Comments on: Prospect Confidence Poll Results

By: stevesommer05

stevesommer05 — Wed, 17 Mar 2010 18:13:31 +0000

@erik: I've got some ideas on that, just have to put them in a coherent format. I think asking the right question in the poll to get at the peak is more important than the math to get to WAR distributions

By: erik

erik — Wed, 17 Mar 2010 12:09:43 +0000

@Steve Sommer: Right, I like the idea. Not sure how to implement it at the moment, but I'm all ears to suggestions.

By: Steve Sommer

Steve Sommer — Wed, 17 Mar 2010 03:08:50 +0000

And by peak I mean peak in the cost controlled years.

By: RydeShelby

RydeShelby — Wed, 17 Mar 2010 03:04:46 +0000

The Cards have a lot of budding Skip Schumakers.

By: Liam

Liam — Wed, 17 Mar 2010 02:51:31 +0000

My expectations for Pham’s bat jumped after he moved off short. At the time, I hoped it was a short-term move to take some pressure off that side of the game, but if that’s what it were, it hasn’t worked over a reasonably long term.

By: Steve Sommer

Steve Sommer — Wed, 17 Mar 2010 02:43:31 +0000

I’d think the next step(s) would be to gather information about peaks… ie we think Craig is likely to have at least a 0.355 wOBA, but what’s the peak, 0.365-0.370 maybe with a confidence of 2-3. Given those data points we could work up a WAR distribution over the cost controlled years… which is Bryan’s goal as I understand it.

By: erik

erik — Wed, 17 Mar 2010 00:23:10 +0000

@easy: Consensus as far as hitters, you should say. Even Joe Strauss is hyperventilating over Shelby Miller. But yeah, I'd say it's a good return on the farm system if we can get a couple of average players to go along with Colby. And let's not forget about the Walrus, who should be a 3 WAR player or maybe a bit better in Toronto.

By: easy

easy — Wed, 17 Mar 2010 00:11:32 +0000

Fun exercise and I have almost no quarrel with the consensus. I had Descalso at 4 but that’s the bat in my belfry. I also give Kozma a little better chance than others. Pham’s the wild card but I don’t blame anyone for being pessimistic.
The ratings do seem to reflect the consensus ratings of the system. Quite a few guys who will have careers but no impact players.