTLY BLOCKED. And remember, this is what you think the player is capable of averaging during their first six major league seasons, or in other words, when they are under team control.
For those of you not hip to wOBA, well, get with it. wOBA is the new and improved OPS. Instead of just combining slugging and on-base percentage, wOBA takes the run values of offensive events and then scales it to a rate that is scaled to on-base percentage. You can read up on wOBA here and here and here.
To give you some frame of reference, Albert Pujols had a .449 wOBA last year. NL average is about .335. To give you further frames of reference, Nate McLouth had a .350 wOBA last year. Billy Butler had a .369. Ryan Sweeney had a .330. Cristian Guzman had a .301. Adam LaRoche had a .357. Orlando Hudson had a .342. Got it? Good.
Again, the reason why I picked the wOBA for each prospect is based on the minimum requirement based on their position and defensive skill to be at least two wins above replacement player, or in other words, an average player. For their position, I took the position they currently play, or what Baseball America pegged them for, as in the case of Steve Hill. (Catcher was a nice idea, at least). Their defensive skill is hidden, but it comes from their CHONE projected defensive runs above average. If a projection wasn’t available, I just went with their scouting report and fudged a number. This explains a bit why Ryan Jackson’s offensive threshold is so low.
You can skip any player if you’re not quite sure, but try and answer as many as possible. It’s on a scale of 1-5, 1 being not confident at all, while 5 would be that you feel very confident the player will hit for that minimum batting requirement on average during their first six seasons in the majors.
Thanks for your input.
Poll away. <——–Um, yeah. Go here.
Entries (RSS)
From the results I am seeing, it seems as if there are only three prospects that most people care about or at least have any confidence in. Jones, Craig, and Stock.
That seems about right to me. Though following the Vasquez disaster last season, I still take Stocks short seasons results with a grain of salt.
Where’s my cookie?
-RBB
This is awesome. Well done, Erik & Co.
@RedBirdBrain: it’s in your computer. Kidding….I think.
So far the fans are very, very confident in Allen Craig. Tommy Pham, not so much.
Great turnout so far, by the way. You guys are awesome.
Is there a way to track the results without retaking the poll?
Props to whoever gave Ryan Jackson a 5. There’s a bettin’ man.
@Nick C: I will publish the results within the week. I’d share them now, but I’m afraid it might influence how people vote.
Erik, is there going to be an equivalent survey for pitching prospects? Maybe regarding anticipated FIP/xFIP/tRA and some weight on innings pitched?
@arch support I’m thinking of a way to do that. Maybe estimate K’s, BB’s. I’m not sure how to approach HR’s yet. I’m open to any suggestions. Pitchers are tougher nuts to crack.
Liam – Note on R. Jackson that the wOBA is .301. That is not that hard of a level to achieve. If he makes the majors he is a good bet to hit that number. Personally I gave him a 2 because I don’t think he’ll ever hit enough to sniff the majors.
erik – I was just wondering if there is somewhere we can track/view the results if we have already taken the poll. I don’t want you to publish them. I am guessing by your answer that this is not possible.
Why no love to Tony Cruz? He had a down year with the bat, but he is still learning a new position. Last year was his first full year playing catcher. He had two good seasons at the plate before last year. I’m hoping his bat comes back this year.
Not a fan of the logistics of this poll. It puts more weight on the player’s offensive production than their defense. While a player’s ability to hit is definitely a way to guarantee he’ll be an everyday major league player, it’s not the only one.
Forsch31 – If a prospect cannot hit in the minors it is unlikely that they will ever see the majors. The only (rare) exceptions seem to be SS and C.
@Forsch31: Huh? Please re-read my post, defense is a HUGE part of the equation. I’ve already built in the defensive adjustment for their position, and I put in either their defense as CHONE projected it or I went by their scouting report. Here, I’ll share the spreadsheet.
@Erik – re: cookie. You bastard!!!!!
Kidding – great work on the poll. I don’t comment much here at FR but I’m a daily reader and appreciate all the hard work you guys put in around here.
-RBB